In a year full of calamities, there is one that has failed to happen: Europe's summer migration crisis. Indeed, as the northern summer has gone on, the number of people trying to cross the Mediterranean from North Africa by boat has fallen dramatically.
The latest statistics from the United Nations refugee agency show that the expected crisis was looming in June, with 23,500 migrants crossing to Italy. The next month, it dropped to 11,400 and by August, to just 3,900. And August is usually the busiest time of the year, before the weather turns.
It seems like someone had waved a magic wand. The Washington Post earlier this month headlined an article, "The mysterious drop in the number of migrants crossing the Mediterranean".
There is no mystery now, but there are some key aspects that no European government wants to talk about. Human rights organisations, by contrast, have a lot to say. And those who worry about the long-delayed pacification of Libya – the embarkation point for most migrants headed for Italy – also have concerns.
The timing of the stemming of the flow of destitute people seeking a better life in Europe is not coincidental. The migrant problem has dropped off the TV screens ahead of the German election on Sunday, when chancellor Angela Markel is running for a fourth term. As for Italy, the weak centre-left government is facing an election early next year amid fears that continued unrestricted immigration would sweep the far right into power in Rome.
Two years ago, the usually cautious Mrs Merkel opened Germany's borders to refugees from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan traipsing through the Balkans in search of shelter and safety. "We can do this," she said, becoming Europe's paragon of generosity and internationalism.
When the enormity of the problem of turning 900,000 aliens into German citizens became clear, she switched tack, concluding in March 2015 a "dirty deal" with Turkey to cut the flow of migrants into Greece, while the frontiers throughout the Balkans became a patchwork of barbed wire.
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Read more
EU refugee court ruling triggers new east-west feuding
Migration tensions seep into German election campaign
'Are we really the problem?' ask aid groups saving migrants
EU’s Mediterranean migrant dilemma: Are aid groups providing a ferry service for human smugglers?
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As the focus this year has moved to the Libya-Italy route, the roads into Austria and France were heavily policed to stop migrants moving north into the European heartland. Italy – the former colonial power in Libya that has been left almost alone coping with the problem – was given the go-ahead to do what it could on the other side of the Mediterranean.
There are two main elements to the plan: states, such as Niger on Libya’s southern border, are being helped to beef up security to prevent migrants moving north. This is a huge task – the tribes who live in the desert areas have few sources of revenue or jobs beyond smuggling people and contraband. And they will always have more money and faster vehicles than the border guards.
The long-term the plan is to check the identities of would-be asylum seekers in Africa, before they set foot on European soil, a task that European countries cannot achieve even at home.
The second element is on the coast. Italy has strengthened the coast guard operated by the fragile, UN-approved unity government in Tripoli headed by Fayez Al Serraj. The rescue vessels operated by well-meaning charities, towards which the smugglers would direct their overloaded boats of migrants, have been ordered away from the coast. This has led to a dramatic cut in the number of drownings, though that is not the primary purpose of the policy.
Murkier is what is happening on shore. A militia in the Libyan town of Sabratha, which used to control the people-smuggling trade, is now working with the unity government to prevent migrants from departing, locking them up in insanitary jails. Even young men who look like migrants are rounded up and detained.
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More on the migrant crisis
Libyan PM denies granting access to Italian ships
Leaders urge migrant screening in Africa to stem Med crossings
The flaws in Europe’s plan to tackle refugee trafficking from Libya
Aid groups halt rescue operations off Libyan coast
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Clearly, a lot of European money is going in a roundabout way to buy off thugs who would otherwise be profiting from people-smuggling. One can only guess at the calculations made by the Italian secret service to purchase their co-operation. Receipts are not required, since the European Union has been assured that there will never be evidence of money going to armed militias.
A northern European official was sniffy about these arrangements. “We know the Italians – always the first to pay a ransom.”
That is unfair. In an unequal world, a wealthy region with an unguarded border will always attract mass migration. And in this situation, the Italians have been left alone, the other 27 members of the EU shamelessly unwilling to take more than a handful of the migrants.
Even the European Union – supposedly a beacon of human rights observance - recognises that the migrants stranded in Libya suffer inhumane treatment.
So belatedly, Brussels has found an emergency remedy for Europe’s migration problem, which has calmed the German electorate and ensured Mrs Merkel a clear path to victory. Will this sticking plaster last until the Italian elections early next year?
