Pyongyang is a long way from Tehran. The crisis created by the rapid advancements in North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities and ratcheted up by the American president's bellicose response to them seems remote from the issues of the Middle East. But it would be a mistake to think what is happening in and around the Korean peninsula has no bearing on the future of efforts to rein in Iran's nuclear programme.
Donald Trump, the US president, has already indicated that it is his belief that Iran is not complying with the spirit of the nuclear accord that became one of the signature accomplishments of the presidency of his predecessor, Barack Obama. Mr Trump has also said he would have liked to decertify Iran for non-compliance with the terms of the programme earlier this year and that he intends to do so soon. So, we know we have a crisis brewing that will not only pit the US against Iran but seems likely to trigger tensions between the US and other P5 members that were party to the Iran agreement. They don't share Mr Trump's view and they seem unlikely to go along with his confrontational approach.
The pressure of going against the wishes of his partners in the deal might be seen as a potential deterrent to Mr Trump - if not because he is responsive to outside pressure then because US sanctions are unlikely to have much effect if the rest of the world is not going along with them. Further, his being an outlier internationally might trigger political pressure on Mr Trump at home to moderate his views.
But, North Korea has had the effect of reawakening America to the palpable threat of nuclear war. At no time since the Cuban Missile Crisis has US media focused so much on the possibility of a nuclear strike against America by a rogue state. In the US territory of Guam, homeland security officials have issued instructions about what to do in the event of an attack, including tips like not looking directly at the nuclear fireball. These warnings have been broadcast by CNN to the US mainland. The result is not just a heightened level of anxiety but a much greater public awareness of the dangers of nuclear proliferation.
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More from David Rothkopf
The old power relationships are fading. Welcome to the new world
China has opened a base in Djibouti. The geopolitics of the Middle East will never be the same again
What is happening with Donald Trump is not normal. It is also not sustainable
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For better or for worse, this will work to Mr Trump's advantage when he seeks to undo the Iran deal and apply more pressure on Tehran. He may be doing it out of a reflexive desire to erase Mr Obama's legacies. But, ironically, in part because of Mr Trump's intemperate reaction to the actions of Kim Jong-un, the US people are in the midst of a crash course in what happens if a hostile regime gains the ultimate destructive power of atomic weapons. They are now thinking as they have not in the past about the special challenges posed by states that may not be rational actors and may not be susceptible to the power of deterrence. There is renewed discussion of the dangers of nuclear states that might allow weapons of mass destruction to fall into the hands of terrorists.
While these concerns pertain to North Korea, they also certainly apply to Iran. And for this reason, it is likely Mr Trump will have more support for undoing the nuclear deal or at least adding new pressure on Iran. His opponents will argue, with some merit, that the North Korea experience actually underscores the benefits of having a deal such as that struck with Iran. But in the end, the president has considerable latitude to act here and in the wake of recent events, Republican leaders on Capitol Hill are unlikely to want to show weakness by going against his views.
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More from Opinion on Iran
Hassan Rouhani is no moderate
Iran is closely watching the US-North Korea stand-off
Assad and his Iranian masters
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Matters are made more complex by the gathering storm of scandal swirling around the White House. Mr Trump has seen that his controversial sabre-rattling regarding North Korea has what he sees as the welcome effect of distracting attention from the investigations into his team's Russia ties and their involvement in Russian efforts to tip the scales in the last US election. This past weekend he even took it a step further with a comment that America was weighing military options in Venezuela (a country in chaos but one in which there is absolutely no sensible reason for US military intervention).
Mr Trump appears to think confrontation and tough talk make him appear strong. They also appeal to some in his base who felt Barack Obama was weak. And such a stance shifts headlines in a direction with which he is more comfortable. Combine that with the number of Iran hawks surrounding him and their collective discomfort with the sense that US policy in Syria and Iraq have strengthened Iran, and the likelihood that this autumn will see a major ratcheting up of US-Iran tensions has grown greatly in the past few days.
David Rothkopf is CEO of The Rothkopf Group, a columnist for the Washington Post, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and most recently author of The Great Questions of Tomorrow
'Morbius'
Director: Daniel Espinosa
Stars: Jared Leto, Matt Smith, Adria Arjona
Rating: 2/5
Suggested picnic spots
Abu Dhabi
Umm Al Emarat Park
Yas Gateway Park
Delma Park
Al Bateen beach
Saadiyaat beach
The Corniche
Zayed Sports City
Dubai
Kite Beach
Zabeel Park
Al Nahda Pond Park
Mushrif Park
Safa Park
Al Mamzar Beach Park
Al Qudrah Lakes
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
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Banned items
Dubai Police has also issued a list of banned items at the ground on Sunday. These include:
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Political flags or banners
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Bikes, skateboards or scooters
The team
Photographer: Mateusz Stefanowski at Art Factory
Videographer: Jear Valasquez
Fashion director: Sarah Maisey
Make-up: Gulum Erzincan at Art Factory
Model: Randa at Art Factory Videographer’s assistant: Zanong Magat
Photographer’s assistant: Sophia Shlykova
With thanks to Jubail Mangrove Park, Jubail Island, Abu Dhabi
Company profile
Company: Eighty6
Date started: October 2021
Founders: Abdul Kader Saadi and Anwar Nusseibeh
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Hospitality
Size: 25 employees
Funding stage: Pre-series A
Investment: $1 million
Investors: Seed funding, angel investors
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Company Profile
Founder: Omar Onsi
Launched: 2018
Employees: 35
Financing stage: Seed round ($12 million)
Investors: B&Y, Phoenician Funds, M1 Group, Shorooq Partners
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Education reform in Abu Dhabi
The emirate’s public education system has been in a constant state of change since the New School Model was launched in 2010 by the Abu Dhabi Education Council. The NSM, which is also known as the Abu Dhabi School Model, transformed the public school curriculum by introducing bilingual education starting with students from grades one to five. Under this new curriculum, the children spend half the day learning in Arabic and half in English – being taught maths, science and English language by mostly Western educated, native English speakers. The NSM curriculum also moved away from rote learning and required teachers to develop a “child-centered learning environment” that promoted critical thinking and independent learning. The NSM expanded by one grade each year and by the 2017-2018 academic year, it will have reached the high school level. Major reforms to the high school curriculum were announced in 2015. The two-stream curriculum, which allowed pupils to elect to follow a science or humanities course of study, was eliminated. In its place was a singular curriculum in which stem -- science, technology, engineering and maths – accounted for at least 50 per cent of all subjects. In 2016, Adec announced additional changes, including the introduction of two levels of maths and physics – advanced or general – to pupils in Grade 10, and a new core subject, career guidance, for grades 10 to 12; and a digital technology and innovation course for Grade 9. Next year, the focus will be on launching a new moral education subject to teach pupils from grades 1 to 9 character and morality, civic studies, cultural studies and the individual and the community.
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Director: Jon Watts
Stars: Tom Holland, Zendaya, Jacob Batalon
Rating:*****
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
Emergency phone numbers in the UAE
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
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