Chelsea look to get knockout strategy back on track in FA Cup after Kepa's spot of bother

In his 400 days since taking charge of Chelsea, Thomas Tuchel has guided them to four major finals in four different competitions. He’s won two and lost two, but can convincingly argue that the global reach of the pair he was victorious in — the Champions League and Club World Cup — mean he is more than breaking even.

The lost finals — last May against Leicester City in the FA Cup, and Sunday’s defeat via a marathon penalty shoot-out to Liverpool in the League Cup, were domestic prizes — and in the second of them, Chelsea can hardly be scorned for not providing amply to a brilliant contest, nor to adding a fresh talking point about Tuchel’s detailed strategic thinking.

The German has a knack of successfully negotiating knockout competitions. Two successive Champions League finals, with two different clubs — Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea — in the last two seasons endorse that. Both were journeys characterised by telling substitutions at key stages, and if any manager can truly claim to influence the high-pressure, one-against-one duel that is a penalty shoot-out to decide the destiny of a trophy, Tuchel is that manager.

He won a further ‘final’ last August, the one-off Uefa Super Cup, victory over Villarreal decided by shoot-out and featuring a change of goalkeeper at the end of extra-time.

On that occasion, Kepa Arrizabalaga concentrated a full two years worth of emotion into 20 minutes. He, the most expensive goalkeeper in history, had lost his place as Chelsea’s first choice in 2020. But Tuchel, advised by a team of analysts and his own instincts, deems Kepa superior in one aspect to Edouard Mendy, the keeper who had eclipsed Kepa in the hierarchy: Saving penalties. So Kepa came on for Mendy simply for the shoot-out against Villarreal. He kept out two of Villarreal’s seven penalties, Chelsea winning it 6-5.

“Proof,” said Tuchel at the time, “that Kepa is better in this discipline,” detailing the process of data analysis, consultation and prematch discussion with both Mendy and Kepa about the tactic of replacing the main gloveman with his tall deputy if penalties were needed.

Nor is it ever just about the shooting and saving. Kepa’s brief, but heralded role in the Super Cup included his being booked, for gestures and movements deemed to unsettle one of Villarreal’s spot-kickers.

Fast-forward to Abu Dhabi last month, and more carefully rehearsed mind-games around another crucial Chelsea penalty. This one came in extra-time of the Club World Cup final, with Chelsea drawing 1-1 with Palmeiras. Success from the spot would spare Chelsea a shoot-out tie-breaker. Cesar Azpilicueta feigned as if he was going to take the penalty, drawing the attention of Palmeiras players who, by word and gesture, sought to unsettle him. It was a ruse. Kai Havertz, standing clear of the hubbub, stepped up late to take the spot-kick, and scored.

“Brilliant,” beamed Tuchel of the Azpilicueta decoy, “how [Azpilicueta] protected Kai for the penalty.”

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The trouble with any strategic novelty is that it seldom carries a lifetime guarantee. Kepa again replaced Mendy just before the shoot-out on Sunday, and, in a roulette of spot-kicks where standards had been set as high as the football during the 120 minutes of open play, Kepa saved none of Liverpool’s 11 kicks, the shoot-out extending deep in sudden death. Kepa had to take Chelsea’s 11th kick and he missed.

After the game, Tuchel would not criticise his goalkeeper, his penalty-saving specialist, for a failure in penalty-taking, and he is expected to continue his studied nurturing of Kepa’s reputation, which reached rock bottom in the months before Tuchel replaced Frank Lampard last year.

“Nobody deserves blame for missing a chance,” said Tuchel yesterday, also exempting Mason Mount for not seizing opportunities to win the League Cup final during its goalless two hours. Kepa may well start as Chelsea set about the next bid for a knockout prize, against Luton Town, of the second-tier Championship, on Wednesday with a place in the FA Cup quarter-finals at stake.

It’s a fixture with its own ghosts for Kepa from earlier in his up-and-down Chelsea career. He was the designated FA Cup keeper throughout last season’s run to the final, including in a fourth round meeting with Luton, when his error threatened a comeback from the underdogs with Chelsea leading 2-0. It finished 3-1. Lampard was sacked two days later.

So are the first 400, eventful days of Tuchel’s reign framed, between cup ties against Luton. In between them are three trophies, two lost finals, and some hit-and-miss strategising around penalties. A busy Chelsea and their manager hope no shoot-out is required this evening.