After 240 years, American democracy is facing a serious challenge. If Donald Trump, the most unconventional candidate for president in modern times, wins the November election, democracy may be in danger because of his oft-illiberal and authoritarian prescriptions. If he loses, there is a risk the world’s most advanced democracy will face the sort of post-electoral acrimoniousness associated with failed or failing states and banana republics.
This is because Mr Trump has said he is worried that the election will be rigged against him. His campaign manager has suggested that the justice department is not to be trusted. And a long-time associate has spoken darkly of an election defeat triggering “a constitutional crisis, widespread civil disobedience … a bloodbath”.
The American political class has expressed stupefaction. Prominent supporters of Mr Trump's own party have challenged the notion of a rigged election. Charles Fried, a Harvard law professor and Ronald Reagan's former solicitor general, lambasted the "invitation to violence and civic disruption". American journalists have dared their tribe to do the "patriotic" thing and expose fears of electoral fraud as fantasy. Magical realism is being employed in serious political magazines such as Foreign Policy to visualise an America in uproar about a "stolen" election, with Mr Trump refusing to accept the result and encouraging people to take to the streets.
There is anxiety that this electoral season’s low politicking will delegitimize the democratic process by which America sets such store, even presuming to export it to distant parts of the world. There is the embarrassing possibility that the United States, which routinely counsels other countries on the need for a fair and non-violent election process, may wind up needing intervention itself. For the first time in modern American history, there are concerns about the peaceful transfer of power.
It figures. No major party presidential candidate has ever cast doubt on the American democratic system as a whole. The 2000 election, in which Democratic Party candidate Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college to George W Bush, was probably the worst-case scenario. But even after that contentious chapter, Mr Gore did not suggest that Mr Bush was an illegitimate president. Instead, he invoked the stirring words of senator Stephen Douglas on being defeated by Abraham Lincoln in 1860, and declared that “partisan feeling must yield to patriotism … this is America, and we put country before party. We will stand together behind our new president.”
This has pretty much been the way US politicians of every stripe have dealt with their country’s quadrennial trysts with democracy. But, how fair are American elections really?
The need for election reform has long been discussed but this has mostly focused on matters of policy and procedure – the weight given to the electoral college, the role of private money in politics and the need to move away from a two-party system.
It’s hard to stand up claims that US elections are rigged. As president Barack Obama pointed out in response to Mr Trump, the federal government does not organise the vote. That is the task of local election boards. Both major parties are able to send monitors to any and every precinct. Officials audit precincts at random before they certify the election. At present, the chief election officers in states representing 287 electoral votes – 270 are needed to win the White House – belong to Mr Trump’s Republican Party. This will make it difficult for him to scapegoat the system should he lose.
In fact, as Ari Berman, author of Give Us the Ballot: The Modern Struggle for Voting Rights in America, says, there have been only 31 credible incidents of voter impersonation out of one billion votes cast in the US since 2000. There are more deaths by lightning – 30 or so – each year. Vote-buying and ballot-manipulation are also rare and generally quickly identified and punished.
Finally, American elections have been routinely observed by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) since 2004. The organisation, which has traditionally focused on monitoring polls in emerging democracies, agreed to president George W Bush’s invitation after a petition from 13 Democratic Party senators.
The OSCE’s verdict on the 2012 US presidential election was cheery. Commending the “vibrant” campaigns, media coverage and “broad public confidence”, it recorded satisfaction that the polls “took place in a competitive environment and were administered in a professional manner”. The only fault it found was in the over-politicisation of “decisions on technical aspects of the electoral process”. It also suggested further steps “to improve the electoral process” in areas such as voting rights, accurate voter lists, campaign finance transparency and recount procedures. These are flaws but hardly a sign of massive electoral dysfunction and fraud.
In suggesting that the bedrock of American government is crumbling and rotten, Mr Trump may be toying with something he doesn’t recognise as an improvised explosive device. Until now, his penchant for the word “rigged” – also applying it to the economy and media coverage – has generally reflected his own sense of ill-usage and whatever gripe he thinks might be popular with voters at the time. Now, he is casually positioning a bomb that could blow up the entire structure.
