When the final whistle blows at the Bernabeu on Wednesday night there will be at least two certainties facing the revamped Uefa Champions League.
Firstly, either reigning champions Real Madrid or the 2023 victors Manchester City will be absent from the last-16 draw that takes place on Friday in Switzerland.
And secondly, the knockout stages of European football's premier club competition are set to be without one of the two most ruthlessly prolific goalscorers in world football.
Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland were both on target for their respective clubs in the play-off phase first leg, with the latter scoring twice at the Etihad Stadium – but it was Mbappe's Real Madrid that prevailed 3-2.
Mbappe's miscued shot put his team 1-0 up in the first leg, the French striker's 24th goal of the campaign across competitions
Haaland's double, that took his season's tally to 27, proved insufficient to earn City a first-leg advantage after late goals from Brahim Diaz and Jude Bellingham secured victory for Real.
Speaking after City's 4-0 thrashing of Newcastle United on Saturday – when January signing Omar Marmoush bagged a 14-minute hat-trick – manager Pep Guardiola made clear the size of the task facing his side in the Spanish capital on Wednesday.
“The margin to win in Bernabeu in that position, everybody knows that if you ask before the game, the percentage to go through … we arrive at one per cent, it will be minimal, but as much as you have a chance, we will try, that's for sure,” he said.
If City are to have any chance of producing a turnaround, they will need Norwegian goal machine Haaland – who trained on Tuesday despite jarring his knee against Newcastle – to be spearheading the unlikely comeback.
Haaland's stats since his switch from Borussia Dortmund in 2022 have been phenomenally consistent – notching 117 goals in 133 games, including a remarkable 11 hat-tricks.
In the Premier League, the 24-year-old has 82 goals in 91 appearances which has seen him secure successive Golden Boots.
Haaland's 52-goal haul helped City win the treble – including the club's first European Cup – in his first season, while his 27 league strikes last season helped them seal a historic fourth title in a row.
The current campaign, though, has seen a collapse in form from City that has all but ended their hopes of a fifth successive title. They are fourth in the table, a mammoth 16 points behind leaders Liverpool with 13 games to go.
And City needed a victory over Club Brugge in their final group-stage game to even reach the play-offs, after finishing five points shy of an automatic qualification spot.
During City's horror run at the end of 2024, that saw them lose nine times in 13 games, Haaland was blunt about his form. “First, I'm looking at myself,” he admitted after a 2-1 loss at Aston Villa in December. “I haven't been good enough.”
That mea culpa sparked an equally blunt response from his manager. “When you have problems at the back, in the middle, it is for everyone, it is a team, it is not about one player,” said Guardiola. “It would be easy, if it was just one player.”
And his faith in the big striker – who signed a new 10-year deal with the club last month – remained clear when Guardiola insisted Haaland took over the captaincy against Newcastle.
“When Kyle [Walker] left, Kevin [De Bruyne] became the first but I nominated Erling, not them,” said the Catalonian, who had agreed a contract extension himself less than two months earlier.
“When a player is going to be here 10 years, sooner or later, you need to take the responsibility.”
Over in Spain, Mbappe appears to be clicking into goalscoring gear at just the right time after a mixed start at Los Blancos – his 17 La Liga strikes leave him second only to Robert Lewandowski's 20 for Barca in the Pichichi Trophy chase.
Mbappe – who became PSG's all-time top scorer with 256 goals in 308 appearances before leaving Parc des Princes last summer – is on a roll with seven in five La Liga games, including a first Real treble against Real Valladolid. His eight goals in nine January matches also saw him pick up the club's Player of the Month award.
“I don’t see anything new,” manager Carlo Ancelotti said of Mbappe's form in Tuesday's pre-match press conference.
“He’s motivated, physically well, he shows it … He handles the stress before the game very well, he’s very calm. He has good stress management. At the moment he is doing very well.”
The same cannot be said of Real's form which has stalled of late. Two points from a possible nine in La Liga has allowed Barcelona to retake top spot, albeit only on goal difference, with Atletico Madrid close behind.
And Ancelotti was quick to dismiss Guardiola's suggestion the record 15-time European Cup winners have all but secured their last-16 place.
“He does not truly think that, tomorrow I'll ask him before the game 'Do you really think you've got a one per cent chance?'” said the Italian coach, who revealed that centre-half Antonio Rudiger will be fit to start but right-back Lucas Vazquez would only be ready for the bench.
“He really thinks they've got more chance than that … we don't think we have 99 per cent chance.
“We have a small advantage that we have to take advantage of, and try to play the same game we set up in the first leg, which went well.”
