Asia’s convoluted World Cup qualification process saw the UAE kick-start their campaign with a 3-1 win over Qatar in Doha on October 5 before succumbing to a 1-0 home defeat to Iran five days later.
It leaves the national team third in Group A on three points behind leaders Uzbekistan and Iran.
Plenty of matches have been played to get to this point, and there are still many to go. But at least there is something tangible to aim for at this stage.
With 18 teams left, there are eight places for the main event in the United States, Mexico and Canada to play for.
The UAE know that if they finish in the top two of their six-team group, a first World Cup appearance since 1990 will be theirs. Fail to do that, and they still have a chance to make it, but things get a little complicated.
Direct qualification
The third round of Asian qualifying involves 18 teams, split into three groups as follows.
Group A (world rankings in brackets)
Iran (20)
Qatar (34)
Uzbekistan (61)
UAE (69)
Kyrgyzstan (102)
North Korea (110)
Group B
South Korea (23)
Iraq (55)
Jordan (68)
Oman (76)
Palestine (96)
Kuwait (136)
Group C
Japan (18)
Australia (24)
Saudi Arabia (56)
Bahrain (80)
China (87)
Indonesia (133)
The top two teams of each group qualify directly for the World Cup.
The fifth and six placed sides are out – but those finishing third and fourth remain in with a shout.
Fourth-round repechage
The six sides who finish third or fourth in the groups are then split into two groups of three teams each. The teams will play against each other once in a centralised venue. The winners of each group qualify for the World Cup.
Still, there is yet another safety net for those who don’t top the groups.
Fifth-round final chance
The runners-up of each three-team group face each other home and away in a two-leg play-off. Even then, the winners are not quite able to book their flights to the main event in the United States, Mexico and Canada.
The absolute last chance
If things seem complicated so far, then it goes even more weird right at the last.
The winner of the two-team play-off will be Asia’s representative at an inter-confederation play-off tournament.
That competition will involve six teams – one from each continental confederation apart from Europe, plus one additional team from the confederation of the host country – to decide the last two World Cup places.
Two of the teams will be seeded based on the Fifa rankings. The seeded teams will play the winners of the first two knockout games involving the four unseeded teams.
Make sense?
UAE’s third round results and fixtures
Thursday, v Qatar at Ahmed Bin Ali Stadium in Doha – UAE won 3-1.
Tuesday, v Iran at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium in Al Ain – UAE lost 1-0.
October 10, v North Korea at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium in Al Ain.
October 15, v Uzbekistan at Bunyodkor Stadium in Tashkent.
November 14, v Kyrgyzstan at home.
November 19, v Qatar at home.
March 20, 2025, v Iran away.
March 25, 2025, v North Korea away.
June 5, 2025, v Uzbekistan at home.
June 10, 2025, v Kyrgyzstan away.
What are their chances?
The UAE could not have gotten off to a better start, recording a 3-1 win over back-to-back Asian champions Qatar in Doha. That was followed by a 1-0 defeat to Iran in Al Ain.
Iran and Qatar are by far the strongest teams in Group A, meaning the UAE have already faced their most difficult opponents in their first two matches.
Three points is a decent return for Paulo Bento's side, leaving them third behind leaders Uzbekistan and Iran in second on goal difference.
Next up for the national team is the visit of North Korea on October 10, followed by a trip to Tashkent five days later to face Uzbekistan.
“It is going to be a long race and journey, and nothing will be decided in the first two games,” Bento, the UAE coach, said.