What is certain is that such reactive policies are expensive in the short term and damaging in the long term. The militias can blackmail the unity government, even as they grow rich and powerful enough to challenge it. Who knows, they may end up smuggling more migrants to the coast just so they can lock them up and prove their worth as coast guards.
The corrosive effect will be felt far and wide. In Zuwara, 45 kilometers to the west of Subratha and formerly a major migration hub, local people took it upon themselves to drive the people smugglers out, apparently unbribed. Such civic initiatives of the type that Libya so desperately needs cannot survive when bundles of cash are handed out to be bandits.
Libya still suffers from two rival governments and a plethora of militias vying for primacy. While it meets some European concerns, the anti-migration policy does not restore Libya as a working state. On the contrary, it probably will make it harder for the unity government to succeed.
Alan Philps is a commentator on global affairs
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The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Essentials
The flights: You can fly from the UAE to Iceland with one stop in Europe with a variety of airlines. Return flights with Emirates from Dubai to Stockholm, then Icelandair to Reykjavik, cost from Dh4,153 return. The whole trip takes 11 hours. British Airways flies from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Reykjavik, via London, with return flights taking 12 hours and costing from Dh2,490 return, including taxes.
The activities: A half-day Silfra snorkelling trip costs 14,990 Icelandic kronur (Dh544) with Dive.is. Inside the Volcano also takes half a day and costs 42,000 kronur (Dh1,524). The Jokulsarlon small-boat cruise lasts about an hour and costs 9,800 kronur (Dh356). Into the Glacier costs 19,500 kronur (Dh708). It lasts three to four hours.
The tours: It’s often better to book a tailor-made trip through a specialist operator. UK-based Discover the World offers seven nights, self-driving, across the island from £892 (Dh4,505) per person. This includes three nights’ accommodation at Hotel Husafell near Into the Glacier, two nights at Hotel Ranga and two nights at the Icelandair Hotel Klaustur. It includes car rental, plus an iPad with itinerary and tourist information pre-loaded onto it, while activities can be booked as optional extras. More information inspiredbyiceland.com
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Tuesday's fixtures
Kyrgyzstan v Qatar, 5.45pm
RedCrow Intelligence Company Profile
Started: 2016
Founders: Hussein Nasser Eddin, Laila Akel, Tayeb Akel
Based: Ramallah, Palestine
Sector: Technology, Security
# of staff: 13
Investment: $745,000
Investors: Palestine’s Ibtikar Fund, Abu Dhabi’s Gothams and angel investors
Traits of Chinese zodiac animals
Tiger:independent, successful, volatile
Rat:witty, creative, charming
Ox:diligent, perseverent, conservative
Rabbit:gracious, considerate, sensitive
Dragon:prosperous, brave, rash
Snake:calm, thoughtful, stubborn
Horse:faithful, energetic, carefree
Sheep:easy-going, peacemaker, curious
Monkey:family-orientated, clever, playful
Rooster:honest, confident, pompous
Dog:loyal, kind, perfectionist
Boar:loving, tolerant, indulgent
Five films to watch
Castle in the Sky (1986)
Grave of the Fireflies (1988)
Only Yesterday (1991)
Pom Poki (1994)
The Tale of Princess Kaguya (2013)
Results
2pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 40,000 (Dirt) 1,200m, Winner: AF Thayer, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
2.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,200m, Winner: AF Sahwa, Nathan Crosse, Mohamed Ramadan.
3pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,000m, Winner: AF Thobor, Szczepan Mazur, Ernst Oertel.
3.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 2,000m, Winner: AF Mezmar, Szczepan Mazur, Ernst Oertel.
4pm: Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Al Maktoum Cup presented by Longines (TB) Dh 200,000 (D) 1,700m, Winner: Galvanize, Nathan Cross, Doug Watson.
4.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,700m, Winner: Ajaj, Bernardo Pinheiro, Mohamed Daggash.
THE BIO
Family: I have three siblings, one older brother (age 25) and two younger sisters, 20 and 13
Favourite book: Asking for my favourite book has to be one of the hardest questions. However a current favourite would be Sidewalk by Mitchell Duneier
Favourite place to travel to: Any walkable city. I also love nature and wildlife
What do you love eating or cooking: I’m constantly in the kitchen. Ever since I changed the way I eat I enjoy choosing and creating what goes into my body. However, nothing can top home cooked food from my parents.
Favorite place to go in the UAE: A quiet beach.
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
