It is never easy to tell when a succession of violent acts amounts to a civil war. But the news on Wednesday evening of another Syrian massacre, in which some 80 people are said to have been killed in the village of Qubair near Hama, looks like a watershed.
The peace plan put forward by Kofi Annan, the UN and Arab League mediator, and approved by both the Syrian regime and the opposition, was already on its last legs. The ceasefire it called for is being ignored by both sides. The question now is what, if anything, Mr Annan can do to gain control of a situation that has slipped out of his grasp.
The reported deaths in Qubair seem to fall into the same pattern as the Houla massacre two weeks ago, where over 100 people were killed. The Syrian army softens up a rebel-held area with tanks and artillery, and then sends in regime-aligned thugs from nearby villages to slaughter men, women and children.
In Damascus, the regime clings to the fiction that foreign-funded "terrorists" are to blame for the massacres, though there is not a shred of evidence to back this up. Syria is clearly descending into sectarian conflict, with the regime's core supporters, the minority Alawites, who make up some 12 per cent of the population, serving as auxiliaries.
That is not to say that the rebel Free Syrian Army is sitting on its hands. Almost nightly Syrian television broadcasts the funerals of soldiers, and the military hospitals are filled with the injured. We must assume that these are the victims of Free Syrian Army attacks, not just army defectors who were shot for changing sides.
In the centre of this whirlwind sits the newly re-elected Russian president, Vladimir Putin, foremost backer of the Syrian regime. Perhaps the only thing that all sides agree on is the centrality of Mr Putin, and this puts him in a position of great diplomatic leverage which he is determined to exploit.
If this were a poker game, the chips would be the lives of Syrians. It began in early February when Russia and China vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on Syria, and the Annan mission was set up to heal the rift.
By journalistic tradition, the Annan plan is called a "peace plan". Its goal may be peace, but all diplomats know that its primary purpose is to get all sides engaged and start a process that may or may not reach a conclusion. The problem with such plans is that they have to be bland enough to suit all sides, and they lack any means of enforcement.
Seeing the imminent collapse of Mr Annan's plan, the Russians have now raised the stakes. They want to include Iran in a contact group that would align the policies of outside powers towards Syria. Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, insists this contact group should displace the existing "Friends of the Syrian People" grouping, made up of countries that want Bashar Al Assad toppled and which is meeting in Paris in early July.
Mr Lavrov is demanding a less "disproportional representation" of countries in Paris with, in addition to Iran, both Russia and China. Clearly a meeting under the Russian formula would be less about regime change and more about regime preservation.
This idea of bringing Iran into the fold is unlikely to fly in Washington. Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, told a gathering in Istanbul that the US was insisting on nothing less than complete regime change in Syria, what an aide to Mrs Clinton called a "post-Assad transition strategy, including Assad's full transfer of power". This prompted speculation that she was preparing to abandon the search for consensus at the UN and go it alone in removing the Syrian leader.
But this raises the question of who and how. The starting point for the Russian defence of the Assad regime, and that regime's ruthless military response to the opposition, is the shared assessment that US President Barack Obama is weak and unwilling to risk going to war in Syria, particularly when he has to face a war-weary electorate in November.
If the western powers are in a mess, they have themselves to blame. The Annan plan, as the Russians never cease to point out, does not call for regime change, but only political dialogue. The Americans are calling on Mr Al Assad to engage the opposition in dialogue and then consign himself to history. From Moscow's perspective, the Americans are trying to turn the Annan plan into a Trojan horse.
Given the end point of western policy it is hard to see why Mr Al Assad should even start the dialogue if, at the end of it, he and his cohorts are going to be removed, and their Alawite co-religionists left to the mercy of the Sunni majority.
We can be assured that the US and its allies will exert efforts to keep the Russians engaged. The message will be passed to Mr Putin that the Assad clan is on its way out, and he should join the winning side. Convincing Mr Putin of this may not be a totally lost cause, if the price is right.
A new policy analysis published by the Carnegie Moscow Centre warns foreign leaders not to treat Mr Putin as an immovable ideologue. "Putin is a transactional, results-orientated politician. He can be an important and valuable partner, but he will bargain hard to get the best deal he can. Despite the increasingly complex and complicated nature of ruling Russia, Putin still has all the domestic authority he requires to pursue his foreign policy objectives."
So what are his objectives? Top of the list must be not allowing the US to use the UN Security Council as a green light to change regimes that Washington does not like. Ultimately Russia wants to keep the upper hand on dealing with the Syrian crisis, and to maximise its rather weak position in the region. These goals do not in principle exclude the possibility of an orderly transfer of power in Damascus to some more credible leader than Mr Assad, who is clearly not cut out for the job. Unfortunately, it is probably already too late for that.
aphilps@theantional.
