Make no mistake about it, Lewis Hamilton’s defeat in France has all the hallmarks of a title-winning freight train coming off the rails.
And the signs are that world champions Mercedes are in crisis.
Recent history at Paul Ricard suggested this was as close as it gets to a nailed on victory for them. They have led all but one lap of the last two events there and triumphed from pole each time.
So Red Bull’s success was not just a victory but a sign.
Their title challenge is picking up speed and after seven consecutive double championships, history may be about to turn its back on Brackley.
Defeat in France also comes ahead of a string of races likely to favour the Austrian outfit; back-to-back events at their home track near Graz, which is usually Hamilton’s Achilles Heel. He has won the race twice, of course, but always struggles there.
If you take the wily old champion’s word that the latest defeat was down to outright power, it makes Red Bull favourites for another three of the next seven – all speed tracks, including Hamilton’s home circuit, Silverstone.
If he were to lose there, at his citadel, where he has won a record seven times, it would be a catastrophe.
Unless things change, the world champions are staring down the barrel of a summer of continual pain.
The championship looks close but Mercedes have a difficult car and are struggling to keep up, caught in the eternal F1 vortex: more wing means grip but lost speed, less wing means speed without control.
The last Grand Prix also proved where the answer lies for Mercedes. No amount of Hamilton talent will make a difference.
His only fault was a lack of defensive action when Verstappen came thundering past to snatch the lead with a lap and half to go.
Former teammate Nico Rosberg called Hamilton’s actions unusually “soft” because he could have moved across in front of his rival to defend his position but did not.
I agree with Nico, but I’m willing to bet there was a good reason. Hamilton would have given anything for more cushioning when his tyres were down to the canvas at the finish of the race. Any kind of lateral movement could have spelled disaster.
It had only been a fortnight since Verstappen’s Pirellis blew while leading and an easy 25 points went begging.
As they prepare for Sunday, Mercedes battle a bewildering array of unknowns: why is the handling so erratic? The tyre wear so high? The speed so low? The strategy ineffective?
They swapped the two chassis between the drivers in France and that is always a sign of a desperate team or a paranoid driver. Although there is plenty of paranoia to go around between Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas, this was a team move.
The race data makes for horrifying reading at Brackley. Hamilton and Bottas were the slowest two cars on the entire grid through the speed trap, Hamilton clocking 320.7 to Verstappen’s 337.0kph.
When Sky TV interviewer Rosberg asked Red Bull boss Christian Horner if they would go after Mercedes' controversial front wing at the stewards, his old boss Toto Wolff snapped “Are you trying to stitch us up? We’ve paid you enough in all those years.”
Wolff will probably insist it was a joke but there was an edge to his words, a palpable tension in the way they were blurted out.
Certainly, Hamilton cannot simply use racecraft to battle his way out of this one. Verstappen is as fast, as dogged and as relentless and has a better car.
So the answer can only come from the drawing board. Mercedes will have to engineer their way out of trouble. And you wouldn’t bet against them doing that.
But there is an old F1 aphorism about race cars born bad: you can bring poise to a thoroughbred but you can’t make a donkey fast.
Without Hamilton’s remarkable talents, Verstappen would surely be long gone with six wins in seven GPs, rather than three. Instead the Dutchman is still within striking distance just 12 points up the road.
So Mercedes may be fretting but Hamilton can quietly smile to himself.
Wolff will reflect that Bottas, languishing in fifth, has failed to finish second this year, let alone win, and but for his British driver this could already be a very sticky season for the man sitting in the hot seat.
Mercedes will certainly have renewed appreciation of their star turn as the focus turns to renegotiating Hamilton’s record £39.8m salary in the next few months.
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from our neighbourhood series:
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SE%20(second%20generation)
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The specS: 2018 Toyota Camry
Price: base / as tested: Dh91,000 / Dh114,000
Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 298hp @ 6,600rpm
Torque: 356Nm @ 4,700rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
F1 2020 calendar
March 15 - Australia, Melbourne; March 22 - Bahrain, Sakhir; April 5 - Vietnam, Hanoi; April 19 - China, Shanghai; May 3 - Netherlands, Zandvoort; May 20 - Spain, Barcelona; May 24 - Monaco, Monaco; June 7 - Azerbaijan, Baku; June 14 - Canada, Montreal; June 28 - France, Le Castellet; July 5 - Austria, Spielberg; July 19 - Great Britain, Silverstone; August 2 - Hungary, Budapest; August 30 - Belgium, Spa; September 6 - Italy, Monza; September 20 - Singapore, Singapore; September 27 - Russia, Sochi; October 11 - Japan, Suzuka; October 25 - United States, Austin; November 1 - Mexico City, Mexico City; November 15 - Brazil, Sao Paulo; November 29 - Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Read more from Mina Al-Oraibi
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
SPECS
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SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S24%20ULTRA
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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Where to donate in the UAE
The Emirates Charity Portal
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
Al Noor Special Needs Centre
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Emirates Airline Foundation
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
Emirates Red Crescent
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Noor Dubai Foundation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
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