When Uefa announced seven years ago that the 2016 staging of the European Championship would be for the first time contested by 24 nations, it was assumed that the move would allow a number of the continent’s smaller football powers to sneak into the tournament through the back door.
As it has transpired, a fair few of them are likely to be in France next summer, but their qualification can be explained only partly by the changes in the qualifying format.
With two matches to go, Iceland, Wales and Northern Ireland have either qualified or are on the cusp of doing so. The notable thing about all three sides, none of whom have ever taken part in a European Championship, is that they sit top of their respective groups, meaning they would be leading the race to reach the competition proper even under the old rules.
Austria, who have been to the finals only once before, when they co-hosted in 2008, have already qualified while Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania and Norway still have a chance of finishing in the top two and qualifying automatically. Montenegro, Estonia, Finland and Slovenia could yet secure a play-offs spot.
There were concerns about the impact that expansion would have on the tournament: a 16-team Euros, which has been the case since 1996, seemed to be working well, and critics argued that the increase in participants would lead to a dilution of quality and competitive games.
Instead, the process has been enlivened by the expansion, and smaller nations seem emboldened as they sense a chance to make history.
This was apparent when Slovakia beat Euro 2012 champions Spain, when Wales defeated the Belgium of Eden Hazard, Kevin de Bruyne and Vincent Kompany and when Iceland did the double in qualifying over the Netherlands.
Sides from less prominent football nations have been given something to play for beyond their own national and professional pride, the result being one of the most entertaining and enjoyable qualification processes in years.
The opening up of the Euros should ensure a consolidation of many recent gains by former outsiders. The presence of Gareth Bale in this Wales side is clearly a major boost, but it would be unfair to label Chris Coleman’s outfit a one-man team when they have not conceded a goal from open play in almost two years of competitive action.
Iceland’s startling accomplishment of reaching Euro 2016 with two games to spare has been the result of long-term planning and forward-thinking from the country’s Football Association. Northern Ireland, Albania, Slovenia, Slovakia and Norway have shown the merits of togetherness, organisation and tactical discipline.
One of the prominent arguments against a pre-qualifying phase for the likes of San Marino, Andorra and Gibraltar is that these nations will only improve through regular competition with their larger, football-rich neighbours.
The same logic can be applied to the tournament proper: the opportunities afforded by a larger European Championship both reflect the continuing improvement of smaller nations and is a way to encourage further development by offering a tangible reward for progress.
Perhaps the anticipated reduction of quality in France next year will not be as noticeable as first assumed.
Iceland, Wales, Slovakia and Albania have triumphed over major footballing countries in qualifying, and there is no reason why they cannot do the same at Euro 2016.
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