It is an Olympian task to restore legitimacy to a system once it has been challenged. It was well said that leadership is not about the next election, it's about the next generation.
Rashmee Roshan Lall is a writer on world affairs
On Twitter: @rashmeerl
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Power: 110 horsepower
Torque: 147Nm
Price: From Dh59,700
On sale: now
Company profile
Name: Steppi
Founders: Joe Franklin and Milos Savic
Launched: February 2020
Size: 10,000 users by the end of July and a goal of 200,000 users by the end of the year
Employees: Five
Based: Jumeirah Lakes Towers, Dubai
Financing stage: Two seed rounds – the first sourced from angel investors and the founders' personal savings
Second round raised Dh720,000 from silent investors in June this year
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Pathaan
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What is Folia?
Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed bin Talal's new plant-based menu will launch at Four Seasons hotels in Dubai this November. A desire to cater to people looking for clean, healthy meals beyond green salad is what inspired Prince Khaled and American celebrity chef Matthew Kenney to create Folia. The word means "from the leaves" in Latin, and the exclusive menu offers fine plant-based cuisine across Four Seasons properties in Los Angeles, Bahrain and, soon, Dubai.
Kenney specialises in vegan cuisine and is the founder of Plant Food Wine and 20 other restaurants worldwide. "I’ve always appreciated Matthew’s work," says the Saudi royal. "He has a singular culinary talent and his approach to plant-based dining is prescient and unrivalled. I was a fan of his long before we established our professional relationship."
Folia first launched at The Four Seasons Hotel Los Angeles at Beverly Hills in July 2018. It is available at the poolside Cabana Restaurant and for in-room dining across the property, as well as in its private event space. The food is vibrant and colourful, full of fresh dishes such as the hearts of palm ceviche with California fruit, vegetables and edible flowers; green hearb tacos filled with roasted squash and king oyster barbacoa; and a savoury coconut cream pie with macadamia crust.
In March 2019, the Folia menu reached Gulf shores, as it was introduced at the Four Seasons Hotel Bahrain Bay, where it is served at the Bay View Lounge. Next, on Tuesday, November 1 – also known as World Vegan Day – it will come to the UAE, to the Four Seasons Resort Dubai at Jumeirah Beach and the Four Seasons DIFC, both properties Prince Khaled has spent "considerable time at and love".
There are also plans to take Folia to several more locations throughout the Middle East and Europe.
While health-conscious diners will be attracted to the concept, Prince Khaled is careful to stress Folia is "not meant for a specific subset of customers. It is meant for everyone who wants a culinary experience without the negative impact that eating out so often comes with."
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Defending champions
World Series: South Africa
Women’s World Series: Australia
Gulf Men’s League: Dubai Exiles
Gulf Men’s Social: Mediclinic Barrelhouse Warriors
Gulf Vets: Jebel Ali Dragons Veterans
Gulf Women: Dubai Sports City Eagles
Gulf Under 19: British School Al Khubairat
Gulf Under 19 Girls: Dubai Exiles
UAE National Schools: Al Safa School
International Invitational: Speranza 22
International Vets: Joining Jack
Mina Cup winners
Under 12 – Minerva Academy
Under 14 – Unam Pumas
Under 16 – Fursan Hispania
Under 18 – Madenat
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
How to donate
Text the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
6025 - Dh 20
2252 - Dh 50
2208 - Dh 100
6020 - Dh 200
*numbers work for both Etisalat and du
More on Quran memorisation:
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Fixture and table
UAE finals day: Friday, April 13 at Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
- 3pm, UAE Conference: Dubai Tigers v Sharjah Wanderers
- 6.30pm, UAE Premiership: Dubai Exiles v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Premiership – final standings
- Dubai Exiles
- Abu Dhabi Harlequins
- Jebel Ali Dragons
- Dubai Hurricanes
- Dubai Sports City Eagles
- Abu Dhabi Saracens
The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont
Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950
Engine 3.6-litre V6
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km
