Uncertainty in Pennsylvania is a potential “perfect storm” for a contested election that would send market shockwaves, but investors are otherwise expecting a Joe Biden win.
"The market is a bit pre-positioned for the Democratic wave, unlike last time," John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank, said, adding that markets were in no way prepared for President Trump's victory in 2016.
He joins co-hosts Mustafa Alrawi and Kelsey Warner this week to discuss those lessons learned and outline market scenarios depending on the election's outcome.
A contested election, or one where Mr Biden wins the presidency but Democrats fail to take the Senate, would be a "train wreck", according to Mr Hardy, who has been writing about the lead-up to the election.
It would mean the risk of a “scorched earth” campaign by an obstructionist Republican Senate, which had a history under Obama in particular of blocking everything at all times.
A decisive victory for Democrats would mean the US dollar will weaken on the back of fiscal stimulus in the form income replacement, health care and the Green Agenda, Mr Hardy said.
A Biden administration will also dampen risk appetites, and the market will demand a higher return on higher risk and higher growth stocks with cash flows so far off in the future, he said.
Big Tech would come under pressure as Democrats are looking to break up monopolistic behaviour.
A ‘blue wave’ scenario “helps to prevent any sort of Trump obstructionism or accusations of voter fraud”, he added, even if the results are not immediately clear in Pennsylvania.
If Mr Trump ekes out victory, the US dollar would likely spike strongly higher by a couple of per cent, mostly as an unwinding of the 'blue wave' scenario that is already partly priced into market expectations before the election, Mr Hardy predicted.
Markets are bracing for Tuesday’s results after global equities had their worst week since March when election uncertainty and a worsening Covid-19 crisis came to a boil in trading.
The market drop means it is forecasting - by a tiny margin - that Mr Biden will win, according to CFRA Research's Presidential Predictor.
The stock market is a reliable predictor: when the S&P 500 fell in the three months leading up to the November vote during a presidential election year, the incumbent president or party of the outgoing president has lost the election 88 per cent of the time since World War II. When the index gains during that period, the incumbent or party of the outgoing president has won 82 per cent of the time.
The stock market was betting on a Mr Trump victory up until Friday, when the S&P 500 fell 1.2 per cent - sending stocks negative over the past three months, and the advantage shifting to Mr Biden.
Mr Hardy agrees with Wall Street, predicting that the Democrats “will eke out a solid or better Blue Wave result in this election”.
In this episode
- 1:16 How are the markets affected in the run-up to the election?
- 4:39 Biden win and a 'blue wave' scenario
- 7:54 Where does coronavirus fit in?
- 9:35 The power of Pennsylvania
- 12:03 The possibility of a contested election
- 14:06 The three scenarios
- 17:10 Markets don't like uncertainty
- 20:10 Headlines
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Traits of Chinese zodiac animals
Tiger:independent, successful, volatile
Rat:witty, creative, charming
Ox:diligent, perseverent, conservative
Rabbit:gracious, considerate, sensitive
Dragon:prosperous, brave, rash
Snake:calm, thoughtful, stubborn
Horse:faithful, energetic, carefree
Sheep:easy-going, peacemaker, curious
Monkey:family-orientated, clever, playful
Rooster:honest, confident, pompous
Dog:loyal, kind, perfectionist
Boar:loving, tolerant, indulgent
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Essentials
The flights
Return flights from Dubai to Windhoek, with a combination of Emirates and Air Namibia, cost from US$790 (Dh2,902) via Johannesburg.
The trip
A 10-day self-drive in Namibia staying at a combination of the safari camps mentioned – Okonjima AfriCat, Little Kulala, Desert Rhino/Damaraland, Ongava – costs from $7,000 (Dh25,711) per person, including car hire (Toyota 4x4 or similar), but excluding international flights, with The Luxury Safari Company.
When to go
The cooler winter months, from June to September, are best, especially for game viewing.
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Fight card
- Aliu Bamidele Lasisi (Nigeria) beat Artid Vamrungauea (Thailand) POINTS
- Julaidah Abdulfatah (Saudi Arabia) beat Martin Kabrhel (Czech Rep) POINTS
- Kem Ljungquist (Denmark) beat Mourad Omar (Egypt) TKO
- Michael Lawal (UK) beat Tamas Kozma (Hungary) KO
- Zuhayr Al Qahtani (Saudi Arabia) beat Mohammed Mahmoud (UK) POINTS
- Darren Surtees (UK) beat Kane Baker (UK) KO
- Chris Eubank Jr (UK) beat JJ McDonagh (Ireland) TKO
- Callum Smith (UK) beat George Groves (UK) KO
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Honeymoonish
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Elie%20El%20Samaan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENour%20Al%20Ghandour%2C%20Mahmoud%20Boushahri%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Results
4pm: Al Bastakiya Listed US$300,000 (Dirt) 1,900m; Winner: Emblem Storm, Oisin Murphy (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
4.35pm: Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 $350,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Wafy, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
5.10pm: Nad Al Sheba Turf Group 3 $350,000 (Turf) 1,200m; Winner: Wildman Jack, Fernando Jara, Doug O’Neill.
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar Group 3 $350,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Salute The Soldier, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass.
6.20pm: Jebel Hatta Group 1 $400,000 (T) 1,800m; Winner: Barney Roy, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 $600,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Matterhorn, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer.
7.30pm: Dubai City Of Gold Group 2 $350,000 (T) 2,410m; Winner: Loxley, Mickael Barzalona, Charlie Appleby.
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
Brief scores:
Manchester City 2
Gundogan 27', De Bruyne 85'
Crystal Palace 3
Schlupp 33', Townsend 35', Milivojevic 51' (pen)
Man of the Match: Andros Townsend (Crystal Palace)
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
