Scots must win and then hope

Scotland host Holland tonight knowing that even a surprise victory - in a game manager George Burley says is one of the biggest of his career - may not salvage their chances of reaching next year's tournament. In their final qualifier, the Scots must beat a side who have won all seven of their games so far to make sure of second spot in Group Nine, although they will still need results in the other groups go their way.

Only eight of the runners-up from Europe's nine qualifying groups earn a play-off berth to contest the continent's final four spots at the World Cup. The second-placed team with the worst record is eliminated and, after losses to Norway and Macedonia, that could be Scotland. "Even before a ball was kicked, we were written off," Burley said. "We're against one of the top countries in the world, so it's up to us to win the game. We know the qualities of Holland but we can't fear them. Everybody will have to perform to their maximum. We'll have to battle for the 90 minutes.

"From a player's points of view, from a manager's point of view, it doesn't come any bigger." Scotland have experienced this before. Poor results in their first two group matches at the 1978 World Cup meant that they had to win their final game against the Dutch to stand any chance of advancing to the next round for the first time. Scotland won 3-2 in a match featuring a goal by Archie Gemmill regularly cited as his country's greatest ever, but they were still eliminated on goal difference and have never advanced from the first round at any major tournament.

Scotland did manage to beat Holland 1-0 in a European Championship play-off in 2003, but failed to make it to the tournament after the Dutch won the second leg 6-0. A shock win looks even less likely with goalkeeper Craig Gordon aggravating a thigh strain in Saturday's 2-0 win over Macedonia, although Burley is optimistic midfielder Scott Brown, who scored the opener against Macedonia, will be fit.

"You want all your key players to be available but it's a squad game," Burley said. "If Craig is fit, it'll be a big bonus for us. We'll assess it tomorrow morning." Defeat against the Dutch, who were the first European side to qualify for the competition in South Africa, could let Norway slip into second place in the group with victory over visiting Macedonia. * With agencies Scotland v Holland, KO 10.30pm, Dubai Sports 1