Identifying favourites to win the next Super Bowl, 51 weeks away, is a foolish business.
Collecting clues from the most recent post-season is like expecting one Picasso painting to look like the next in a museum.
The temptation might be to tab champions New England Patriots as obvious favourites, and bank on the Atlanta Falcons – who came oh-so-close to capturing their first crown – as a rising force, sure to make another championship run.
History laughs at such obvious choices.
No team have won back-to-back titles since New England managed the feat in 2004 and 2005. Since then, only the Seattle Seahawks have even reached the big game in consecutive seasons.
As for the Falcons, no Super Bowl losers have returned to the game the next year since the Buffalo Bills in 1994, the last of their notorious four consecutive disappointments in the championship game.
In the NFL, too many bad things can happen to a successful team from season to season. Injuries. Roster changes. Ageing stars. Unfavourable schedules. Complacency. Unlucky breaks.
Then there is the competition. Other teams get better. They also take advantage of the same kind of luck that fell the Patriots and Falcons way this time.
After all, the football is an odd-shaped object that rarely takes a true bounce. Just ask all the Falcons who touched the fickle ball before New England receiver Julian Edelman plucked it out of the air on the Patriots game-tying drive last Sunday.
In any case, now that we have established that picking Super Bowl favourites a year in advance is a tricky exercise, let us give it a fearless go anyway.
We concede it is still hard to ignore the Patriots, in defiance of all that evidence against repeat champions. Somehow, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady make them one of the AFC’s top contenders every year, despite Belichick’s mystifying penchant for shedding key players in favour of cheaper and ever-younger talent.
Should New England trip over their trophy, two AFC teams seem poised to fill the void.
Still strong defensively, the Denver Broncos need only have young quarterback Trevor Siemian evolve into an effective game-manager to become AFC bullies again. Or, if you believe that a talented young team with both offensive and defensive stars, that won most of their games with clutch, fourth-quarter play, is destined to take another step up, then the Oakland Raiders are your pick.
In the NFC, the Falcons look like a classic one-year wonder, ready to sink back into the pack. Their NFC South rivals, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers, will make it tough for Dan Quinn’s team even to repeat as division champions.
Aaron Rodgers should have the Green Bay Packers back in contention, since he is as good as an NFL quarterback can be. But until the Packers fix their porous defence, even Rodgers is not enough.
The teams to watch? Perhaps the Dallas Cowboys will get even better years from their newbies, quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott. But in the NFL, when you catch the rest of the league by surprise and go 13-3, there tends to be regression to the mean.
In the NFC East, the New York Giants look prepared to make a move. Their defence smothered some of the NFL’s best offences last year, and quarterback Eli Manning is still capable of winning a third Super Bowl – if the Giants can get there.
Then there are the Seahawks, with gifted stars on both sides of the ball. Too bad they get distracted by the media, social media and every mirror they pass. If football ever becomes their focus again, they will be dangerous again.
Maybe even next year.
Our best guess: New England and Seattle in Super Bowl LII – a rematch of the 2013 classic – with the Seahawks getting their revenge.
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