In the debates that have been leading up to Scotland's independence referendum this month, the leaders of the pro and anti sides have repeatedly clashed. Alex Salmond, the Scottish first minister, and Alistair Darling, a former Labour cabinet minister, have both accused each other of getting their sums wrong over the revenue from North Sea oil, the consequences of continuing to share a single currency if Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, and whether or not pensions would suffer from separation.
The two are both economists. Mr Salmond held exactly that job title when he worked for the Royal Bank of Scotland before entering politics, while Mr Darling may not have formally have trained as one, but it would seem a little churlish not to bestow that description on a man who served as an opposition Treasury spokesman and then in government as chief secretary to the Treasury and ultimately chancellor of the exchequer.
When an economist says something, we are all supposed to sit up and listen. If “a leading economist” warns a reporter that an administration’s policies are likely to tip the country into recession, it will almost certainly make headline news.
We freight their statements with an almost unparalleled authority, yet there is a contradiction about our doing so. How is it, if they are such fonts of wisdom, that they can disagree with each other so vehemently?
It may be said that scientists’ views differ, but that is generally in matters that are far from us in time, space or human comprehension. There is overwhelming consensus on most areas, such as the percentage of DNA we share with great apes, and complete unanimity on others, like the fact that the Earth revolves around the sun. Economists can’t agree on the most immediate of actions, from the lowering of an interest rate to the revenue likely to be raised by a tax hike. This is quite apart from the fact that the vast majority of these sages failed to predict the most cataclysmic economic event of our time, the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008. (A fact not lost on the UK’s Queen Elizabeth II, who asked on a visit to the London School of Economics that, given the meltdown was so large, “why did nobody notice it?”)
Still, faith in expert economists persists, which translates in global terms into the IMF assuming, and everyone else pretty much having to accept, that whatever it wants to do is right. And all too often that has resulted in one-size-fits-all solutions that are inappropriate for countries having to bend to its will and which benefit transnational capital at the expense of local economies.
The Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman has just condemned the French president Francois Hollande’s recent move towards even more of the austerity measures the IMF is usually keen on (although to be fair, in the case of France, the Fund warned last year that Paris was heading for overkill). Why did Mr Hollande, a socialist elected on the promise that he would end the cruel belt-tightening, alter course so drastically? As Krugman wrote in the New York Times: “France has a big government and a generous welfare state, which free-market ideology says should lead to economic disaster. So disaster is what gets reported, even if it’s not what the numbers say. And Mr Hollande ... appears to believe this ideologically motivated badmouthing. Worse, he has fallen into a vicious circle in which austerity policies cause growth to stall, and this stalled growth is taken as evidence that France needs even more austerity.”
The IMF itself admitted in a confidential report during the East Asian financial crisis of 1997 that an important part of its strategy to shore up Indonesia’s economy had the opposite effect. The fund’s insistence on the closure of 16 insolvent banks, “far from improving public confidence in the banking system, instead set off a renewed ‘flight to safety”.
As the subsequent acceleration in panic and currency collapse were a key reason why then President Suharto’s three decades in power came to an end, the IMF may deserve unintentionally earned credit for helping boot out a dictator – but at incalculable cost to the Indonesian people.
As the Foreign Policy contributor Rick Rowden noted in a recent essay, many developing countries are increasingly resisting demands from the IMF, the World Trade Organisation and the European Union for liberalisation and the opening up of their markets to unfettered outside access, believing that such economic models benefit wealthy nations but may hinder their own ability to build domestic industrial bases.
The obvious truth – one that economic partisans would reject – is that there is no such thing as an impartial economist. Despite their claims to scientific certainty, they all have particular ends in mind and only such foresight as is possible in what is, after all, one aspect of the study of human behaviour – with all the irrationality and stubborn refusal to adhere to the field’s “rules” and graphs that entails.
If most of the world’s weather forecasters had collectively missed the meteorological equivalent of the global financial crisis, they would all have been sacked. The economists got away with it, but perhaps in our hearts we know they are no more to be trusted than politicians. And that is why, I would guess, the Scottish referendum will not be decided by the economic arguments of the two clever men heading the opposing sides.
