The Indian Premier League might have lost some momentum following an enforced break due to the conflict between India and Pakistan earlier in the month, but has gone into overdrive soon after resumption over the weekend.
Within a couple of days, Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Gujarat Titans and Punjab Kings all secured their play-off spots, while Lucknow Super Giants became the fifth team to be knocked out of the tournament with 10 points from 12 matches, joining Chennai, Rajasthan, Hyderabad and Kolkata on the sidelines.
That means only two teams remain in the race – Mumbai Indians and Delhi Capitals. And both teams face off on Wednesday in what is the most crucial match of the league phase.
Qualification chances for Mumbai and Delhi
Mumbai and Delhi have two matches each remaining in the league section of the tournament. Hardik Pandya’s five-time champions are on 14 points while the Capitals are on 13.
The equation is straightforward for Mumbai. If they win at the Wankhede Stadium on Wednesday, they will qualify for the play-offs as their points tally would swell to 16; Delhi can only go up to 15 if they then win their last game. Interestingly, both teams’ final league match is against the already qualified Punjab.
However, if Mumbai lose, Delhi will move up to 15 points. In that case, Delhi only need to win their last match against Punjab, or hope Shreyas Iyer’s Kings defeat Mumbai on Monday, to qualify for the play-offs.
Wednesday’s day-night match is, therefore, effectively a shoot-out for the last play-offs spot.
However, there is a third factor in play which could alter calculations. Heavy rain has been forecast for Mumbai for most of the week, as a large part of the country is preparing for the start of the monsoon season.
If Mumbai and Delhi end up sharing points, that would mean both sides will have to win their final matches against Punjab.
IPL organisers have taken into account the prevailing weather in the country, along with security considerations, and moved the remaining fixtures around accordingly.
Reinforcements for Mumbai
Mumbai are clear favourites going into the match. After an all too familiar listless start to the tournament – losing four of their first five games – Mumbai have won six games on the bounce to move into pole position for the play-offs.
Delhi have gone in the other direction. For the first half of the IPL, they looked the most settled squad with good depth in batting and bowling. But, as has been in the case in previous season, Delhi have found ways to falter when it matters most.
Qualification to the play-offs, which seemed a formality at one stage, is now slipping away and looks a tall order without pace spearhead Mitchell Starc, who decided not to return to India after the conflict-enforced break.
Mumbai too are likely to feel the heat of player exodus soon. England all-rounder Will Jacks and South African duo Ryan Rickelton and Corbin Bosch will depart for their respective national duties after Mumbai's last league match on Monday.
Jonny Bairstow will replace compatriot Jacks for the final phase of the tournament. Sri Lankan all-rounder Charith Asalanka and England pacer Richard Gleeson have been signed by Mumbai.
If Mumbai do make the cut, they will have a new set of problems to tackle. All three departing players have played important roles in helping turn their campaign around.
Asking the replacements to come in and deliver straightaway in a do-or-die clash is unfair, but the situation in similar at other franchises.
Mumbai should not worry too much about the departure of their foreign contingent as their local stars – including batter Rohit Sharma who recently announced his Test retirement – had been firing on all cylinders, at least until before the pause in the league.
