Uncertainty in Pennsylvania is a potential “perfect storm” for a contested election that would send market shockwaves, but investors are otherwise expecting a Joe Biden win.
"The market is a bit pre-positioned for the Democratic wave, unlike last time," John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank, said, adding that markets were in no way prepared for President Trump's victory in 2016.
He joins co-hosts Mustafa Alrawi and Kelsey Warner this week to discuss those lessons learned and outline market scenarios depending on the election's outcome.
A contested election, or one where Mr Biden wins the presidency but Democrats fail to take the Senate, would be a "train wreck", according to Mr Hardy, who has been writing about the lead-up to the election.
It would mean the risk of a “scorched earth” campaign by an obstructionist Republican Senate, which had a history under Obama in particular of blocking everything at all times.
A decisive victory for Democrats would mean the US dollar will weaken on the back of fiscal stimulus in the form income replacement, health care and the Green Agenda, Mr Hardy said.
A Biden administration will also dampen risk appetites, and the market will demand a higher return on higher risk and higher growth stocks with cash flows so far off in the future, he said.
Big Tech would come under pressure as Democrats are looking to break up monopolistic behaviour.
A ‘blue wave’ scenario “helps to prevent any sort of Trump obstructionism or accusations of voter fraud”, he added, even if the results are not immediately clear in Pennsylvania.
If Mr Trump ekes out victory, the US dollar would likely spike strongly higher by a couple of per cent, mostly as an unwinding of the 'blue wave' scenario that is already partly priced into market expectations before the election, Mr Hardy predicted.
Markets are bracing for Tuesday’s results after global equities had their worst week since March when election uncertainty and a worsening Covid-19 crisis came to a boil in trading.
The market drop means it is forecasting - by a tiny margin - that Mr Biden will win, according to CFRA Research's Presidential Predictor.
The stock market is a reliable predictor: when the S&P 500 fell in the three months leading up to the November vote during a presidential election year, the incumbent president or party of the outgoing president has lost the election 88 per cent of the time since World War II. When the index gains during that period, the incumbent or party of the outgoing president has won 82 per cent of the time.
The stock market was betting on a Mr Trump victory up until Friday, when the S&P 500 fell 1.2 per cent - sending stocks negative over the past three months, and the advantage shifting to Mr Biden.
Mr Hardy agrees with Wall Street, predicting that the Democrats “will eke out a solid or better Blue Wave result in this election”.
In this episode
- 1:16 How are the markets affected in the run-up to the election?
- 4:39 Biden win and a 'blue wave' scenario
- 7:54 Where does coronavirus fit in?
- 9:35 The power of Pennsylvania
- 12:03 The possibility of a contested election
- 14:06 The three scenarios
- 17:10 Markets don't like uncertainty
- 20:10 Headlines
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%20train%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%20and%20synchronous%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20power%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E800hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20torque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E950Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEight-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E25.7kWh%20lithium-ion%3Cbr%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%203.4sec%3Cbr%3E0-200km%2Fh%3A%2011.4sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E312km%2Fh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20electric-only%20range%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2060km%20(claimed)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Q3%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1.2m%20(estimate)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ASHES FIXTURES
1st Test: Brisbane, Nov 23-27
2nd Test: Adelaide, Dec 2-6
3rd Test: Perth, Dec 14-18
4th Test: Melbourne, Dec 26-30
5th Test: Sydney, Jan 4-8
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
RESULT
Manchester United 1 Brighton and Hove Albion 0
Man United: Dunk (66' og)
Man of the Match: Shane Duffy (Brighton)
Profile
Company: Justmop.com
Date started: December 2015
Founders: Kerem Kuyucu and Cagatay Ozcan
Sector: Technology and home services
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai
Size: 55 employees and 100,000 cleaning requests a month
Funding: The company’s investors include Collective Spark, Faith Capital Holding, Oak Capital, VentureFriends, and 500 Startups.
The specs: 2018 Mazda CX-5
Price, base / as tested: Dh89,000 / Dh130,000
Engine: 2.5-litre four-cylinder
Power: 188hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 251Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.1L / 100km
A Long Way Home by Peter Carey
Faber & Faber
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre flat-six twin-turbocharged
Transmission: eight-speed PDK automatic
Power: 445bhp
Torque: 530Nm
Price: Dh474,600
On Sale: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETwin-turbo%2C%20V8%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20automatic%20and%20manual%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E503%20bhp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E513Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh646%2C800%20(%24176%2C095)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EHigh%20fever%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EIntense%20pain%20behind%20your%20eyes%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ESevere%20headache%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ENausea%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EVomiting%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ESwollen%20glands%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ERash%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIf%20symptoms%20occur%2C%20they%20usually%20last%20for%20two-seven%20days%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Brutalist
Director: Brady Corbet
Stars: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn
Rating: 3.5/5
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20WallyGPT%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2014%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESaeid%20and%20Sami%20Hejazi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20raised%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%247.1%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2020%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%20round%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Profile of Tarabut Gateway
Founder: Abdulla Almoayed
Based: UAE
Founded: 2017
Number of employees: 35
Sector: FinTech
Raised: $13 million
Backers: Berlin-based venture capital company Target Global, Kingsway, CE Ventures, Entrée Capital, Zamil Investment Group, Global Ventures, Almoayed Technologies and Mad’a Investment.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
AIDA%20RETURNS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECarol%20Mansour%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAida%20Abboud%2C%20Carol%20Mansour%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5.%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2019 Chevrolet Bolt EV
Price, base: Dh138,000 (estimate)
Engine: 60kWh battery
Transmission: Single-speed Electronic Precision Shift
Power: 204hp
Torque: 360Nm
Range: 520km (claimed)
MATCH DETAILS
Barcelona 0
Slavia Prague 0
Ain Dubai in numbers
126: The length in metres of the legs supporting the structure
1 football pitch: The length of each permanent spoke is longer than a professional soccer pitch
16 A380 Airbuses: The equivalent weight of the wheel rim.
9,000 tonnes: The amount of steel used to construct the project.
5 tonnes: The weight of each permanent spoke that is holding the wheel rim in place
192: The amount of cable wires used to create the wheel. They measure a distance of 2,4000km in total, the equivalent of the distance between Dubai and Cairo.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
Essentials
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct from the UAE to Geneva from Dh2,845 return, including taxes. The flight takes 6 hours.
The package
Clinique La Prairie offers a variety of programmes. A six-night Master Detox costs from 14,900 Swiss francs (Dh57,655), including all food, accommodation and a set schedule of medical consultations and spa treatments.
Herc's Adventures
Developer: Big Ape Productions
Publisher: LucasArts
Console: PlayStation 1 & 5, Sega Saturn
Rating: 4/5
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