On Twitter @aphilps
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
RESULTS
1.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh 50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner AF Almomayaz, Hugo Lebouc (jockey), Ali Rashid Al Raihe (trainer)
2pm Handicap (TB) Dh 84,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner Karaginsky, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
2.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner Sadeedd, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard.
3pm Conditions (TB) Dh 100,000 (D) 1,950m
Winner Blue Sovereign, Clement Lecoeuvre, Erwan Charpy.
3.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh 76,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
4pm Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Bladesmith, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
4.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh 68,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner Shanaghai City, Fabrice Veron, Rashed Bouresly.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Teenage%20Mutant%20Ninja%20Turtles%3A%20Shredder's%20Revenge
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETribute%20Games%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dotemu%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsoles%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENintendo%20Switch%2C%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20One%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Akeed
Based: Muscat
Launch year: 2018
Number of employees: 40
Sector: Online food delivery
Funding: Raised $3.2m since inception
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Astra%20Tech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbdallah%20Abu%20Sheikh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20technology%20investment%20and%20development%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20size%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
How to help
Donate towards food and a flight by transferring money to this registered charity's account.
Account name: Dar Al Ber Society
Account Number: 11 530 734
IBAN: AE 9805 000 000 000 11 530 734
Bank Name: Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
To ensure that your contribution reaches these people, please send the copy of deposit/transfer receipt to: juhi.khan@daralber.ae
'How To Build A Boat'
Jonathan Gornall, Simon & Schuster
German plea
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the German parliament that. Russia had erected a new wall across Europe.
"It's not a Berlin Wall -- it is a Wall in central Europe between freedom and bondage and this Wall is growing bigger with every bomb" dropped on Ukraine, Zelenskyy told MPs.
Mr Zelenskyy was applauded by MPs in the Bundestag as he addressed Chancellor Olaf Scholz directly.
"Dear Mr Scholz, tear down this Wall," he said, evoking US President Ronald Reagan's 1987 appeal to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev at Berlin's Brandenburg Gate.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
UAE v United States, T20 International Series
Both matches at ICC Academy, Dubai. Admission is free.
1st match: Friday, 2pm
2nd match: Saturday, 2pm
UAE squad: Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Rameez Shahzad, Amjad Gul, CP Rizwan, Mohammed Boota, Abdul Shakoor, Ahmed Raza, Imran Haider, Sultan Ahmed, Zahoor Khan, Amir Hayat
USA squad: Saurabh Netravalkar (captain), Jaskaran Malhotra, Elmore Hutchinson, Aaron Jones, Nosthush Kenjige, Ali Khan, Jannisar Khan, Xavier Marshall, Monank Patel, Timil Patel, Roy Silva, Jessy Singh, Steven Taylor, Hayden Walsh
What is blockchain?
Blockchain is a form of distributed ledger technology, a digital system in which data is recorded across multiple places at the same time. Unlike traditional databases, DLTs have no central administrator or centralised data storage. They are transparent because the data is visible and, because they are automatically replicated and impossible to be tampered with, they are secure.
The main difference between blockchain and other forms of DLT is the way data is stored as ‘blocks’ – new transactions are added to the existing ‘chain’ of past transactions, hence the name ‘blockchain’. It is impossible to delete or modify information on the chain due to the replication of blocks across various locations.
Blockchain is mostly associated with cryptocurrency Bitcoin. Due to the inability to tamper with transactions, advocates say this makes the currency more secure and safer than traditional systems. It is maintained by a network of people referred to as ‘miners’, who receive rewards for solving complex mathematical equations that enable transactions to go through.
However, one of the major problems that has come to light has been the presence of illicit material buried in the Bitcoin blockchain, linking it to the dark web.
Other blockchain platforms can offer things like smart contracts, which are automatically implemented when specific conditions from all interested parties are reached, cutting the time involved and the risk of mistakes. Another use could be storing medical records, as patients can be confident their information cannot be changed. The technology can also be used in supply chains, voting and has the potential to used for storing property records.
Everton%20Fixtures
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The biog
From: Upper Egypt
Age: 78
Family: a daughter in Egypt; a son in Dubai and his wife, Nabila
Favourite Abu Dhabi activity: walking near to Emirates Palace
Favourite building in Abu Dhabi: Emirates Palace
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
North Pole stats
Distance covered: 160km
Temperature: -40°C
Weight of equipment: 45kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 0
Terrain: Ice rock
South Pole stats
Distance covered: 130km
Temperature: -50°C
Weight of equipment: 50kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 3,300
Terrain: Flat ice
Top 5 concerns globally:
1. Unemployment
2. Spread of infectious diseases
3. Fiscal crises
4. Cyber attacks
5. Profound social instability
Top 5 concerns in the Mena region
1. Energy price shock
2. Fiscal crises
3. Spread of infectious diseases
4. Unmanageable inflation
5. Cyber attacks
Source: World Economic Foundation