Here we go again, as Major League Baseball opens the new season this weekend, with our annual fool’s errand: predicting who will rule the land.
As usual, MLB presents a glittering line-up of handsome, obvious choices. They would be the teams with recent successes, strong cores of returning players and big bank accounts to load up on even more talent.
This year, the crystal ball lights up for the defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs, the American League champion Cleveland Indians and those returning division winners who always have their chequebooks at the ready — the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Boston Red Sox.
How can we ignore those four show horses? We cannot. The Cubs still have their Most Valuable Player in Kris Bryant, their three Cy Young Award candidates in Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks. They also have the magnificent vibe from unloading the baggage of 109 title-less years.
Cleveland are the same team that dominated throughout the 2016 season with their starting pitching, finished with an even beefier bullpen, thanks to the mid-season acquisition of Andrew Miller.
They now also have added free agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion to the AL’s second most productive offence.
The Dodgers won the National League West again last season, partly because they have the best pitcher on the planet in Clayton Kershaw and Rookie of the Year shortstop Corey Seager, already among the very best at his position.
But they also used their spending power — MLB’s only $200 million-plus (Dh734m) payroll — to keep their top two free agents from leaving. Kenley Jansen, the game’s most overpowering closer, and run-producing third baseman Justin Turner stayed in Dodger blue, thanks to Dodger green.
The similarly well-funded Red Sox bought a prize free agent pitcher last year, David Price, then scored the most runs in baseball to win the AL East. This winter, they traded for another prize left-hander, Chris Sale, and added him to a staff that includes surprise Cy Young winner Rick Porcello.
Yes, Boston are without their power-hitting, face-of-the-franchise superstar David Ortiz for the first time in 15 years. But coming into their prime years are young stars Mookie Betts and shortstop Xander Bogaerts. They also have added top prospect outfielder Andrew Benintendi.
That foursome of teams may comprise the intimidating elite, but the other 26 franchises can take heart: this is baseball, home of the constantly evolving surprise.
The Kansas City Royals were almost laughably bad until 2014, and won a World Series in 2015. Cleveland were just an empty promise, until they put it all together last season. Few saw their World Series run coming.
Baseball has a way of humbling their aristocrats, and rewarding their ambitious under-class.
Teams seemingly in need of key pieces find them overnight. Journeymen have career years. Struggling starters find their perfect pitch.
So, with a nod to MLB’s penchant for keeping everyone guessing, we present two teams who might ruin it for the big boys.
The usually competitive St Louis Cardinals missed the play-offs last year, and their line up seems a bit dishevelled for such a well-run franchise.
But bounce-back years for starters Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright, and a Cy Young-worthy effort by new star Carlos Martinez will have them back in the NL post-season.
In the AL, it is time for another long-time sad-sack, the Seattle Mariners, to have their day. The line-up is anchored by Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager. Their pitching is sneakily solid. They can win the West.
And if not them, well, then someone else will flip the script. Someone always does.
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