Vladimir Putin has much experience dealing with insurgencies in Russia. But he has only a limited range of techniques (EPA / Turkish Presidential Press Office)
Vladimir Putin has much experience dealing with insurgencies in Russia. But he has only a limited range of techniques (EPA / Turkish Presidential Press Office)

Why Putin’s iron-fist policy will not work in Turkey



Another terror attack has devastated Turkey. Although it is not yet clear who carried out the attack, ISIL has claimed responsibility and the footage of the gunman entering the nightclub certainly suggests he had some military training.

Turkey has paid a significant and continuing price for its involvement in and geographical proximity to the Syrian civil war. No country can accept regular attacks as a “new normal”, but Turkey, with its history of attacks by Kurdish separatists, is particularly unwilling to contemplate such a fate.

In the coming weeks, the Turkish president will look for ways to end this ISIL menace – and he will find, in Vladimir Putin, a willing mentor.

Russia and Turkish relations are getting warmer. Together, they have brokered a ceasefire for Syria that accepts Bashar Al Assad’s position as head of state. But their growing closeness is also hinged on something else.

Often overlooked, there is one region that is pulling Turkey, Russia and Iran together. Not Syria, but the northern Caucasus. The southern regional states of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia border all three countries, but the north is part of Russian territory – and home to restive provinces that have violently resisted Moscow’s rule.

This volatile region is wedged between the three countries and it is what happens in that region that has focused the mind of Moscow on the Syrian civil war.

Too often western politicians and media have assumed that Russia is conducting its politics with an eye on rivalling Nato. In fact, in this case, Syria’s civil war and the rise of ISIL is practically a domestic matter.

There are thousands of Chechens fighting with ISIL – perhaps as many as 4,000 – and by all accounts they are formidable fighters. Abu Omar Al Shishani, who served as “minister for war” and was one of ISIL’s highest-ranking fighters until his death last summer, was, as his nom de guerre suggests, a Chechen. Indeed, he once explicitly threatened to return to Russia and exact “revenge”.

Mr Putin knows, therefore, that the stability of Russia is intimately tied to the stability of Syria. ISIL fighters have their eyes on the Caucasus. From a political perspective, having one of your enemies fighting a war against another enemy is a policy challenge. Interfere, and you risk provoking the fighters against you. Leave them to fight it out and they may emerge victorious and come after you. Mr Putin appears to have chosen the former option, for very personal reasons.

Russia’s battles with separatist states throughout the Caucasus region has been long. But for Mr Putin, these insurgencies have defined his career. As prime minister and then as president, Mr Putin oversaw the second Chechen war, a series of brutal, scorched-earth battles that eventually pacified the region. More than any other policy of his first term in office, these battles endeared him to large parts of the electorate as a man who could maintain law and order.

When Turkey searches for an answer to the increased attacks against it, it will find Mr Putin has long experience in putting down an insurgency in a complicated region. But his techniques are more limited: confined mainly to an iron fist. How well that will work in such an interconnected region is yet to be seen.

Because Turkey too has fought a long-running insurgency, this time against the Kurds. But unlike Mr Putin, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s approach to it was more carrot-and-stick – a technique that appeared to finally bear fruit in 2013, when the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) announced the end of its armed struggle. Talks broke down and it has since resumed its attacks against the Turkish state but there is little doubt it was the combination of incentives and military action that finally brought the PKK to the table.

Mr Putin offered no such carrot in Chechnya. And herein lies the problem. It is not that Turkey can offer ISIL any version of a deal – anyone who has tracked the militant group knows there can be no negotiation with them.

Rather it is that if a scorched-earth policy against ISIL works, Mr Erdogan may be tempted to employ the same approach to the Kurdish insurgency – and to other political challenges. But the two scenarios, though both parties have used terrorism, need to be dealt with in different ways. There is still something to talk to the Kurdish rebels about.

More broadly, the challenges Turkey faces cannot all be solved by scorched-earth politics. Mr Al Assad used this approach in Syria and, while it did result in him recapturing Aleppo, it has created many opponents to his rule, some very formidable. Mr Erdogan, already authoritarian minded, clearly finds the certainty of the iron fist compelling. But while a military-first approach to ISIL is the right response, in other political challenges it cannot be the only approach. At times of enormous political stress, Turkey must choose carefully whose advice it heeds.

falyafai@thenational.ae

On Twitter: @FaisalAlYafai

Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut

Ziina users will be able to use the app to help relief efforts in Beirut, which has been left reeling after an August blast caused an estimated $15 billion in damage and left thousands homeless. Ziina has partnered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to raise money for the Lebanese capital, co-founder Faisal Toukan says. “As of October 1, the UNHCR has the first certified badge on Ziina and is automatically part of user's top friends' list during this campaign. Users can now donate any amount to the Beirut relief with two clicks. The money raised will go towards rebuilding houses for the families that were impacted by the explosion.”

