The surest way to destroy a perennial champion in baseball is from the inside. A great franchise can get fooled by their own success into thinking they can do no wrong. They react to success by dishing out cushy contracts to core members (locking them up well beyond the point where they can be expected to remain productive) and react to failure by overspending on outsiders.
The result is a bloated, inflexible roster that handcuffs the team in future seasons, leaving them incapable of quick-fix solutions to intractable problems.
All they can do is wait until all those contracts expire and endure the inevitable decline.
This is what happened to the Baltimore Orioles in the late 1990s (with Albert Belle, Scott Erickson, Brady Anderson) and the New York Yankees (Bernie Williams, Jason Giambi and Mike Mussina) in the mid-2000s, and it is what is happening to teams like the Chicago Cubs (Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano, Kosuke Fukudome) and the Houston Astros (Carlos Lee, Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman) right now.
By contrast, the Philadelphia Phillies were in a fairly enviable position. Coming off back-to-back National League pennants, and with the makings of another champion in 2010, they had their core locked up in long-term deals - but mostly smart contracts that would expire at just the right time for the team to retain precious flexibility. This arrangement left the Phillies a defined window for fulfilling their mini-dynasty, but also gave them the flexibility to cut ties with one or more declining veterans at exactly the right time and use the savings to re-load and keep the ship afloat.
That is what makes the Phillies' signing of Ryan Howard to a five-year, US$125 million (Dh459m) contract extension on Monday so puzzling. The deal tethers the Phillies to a lumbering first baseman - at a staggering cost of $25m annually (or a little less than one-fifth of the current payroll) - through his mid-30s, when players almost inevitably suffer significant declines in production.
Such deals are how perennial champions turn themselves into bloated underachievers.
For argument's sake, let's give the Phillies the benefit of the doubt. Howard, 30, has been a model superstar, combining consistency and durability (at least 144 games played in each of the previous four seasons) with unmatched power (an average of 50 homers and 143 RBI in those same four seasons).
He has shown a willingness to work on weaknesses - losing weight and improving his defence during the past couple of seasons - and he has an impeccable reputation off the field.
Let's also assume the Phillies can project their future revenues accurately and are confident they can afford the Howard deal from start to finish. By the time the contract starts in 2012, they will be out from under Jimmy Rollins, Brad Lidge and Jamie Moyer, etc.
There are still plenty of reasons why the move was ill-conceived.
For $25m a year (only Alex Rodriguez has a higher AAV, or average annual value) you should expect a flawless player. But Howard is far from flawless. He remains susceptible to left-handed pitching (.207; .298; .356 in 2009, .226; .309; .446 for his career) and breaking balls (witness the Yankees' dismantling of him in the 2009 World Series). And despite his improvements on defence, he is still just average with the glove.
There was little incentive to make the deal now.
Howard was already signed through 2011, and the Phillies could have used the next two years to get a better gauge on how Howard aged through his early 30s, how the rest of their roster shaped up, and how the market for first basemen played out.
First base is a particularly easy position to fill. Want a superstar? Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez and Lance Berkman all reach free agency after 2011. Want to spend your money at a more premium position (such as shortstop) and sign a stop-gap at first base?
Inevitably, the pundits have singled out Pujols and Fielder as the big winners in the Howard deal as their market prices just went up.
But I will add another group of winners, the other four teams in the National League East.
None have shown any ability to stop the Phillies' run atop the division. But with the Howard move, the Phillies are showing an ability to do it themselves.
* The Washington Post
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 2.9-litre, V6 twin-turbo
Transmission: seven-speed PDK dual clutch automatic
Power: 375bhp
Torque: 520Nm
Price: Dh332,800
On sale: now
The bio:
Favourite film:
Declan: It was The Commitments but now it’s Bohemian Rhapsody.
Heidi: The Long Kiss Goodnight.
Favourite holiday destination:
Declan: Las Vegas but I also love getting home to Ireland and seeing everyone back home.
Heidi: Australia but my dream destination would be to go to Cuba.
Favourite pastime:
Declan: I love brunching and socializing. Just basically having the craic.
Heidi: Paddleboarding and swimming.
Personal motto:
Declan: Take chances.
Heidi: Live, love, laugh and have no regrets.
WE%20NO%20LONGER%20PREFER%20MOUNTAINS
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Founders: Ines Mena, Claudia Ribas, Simona Agolini, Nourhan Hassan and Therese Hundt
Date started: January 2017, app launched November 2017
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Private/Retail/Leisure
Number of Employees: 18 employees, including full-time and flexible workers
Funding stage and size: Seed round completed Q4 2019 - $1m raised
Funders: Oman Technology Fund, 500 Startups, Vision Ventures, Seedstars, Mindshift Capital, Delta Partners Ventures, with support from the OQAL Angel Investor Network and UAE Business Angels
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
Company%20profile
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The specs
Engine: four-litre V6 and 3.5-litre V6 twin-turbo
Transmission: six-speed and 10-speed
Power: 271 and 409 horsepower
Torque: 385 and 650Nm
Price: from Dh229,900 to Dh355,000
The specs: 2018 Maserati GranTurismo/GranCabrio
Price, base Dh485,000 (GranTurismo) and Dh575,000 (GranCabrio)
Engine 4.7L V8
Transmission Six-speed automatic
Power 460hp @ 7,000rpm
Torque 520Nm @ 4,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 14.3L (GranTurismo) and 14.5L (GranCabrio) / 100km
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Company%20Profile
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Formula%204%20Italian%20Championship%202023%20calendar
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Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
