Run the numbers: seven billion adds to natural disaster risk


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Today the world population will officially reach seven billion according to the UN. Reaching that landmark reminds us of the massive challenges, including in the Middle East, created by an ever-increasing number of humans on the planet.

Growing populations are also driving another mega-trend - urbanisation through migration. In 1800, less than 3 per cent of the world's population lived in cities, yet by the end of 2008, this had risen to more than 50 per cent, and there were 26 "mega-cities" (cities of 10 million or more inhabitants) worldwide, including Istanbul, Cairo and Lagos.

Despite the economic success of these huge cities, governments at every level are preparing for the risks that these urban centres pose. For instance, will it be possible to meet the everyday needs of food, water and health, and also deal with the growing vulnerability of mega-cities to environmental stresses exacerbated by the effects of climate change?

There is already cause for some alarm. For instance, the tsunami in Japan this year forced Tokyo to reconsider its approach to nuclear power and to protecting its cities. The 2003 heatwave in Paris was so devastating because both the public and authorities were unprepared for dealing with such extreme weather conditions, which were worsened by building practices, especially the lack of air-conditioning.

During the 21st century, cities across the world will continue to grow. Energy demands will increase, particularly for transport of food, water and resources for industry and infrastructure.

The associated increased carbon emissions are contributing to global warming and pose their own climate risks. In China, where people are being subsidised to move from the countryside, cities have grown by a factor of two in only five years. The "heat island" effect in urban centres means temperatures are increasing about three times faster than over other land areas.

The main risk for cities on coastal plains is their increasing vulnerability to rising sea levels and river flooding, seen in the Bangkok floods now. There will be further episodes such as the one in New Orleans six years ago when it was hit by Hurricane Katrina.

In at-risk countries, such as the Netherlands, researchers are preparing for these type of problems. For instance, Delft University's hydraulic engineering department has been developing an early warning and monitoring system, which considers the effects of subsidence, to protect coastal communities.

The larger the urban area, the greater the damage that natural hazards can inflict; and increasingly it will be more difficult to protect life and property even if there is an effective warning system. As a recent hurricane in Houston, Texas showed, despite the known dangers from combined hazards such as winds and floods, there is now insufficient time to evacuate some cities safely, even highly developed ones.

So there is a pressing need for cities to develop emergency refuge areas. In most cases, refuges will need to be built from scratch. Engineers and planners are considering how to identify and design such emergency centres and how they should be connected to the wider urban system, including transport.

Training populations to use the centres effectively is also essential. Refuges have successfully withstood cyclones and floods in Bangladesh and, unlike those in some other developing countries, have been used by vulnerable communities, because they could take their farm animals with them - without the animals they would be destitute.

Emergency energy supplies for communities, essential for medical emergencies, should improve. This especially applies to advanced solar power that is effective even in cloudy conditions.

Research teams are collaborating in construction of "system dynamics" models for the operation of infrastructure, environment and socio-economic aspects of large cities. These models resemble computer programmes for global climate change and its connections to economic developments.

What these models need is more relevant environmental and socio-economic data. International agencies such as the World Health Organisation and the World Meteorological Organisation, as well as national governments, need to collaborate and make maximum use of new media. This will gather data showing how people experience both rapidly occurring hazards such as tornadoes, and slower, but still deadly, phenomena such as loss of crops from rising sea levels and salt penetration.

These mega-cities have begun to collaborate on information exchange through an initiative called C40 Cities, which coordinates policies for dealing with hazards, and to put more pressure on national governments to provide assistance, especially with finance and data.

Lord Julian Hunt is a visiting professor at Delft University. Yuguo Li is a professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Hong Kong

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Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic

Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km

On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025

Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000

What is cyberbullying?

Cyberbullying or online bullying could take many forms such as sending unkind or rude messages to someone, socially isolating people from groups, sharing embarrassing pictures of them, or spreading rumors about them.

Cyberbullying can take place on various platforms such as messages, on social media, on group chats, or games.

Parents should watch out for behavioural changes in their children.

When children are being bullied they they may be feel embarrassed and isolated, so parents should watch out for signs of signs of depression and anxiety

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Winner: Najem Al Rwasi, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Ahmed Al Shemaili (trainer)

2.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Fandim, Fernando Jara, Majed Al Jahouri

3pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner: Harbh, Pat Cosgrave, Ahmed Al Mehairbi

3.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m
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4pm: Crown Prince of Sharjah Cup Prestige (PA) Dh200,000 (D) 1,200m
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4.30pm: Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Cup (TB) Dh200,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer

Key figures in the life of the fort

Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.

Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.

Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.

Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.

Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.

Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.

Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.

Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.

Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae

How to apply for a drone permit
  • Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
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  • Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
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What are the regulations?
  • Fly it within visual line of sight
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Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history

4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon

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50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater

1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.  

1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.

1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.

-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.

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  5. Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
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  • 3rd Test August 12-16 at Pallekele
Dhadak 2

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Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri 

Rating: 1/5

Third Test

Day 3, stumps

India 443-7 (d) & 54-5 (27 ov)
Australia 151

India lead by 346 runs with 5 wickets remaining

How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
  1. Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
  2. Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
  3. Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
  4. Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
  5. Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
  6. The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
  7. Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269

*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year

Roll of honour 2019-2020

Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners: Dubai Hurricanes
Runners up: Bahrain

West Asia Premiership
Winners: Bahrain
Runners up: UAE Premiership

UAE Premiership
}Winners: Dubai Exiles
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes

UAE Division One
Winners: Abu Dhabi Saracens
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes II

UAE Division Two
Winners: Barrelhouse
Runners up: RAK Rugby