The rules on fostering in the UAE

A foster couple or family must:

  • be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
  • not be younger than 25 years old
  • not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
  • be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
  • have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
  • undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
  • A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Real estate tokenisation project

Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

The specs: 2018 Harley-Davidson Fat Boy

Price, base / as tested Dh97,600
Engine 1,745cc Milwaukee-Eight v-twin engine
Transmission Six-speed gearbox
Power 78hp @ 5,250rpm
Torque 145Nm @ 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 5.0L / 100km (estimate)

UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Power: 510hp at 9,000rpm
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Price: From Dh801,800
Crime%20Wave
%3Cp%3EHeavyweight%20boxer%20Fury%20revealed%20on%20Sunday%20his%20cousin%20had%20been%20%E2%80%9Cstabbed%20in%20the%20neck%E2%80%9D%20and%20called%20on%20the%20courts%20to%20address%20the%20wave%20of%20more%20sentencing%20of%20offenders.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERico%20Burton%2C%2031%2C%20was%20found%20with%20stab%20wounds%20at%20around%203am%20on%20Sunday%20in%20Goose%20Green%2C%20Altrincham%20and%20subsequently%20died%20of%20his%20injuries.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%26nbsp%3B%E2%80%9CMy%20cousin%20was%20murdered%20last%20night%2C%20stabbed%20in%20the%20neck%20this%20is%20becoming%20ridiculous%20%E2%80%A6%20idiots%20carry%20knives.%20This%20needs%20to%20stop%2C%E2%80%9D%0D%20Fury%20said.%20%E2%80%9CAsap%2C%20UK%20government%20needs%20to%20bring%20higher%20sentencing%20for%20knife%20crime%2C%20it%E2%80%99s%20a%20pandemic%20%26amp%3B%20you%20don%E2%80%99t%20know%20how%20bad%20it%20is%20until%20%5Bit%E2%80%99s%5D%201%20of%20your%20own!%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'Munich: The Edge of War'

Director: Christian Schwochow

Starring: George MacKay, Jannis Niewohner, Jeremy Irons

Rating: 3/5

The Sky Is Pink

Director: Shonali Bose

Cast: Priyanka Chopra Jonas, Farhan Akhtar, Zaira Wasim, Rohit Saraf

Three stars

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

Profile Box

Company/date started: 2015

Founder/CEO: Mohammed Toraif

Based: Manama, Bahrain

Sector: Sales, Technology, Conservation

Size: (employees/revenue) 4/ 5,000 downloads

Stage: 1 ($100,000)

Investors: Two first-round investors including, 500 Startups, Fawaz Al Gosaibi Holding (Saudi Arabia)

Bert van Marwijk factfile

Born: May 19 1952
Place of birth: Deventer, Netherlands
Playing position: Midfielder

Teams managed:
1998-2000 Fortuna Sittard
2000-2004 Feyenoord
2004-2006 Borussia Dortmund
2007-2008 Feyenoord
2008-2012 Netherlands
2013-2014 Hamburg
2015-2017 Saudi Arabia
2018 Australia

Major honours (manager):
2001/02 Uefa Cup, Feyenoord
2007/08 KNVB Cup, Feyenoord
World Cup runner-up, Netherlands

NO OTHER LAND

Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal

Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham

Rating: 3.5/5

The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.8-litre%204-cyl%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E190hp%20at%205%2C200rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20320Nm%20from%201%2C800-5%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeven-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.7L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh111%2C195%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Indika
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2011%20Bit%20Studios%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Odd%20Meter%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PlayStation%205%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20series%20X%2FS%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The currency conundrum

Russ Mould, investment director at online trading platform AJ Bell, says almost every major currency has challenges right now. “The US has a huge budget deficit, the euro faces political friction and poor growth, sterling is bogged down by Brexit, China’s renminbi is hit by debt fears while slowing Chinese growth is hurting commodity exporters like Australia and Canada.”

Most countries now actively want a weak currency to make their exports more competitive. “China seems happy to let the renminbi drift lower, the Swiss are still running quantitative easing at full tilt and central bankers everywhere are actively talking down their currencies or offering only limited support," says Mr Mould.

This is a race to the bottom, and everybody wants to be a winner.

Our legal consultants

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets