Lord's Test: Can Jofra Archer deliver on his return and are India truly reliant on Jasprit Bumrah?

India bounced back in the second Test against England in Edgbaston to level the five-match series 1-1.

New captain Shubman Gill enjoyed a perfect Test as he smashed a double century and a ton, helping India complete a comprehensive 336-run victory.

Fast bowlers Mohammad Siraj and Akash Deep picked up 17 wickets between them to set up a mouth-watering clash in the third Test that begins at Lord’s on Thursday.

England have their work cut out as they look to contain India’s in-form batting line-up and also tackle an impressive pace attack.

Who is in the firing line – India or Archer?

After England's bowlers conceded over 1,000 runs in the second Test at Edgbaston, changes were inevitable. Even in the first Test, India had managed to score over 800 runs, including five centuries, which put the spotlight firmly on England’s bowling.

With the new Dukes balls going soft and out of shape very early and the wickets surprisingly flat, England are changing their tactics.

Coach Brendon McCullum has called for a lively pitch at Lord’s. While that means their own batters will face an even sterner test against a red-hot pace attack that will be bolstered by the returning Jasprit Bumrah – who was rested due to workload management – it will also give the home team the best shot at curtailing India’s top order.

The reason behind England’s strategy is Jofra Archer. The right-arm quick is making a long-awaited return to red ball cricket after years on the sidelines due to injuries. Even though he has played barely any first-class cricket, let alone Tests, in the last four seasons, Archer is the most potent weapon in England’s armoury.

Former England captain Michael Vaughan has serious doubts over the Test readiness of Archer, which is understandable given the express quick does not have a significant body of work coming into the match. If India manage to survive his initial burst, Archer might feel the pressure in his subsequent spells, especially with the temperature set to cross the 30° Celsius mark in London this week.

But what else can England do? They are putting all their eggs into one basket – Archer’s opening and second spell. If he is required to return for a fourth spell, India’s batters would have already done their job. It is a high risk strategy, but one that can stop the visitors from posting another score of 500.

England need this plan to work because if it doesn’t, they will be in for a harrowing series. And that will also have major ramifications for the Ashes later in the year.

One thing is for sure: the hosts can’t afford to dish out another flat deck and invite India to bat first.

Bumrah is back but are India really dependent on him?

That might seem like a staggering query. Bumrah, after all, is among the greatest fast bowlers of the modern era and has a stupendous record in Test cricket; he has the lowest average in the history of Test cricket among pacers with at least 200 wickets.

But there is an equally incredible record, one which is attracting more attention recently. As good as Bumrah is, India are not getting the results they desire when he is in the playing XI. Even though his own bowling figures remain pristine.

With Bumrah in the team, India have won 20 and lost 22 Test matches. But without him in the team, India have won 19 and lost just five Tests.

Most of the wins without Bumrah came at home, where spinners dominated. However, away from home, the losses have been mounting, even with the pace ace in the team.

With Bumrah in the side, India lost to New Zealand at home late last year and then lost the five-match Test series in Australia, where he got injured again. In the first Test against England in Leeds, Bumrah went wicketless in the second innings after picking up five in the first as England chased down 371 with ease on the final day.

There are a few ways to look at it – either opponents are trying to play out Bumrah or other Indian bowlers are not getting utilised properly when he is in the team. Or that Bumrah is beginning to lose his edge in Test cricket after multiple injuries.

The bottom line is India can get results when Bumrah is not playing.

In the second Test at Edgbaston, Mohammad Siraj picked up six wickets in the first innings and replacement pacer Akash Deep finished with 10 in the match as India romped to a record 336-run win.

India’s bowling plans seemed a lot more balanced in Birmingham and not centred around one spell, which can happen when Bumrah is around. That meant all bowlers had to support each other throughout the day, think about wickets, and not just hold their end.

Siraj, in particular, improves his game dramatically when leading the attack in Bumrah’s absence. Siraj averages 33 with the ball when Bumrah is bowling alongside him. Without the star pacer, Siraj’s bowling average falls to 26. He also has more five-wicket hauls when ‘alone’ – three compared to one.

That does not mean India do not win when Bumrah is in the team, or that they don't need him. What it does mean though, is that if Bumrah continues to reduce his workload due to fitness issues, it should not give the team management sleepless nights.