Ahead of the second-round matches of in the NHL Stanley Cup, Rob McKenzie looks at each match-up and makes his prediction on who will progress on.
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Pittsburgh Penguins v Washington Capitals
The marquee match-up of the second round of the NHL playoffs is being billed, inevitably, as Alexander Ovechkin versus Sidney Crosby.
Thus it has been ever since their spectacular debuts in 2005/06. As rookies both topped 100 points – 106 for Ovechkin, 102 for Sid the Kid. Between them they have gone on to win five league MVP awards (3-2, advantage Ovechkin).
While both have played at a consistently high level, the same cannot be said of their teams.
Crosby’s Pittsburgh were ascendant in his early years: they reached the Cup final in his sophomore season and won the trophy the year after that, besting the Detroit Red Wings in seven games.
But then decline set in as Pittsburgh players were too often waylaid by injuries. Crosby alone has had a high ankle sprain, concussion, broken jaw and mumps. And their goalie, Marc-André Fleury, saved his worst work for the play-offs. The team in recent years has drifted.
Ovechkin’s squads in Washington have followed an opposite arc: slow start, late rise.
Washington won only one play-off round during his first five seasons. And even as they became a regular-season force, their post-seasons continued to disappoint: in 2009/10, Washington had the most points of any team in the regular season, but did a face-plant and fell to to the Montreal Canadiens in the first round.
The blame fell on Ovechkin, the enigmatic Russian with a US$124-million (Dh455.4m) contract and a chump-change attitude to defence.
At long last, though, Ovechkin and Crosby are allied with crews worthy of their captains. Washington were the league’s points leader this season and rank as the Cup favourite.
Pittsburgh started slowly but have been transformed by a new coach and the arrival of a handful of hungry youngsters, and they thoroughly dominated the New York Rangers in the first round.
And yet the match-up that sways this series is not likely to be the clash of superstars. The biggest difference is more apt to be in net.
Washington have Braden Holtby, the best goalie still standing in the play-offs. In the first round he shut out the Philadelphia Flyers twice and allowed only five goals in six games.
The Penguins on the other hand have Matt Murray, a late-season call-up from the minor leagues. With Fleury concussed, Murray was stellar against the Rangers but will be facing a far more dangerous foe in this round. And it is often the case with understudies who take centre stage that once they stumble, they then fall hard.
If Pittsburgh have an advantage it is that everything seems to be clicking for them. Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel combined for 21 points in the first round.
In contrast, Washington’s forward Evgeny Kuznetsov, a top-10 scorer in the regular season, has only one goal in his last 26 games.
Prediction: Washington in six.
Tampa Bay Lightning v New York Islanders
The eastern conference’s other semi-final features the electrifying John Tavares. The New York captain was a difference-maker in his team’s first-round defeat of Florida Panthers.
With 54 seconds left in Game 6 he found a loose puck in the crease and slid it past Robert Luongo to tie the game, and then he scored the double-overtime winner. Tavares finished the first round with nine points.
Tampa Bay, having piled up play-off experience during last year’s run to the finals, will provide tougher competition for New York than Florida did.
Tyler Johnson is flying again after his long recovery from a broken wrist. Ben Bishop in net and Victor Hedman on the blue line are better than their New York counterparts.
On the other hand, injuries have sidelined the star scorer Steven Stamkos and the steady defenceman Anton Stralman.
Prediction: A coin toss, really, but let’s say Tampa in seven.
Dallas Stars v St Louis Blues
Out west Ken Hitchcock, the St Louis coach, returns to Dallas, where he guided them to Stanley Cup victory in 1999.
On the opposite bench is Lindy Ruff, whose Buffalo Sabres lost that final to Dallas.
In other words, both coaches have a lot of experience. And this season, their teams finished only two points apart. Their regular-season series went 4-1 in favour of St Louis, but three of those wins required extra time.
This one is hard to call. Dallas has the stronger offence but St Louis have a better top-four on defence as well as the series’ best player in Vladimir Tarasenko and best goalie in Brian Elliott.
Prediction: St Louis in seven
San Jose Sharks versus Anaheim or Nashville
The Anaheim Ducks and Nashville Predators play Game 7 of their first-round series late Wednesday – also the night when the second round of the play-offs was kicking off with the Tampa Bay v New York opener.
San Jose was the surprise of the first round, squashing the favoured Los Angeles Kings in five games. The Sharks possess a deep roster and have finally shaken free of their history of playoff choke jobs.
What they did to LA, they can do to whoever survives the Ducks-Preds deciding match.
Prediction: Either way, San Jose in six
rmckenzie@thenational.ae
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