Amid the crazy quilt of billionaires, Republican insiders and retired generals who are populating president-elect Donald J Trump’s emerging cabinet, the Gulf states and other US Middle East allies are among the few outside of his core supporters with something real to cheer about already: his choice for secretary of defence, retired Gen James Mattis.
On domestic policy, many of Mr Trump’s choices thus far run the gamut from preposterous to alarming. However, the selection of Gen Mattis opens the prospect for a serious and purposeful US foreign policy in the Middle East in the next administration.
Gen Mattis, whose nickname is “Mad Dog”, developed a reputation at the Pentagon under Barack Obama of both exceptional competence and relative hawkishness towards traditional American adversaries such as Iran and, unlike Mr Trump, crucially, Russia.
Indeed, apparently Mr Obama’s administration cut short his tour at the head of US Central Command, the primary American military establishment for the Middle East, because his hardline views on Tehran’s incorrigible bad behaviour didn’t mix well with efforts to negotiate the nuclear agreement and a hoped-for, but unrealised and apparently unrealisable, broader rapprochement.
This, of course, will come as welcome news to the Gulf states, which have felt abandoned by Washington in recent years in the face of an ascendant Iran. The idea that one of the more combative, as well as competent, US generals will now be leading the Pentagon speaks to a desire to reverse the general course of US foreign policy under Mr Obama, globally, but especially in the Middle East.
The Obama approach has been, basically, to seek reconciliation with old enemies, build new bridges and present an open hand. He represents that trend in American foreign policy since the Second World War that has sought to reassure the international community of Washington’s good intentions and downplay any sense of Yankee imperialism.
Nobody knows what to expect from Mr Trump’s foreign policy, and until he nominates the secretary of state, a process that is taking both far too long and far too theatrical a turn, that will still be an open question. Even then, many specifics will remain unanswered.
However, with Gen Mattis at the Pentagon, it’s hard to imagine that Mr Trump’s nativism and so-called “America-first” approach won’t have a strong internationalist component to it. It’s by no means certain, but seems increasingly likely, that Mr Trump will represent that other great wing of American foreign policy, the assertive and aggressive Washington that frustrates allies when it is there but that they tend to miss badly when it is gone.
Gen Mattis is by no means a hawk in the manner of the George W Bush administration, or a neoconservative. But he is a believer in “peace through strength” and the aggressive forward deployment of American forces in areas such as the Middle East and the Gulf to deter potential adversaries from mischief.
This should greatly reassure the Gulf states. They are still coping with the fallout from the hubristic excesses of the Bush era, mainly the invasion of Iraq, but would generally like a stronger American presence in the region and more cooperation with Washington’s traditional allies.
This is precisely what Gen Mattis advocates, and to that end he resisted any military “pivot to Asia” during the Obama years and continues to advocate a strong US presence in the Middle East.
And much as he disliked the nuclear deal with Iran, Gen Mattis now takes the same view that the Gulf states do: that the United States should work with its allies in the international community to vigorously enforce the agreement rather than simply abrogating it, which would play directly into the hands of Iran’s hardliners.
Another important advantage of having Gen Mattis at the Pentagon is that he, perhaps alone, in the administration that has taken shape thus far, would be flatly and confidently able to tell Mr Trump precisely what military ideas are implausible or unworkable and which are worth pursuing. It’s hard to imagine his somewhat paranoid and fanciful proposed national security adviser, retired Gen Michael Flynn, playing the same role. Indeed, it’s much easier to imagine Gen Flynn simply endorsing any flight of fancy that Mr Trump may concoct. Gen Mattis is made of sterner stuff.
Nevertheless, having a recently retired general undermines the principle of civilian control of the military and Gen Mattis will require a congressional dispensation to serve. This should be a rare exception to an important rule.
George Marshall, the first American secretary of defence under Harry Truman, received such a dispensation from Congress. Every now and then one is necessary. If the United States, and certainly its Gulf allies, ever needed someone as hard-nosed and serious as Gen Mattis in the Pentagon, it’s definitely now.
Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
On Twitter: @ibishblog
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
'Nope'
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The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
From Europe to the Middle East, economic success brings wealth - and lifestyle diseases
A rise in obesity figures and the need for more public spending is a familiar trend in the developing world as western lifestyles are adopted.
One in five deaths around the world is now caused by bad diet, with obesity the fastest growing global risk. A high body mass index is also the top cause of metabolic diseases relating to death and disability in Kuwait, Qatar and Oman – and second on the list in Bahrain.
In Britain, heart disease, lung cancer and Alzheimer’s remain among the leading causes of death, and people there are spending more time suffering from health problems.
The UK is expected to spend $421.4 billion on healthcare by 2040, up from $239.3 billion in 2014.
And development assistance for health is talking about the financial aid given to governments to support social, environmental development of developing countries.
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%3Cp%3EThe%20Coffee%20Test%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3EA%20machine%20is%20required%20to%20enter%20an%20average%20American%20home%20and%20figure%20out%20how%20to%20make%20coffee%3A%20find%20the%20coffee%20machine%2C%20find%20the%20coffee%2C%20add%20water%2C%20find%20a%20mug%20and%20brew%20the%20coffee%20by%20pushing%20the%20proper%20buttons.%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EProposed%20by%20Steve%20Wozniak%2C%20Apple%20co-founder%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,200m
Winner: Ferdous, Szczepan Mazur (jockey), Ibrahim Al Hadhrami (trainer)
5.30pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round-3 Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 2,400m
Winner: Basmah, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6pm: UAE Arabian Derby Prestige (PA) Dh150,000 2,200m
Winner: Ihtesham, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6.30pm: Emirates Championship Group 1 (PA) Dh1,000,000 2,200m
Winner: Somoud, Patrick Cosgrave, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
7pm: Abu Dhabi Championship Group 3 (TB) Dh380,000 2,200m
Winner: GM Hopkins, Patrick Cosgrave, Jaber Ramadhan
7.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Conditions (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: AF Al Bairaq, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Brief scores:
Toss: Northern Warriors, elected to field first
Bengal Tigers 130-1 (10 ov)
Roy 60 not out, Rutherford 47 not out
Northern Warriors 94-7 (10 ov)
Simmons 44; Yamin 4-4