Passion, gut feeling and the appeal to nationhood will always have greater traction than the frequently inaccurate predictions of the practitioners of what Thomas Carlyle aptly called “the dismal science”.
Sholto Byrnes is a Doha-based commentator and consultant
Race card
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 (PA) US$100,000 (Dirt) 2,000m
7.05pm: Meydan Classic Listed (TB) $175,000 (Turf) 1,600m
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (D) 1,600m
8.50pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy Group 2 (TB) $300,000 (T) 2,810m
9.25pm: Curlin Stakes Listed (TB) $175,000 (D) 2,000m
10pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m
10.35pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m
The National selections
6.30pm: Shahm, 7.05pm: Well Of Wisdom, 7.40pm: Lucius Tiberius, 8.15pm: Captain Von Trapp, 8.50pm: Secret Advisor, 9.25pm: George Villiers, 10pm: American Graffiti, 10.35pm: On The Warpath
SPECS
Nissan 370z Nismo
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 363hp
Torque: 560Nm
Price: Dh184,500
THE%20SPECS
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The biog
Name: Abeer Al Bah
Born: 1972
Husband: Emirati lawyer Salem Bin Sahoo, since 1992
Children: Soud, born 1993, lawyer; Obaid, born 1994, deceased; four other boys and one girl, three months old
Education: BA in Elementary Education, worked for five years in a Dubai school
Company%20profile
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
More from Neighbourhood Watch
Day 1, Dubai Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Sadeera Samarawickrama set pulses racing with his strokeplay on his introduction to Test cricket. It reached a feverish peak when he stepped down the wicket and launched Yasir Shah, who many regard as the world’s leading spinner, back over his head for six. No matter that he was out soon after: it felt as though the future had arrived.
Stat of the day - 5 The last time Sri Lanka played a Test in Dubai – they won here in 2013 – they had four players in their XI who were known as wicketkeepers. This time they have gone one better. Each of Dinesh Chandimal, Kaushal Silva, Samarawickrama, Kusal Mendis, and Niroshan Dickwella – the nominated gloveman here – can keep wicket.
The verdict Sri Lanka want to make history by becoming the first team to beat Pakistan in a full Test series in the UAE. They could not have made a better start, first by winning the toss, then by scoring freely on an easy-paced pitch. The fact Yasir Shah found some turn on Day 1, too, will have interested their own spin bowlers.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
The%20specs
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ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
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Eyasses squad
Charlie Preston (captain) – goal shooter/ goalkeeper (Dubai College)
Arushi Holt (vice-captain) – wing defence / centre (Jumeriah English Speaking School)
Olivia Petricola (vice-captain) – centre / wing attack (Dubai English Speaking College)
Isabel Affley – goalkeeper / goal defence (Dubai English Speaking College)
Jemma Eley – goal attack / wing attack (Dubai College)
Alana Farrell-Morton – centre / wing / defence / wing attack (Nord Anglia International School)
Molly Fuller – goal attack / wing attack (Dubai College)
Caitlin Gowdy – goal defence / wing defence (Dubai English Speaking College)
Noorulain Hussain – goal defence / wing defence (Dubai College)
Zahra Hussain-Gillani – goal defence / goalkeeper (British School Al Khubairat)
Claire Janssen – goal shooter / goal attack (Jumeriah English Speaking School)
Eliza Petricola – wing attack / centre (Dubai English Speaking College)
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%20four-cylinder%20turbo%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E680hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C020Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E9-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7.5L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEarly%202024%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh530%2C000%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The years Ramadan fell in May
Top Hundred overseas picks
London Spirit: Kieron Pollard, Riley Meredith
Welsh Fire: Adam Zampa, David Miller, Naseem Shah
Manchester Originals: Andre Russell, Wanindu Hasaranga, Sean Abbott
Northern Superchargers: Dwayne Bravo, Wahab Riaz
Oval Invincibles: Sunil Narine, Rilee Rossouw
Trent Rockets: Colin Munro
Birmingham Phoenix: Matthew Wade, Kane Richardson
Southern Brave: Quinton de Kock
Ultra processed foods
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
