Why 12 big football clubs are joining the European Super League – in six charts

Twelve of Europe's biggest football clubs sparked outrage on Monday by announcing they were forming the European Super League, or ESL.

The new tournament is a direct challenge to the existing European football structure, centered on Uefa's Champions League, and has sparked a bitter conflict between football's organising bodies and club owners.

Uefa reacted to the ESL by accusing its members of “taking football hostage” and threatened to ban the rogue clubs from domestic leagues, while world football's governing body Fifa has said ESL players could be prevented from playing at the highest international stage in the World Cup or Euros.

Fans of the 12 clubs are also unhappy. The official supporters groups of the 'big six' English clubs who signed up – Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham – have all condemned the move, criticising the ESL format in which the 15 founders cannot be relegated, guaranteeing them yearly revenue while smaller clubs outside the ESL are shut out.

Former players have also slammed the decision, with Manchester United former defender Gary Neville slamming the “pure greed” behind the ESL.

Now that the ESL clubs are at risk of being shut out of other prestigious competitions and face potential legal action from Uefa, many are asking whether the move is really worth it.

Here are six charts to help understand the potential reasons behind the decision.

Football’s most valuable clubs support the European Super League

The ESL is an elite venture. Its 20-team format in which the 15 founders are permanent members of the league is aimed at every game being a lucrative high-profile clash watched by millions.

Most of Europe's biggest clubs seem to have subscribed to the idea, with all 12 breakaway clubs among the continent's 20 most valuable, according to Forbes.

The notable exceptions are Paris Saint-Germain in France and Germany’s Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, who have refused to join the ESL.

European Super League clubs are losing revenue

The 12 breakaway clubs might be among Europe’s richest, but the last two years have not been easy financially.

The coronavirus pandemic caused major disruption to football across Europe, with games postponed and crowds banned from stadiums. As a result, revenue suffered.

All 14 clubs in Deloitte’s Money League, which includes the 12 breakaway clubs, reported drops in revenue in 2019/20.

Data is not yet available for 2020/2021, but the report estimated clubs will have missed out on over €2 billion ($2.41bn) in revenue by the end of the season due to the pandemic.

Matchday fans less of a priority

The banning of fans across much of Europe due to coronavirus resulted in a drop in matchday revenue for almost all clubs.

Matchday revenue has long since been eclipsed by the revenue from television and commercial deals, but the pandemic has exacerbated the shift. Deloitte reported a decrease for almost all of the top 20 European clubs in 2019/20, and predicted matchday revenue would be “close to nil” for the 2020/21 season.

While official fan groups may be outraged at the prospect of their teams being kicked out of familiar domestic leagues to join an elite competition, match-going fans may not be the top priority for owners from a commercial standpoint.

Clubs such as Real Madrid and Barcelona have millions of fans globally, most of whom will never attend a game in person, but instead offer revenue through television deals and merchandise.

European Super League offers big money

Falling revenue has led the owners of many big clubs to look for alternative sources of income. The European Super League provides one.

The US investment bank JP Morgan is financing the league and has committed €3.25bn to starting it, along with a €200m-€300m "welcome bonus" for each club.

The Wall Street giant’s funding is secured against the multi-billions of dollars that are expected to come from TV broadcasting deals.

The financial incentives for playing in the ESL are expected to outstrip Uefa’s Champions League, while also potentially lowering the value of Uefa’s TV deals by taking away many of the most-followed clubs.

European Super League eliminates risk

One of the most criticised aspects of the ESL is its format in which founding members cannot be relegated and will always take part in the league.

The move is a fundamental break with existing European football structures in which teams move up and down leagues depending on their performance.

In England, the top four teams qualify for the Champions League each year, with a further two or three clubs joining the Europa League. For big clubs, failure to do so means missing out on the lucrative financial bonuses from European football, as well as the resulting hit to prestige that can affect signing players or commercial deals.

While many of the ESL founders – such as Real Madrid, Juventus, and Barcelona, joined in the last decade by clubs such as Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain – are annual regulars in the tournament, other big clubs such as Arsenal and Tottenham have recently failed to qualify.

The ESL aims to guarantee these clubs revenue by removing any risk of them qualifying, despite Arsenal and Tottenham currently being ninth and seventh in the English Premier League.

Its format of having two 10-team leagues followed by a knock-out stage also means clubs will have more guaranteed European fixtures than the four-team group format of the Champions League.

The ESL might boost the value of clubs such as Manchester United

The bombshell announcement on Monday had an immediate impact on the value of some of the ESL founders.

Stocks in Manchester United and Juventus were buoyed by the news as investors saw value in their inclusion in the league.

However, some clubs outside the ESL, such as Borussia Dortmund, also rose in value.

But with fans groups threatening boycotts, Uefa announcing a rival revamped 36-team Champions League, and the threat of prolonged legal and PR battles with rival bodies and potentially even governments, the ESL’s long-term financial impact remains to be seen.

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