As ISIL retreats in Iraq and Syria, one fundamental question being asked is whether the organisation still has the potential to rise again. An answer to this question could also help us understand the kind of threat that Al Qaeda in Syria, the group's ideological sibling and rival, presents in the future.
In my opinion, judging the potential of the two groups depends on knowing the answer to another critical question: how much did ISIL owe its rise in 2014 to its absorption of the human and material resources of the dying anti-American insurgency in Iraq in the years after 2007? ISIL’s predecessors operated within a sea of Sunni insurgent groups of disparate ideological stripes. That well-resourced, battle-hardened and politically charged insurgency rapidly transformed in the wake of the United States’s troop surge in 2007 as various factions turned their guns against their wayward fellow.
According to observers as well as the group’s own writings, the insurgency transformed in large part by virtue of a military momentum led by the increased US forces on the ground and a tribal uprising known as the Awakening Councils. An internal assessment by ISIL’s predecessor in 2010 explained the failure of the transformation this way: “The continuation of the Awakening Councils’ momentum was impossible because the motives that led people to them quickly crumbled in the face of the dangerous consequences that they caused.”
Read more from the same author:
> Fighting sectarianism is about more than just countering Iran
> It's time for the Syrian opposition to realise that its regional backers have moved on
The US succeeded in turning the bulk of the Iraqi insurgents into allies. But no further steps were taken to sustain the success and preserve the transformation. Many young fighters were galvanised by the US-sponsored project in Sunni areas, while others were not fully convinced. As time went by and the factors that created the momentum weakened, ISIL’s previous incarnation appeared better positioned than before to inherit the dying insurgency.
Inheriting an insurgency is not limited to winning recruits or to even being popular. It is also about being seen as the only viable force with the resolve to carry on the cause. In the years leading to the takeover of Mosul, ISIL seized the power vacuum and the impotent rage and absorbed what remained of the insurgency. A minority of locals joined it, and a little more cheered for it silently, but ISIL benefited from the existence of a large base, which previously supported the broader insurgency, to operate in a hospitable environment or at least without resistance.
In unresolved conflicts, an insurgency base does not easily go away. The Islamist insurgency against Hafez Al Assad in the 1970s and 1980s was wiped out but some of it came to life when the Syrian uprising turned into an armed conflict. Syrian groups like Ahrar Al Sham and Jabhat Al Nusra could even be regarded as the second generation of the 1970s militancy.
So, to answer the original question, ISIL's rise in 2014 could be attributed to its exploitation of the hidden energy of a defeated insurgency. That opportunity may not necessarily exist today for ISIL. The Iraqi government has the ability to capitalise on the military gains and the popular awareness of what ISIL stands for to move the country forward.
In Syria, though, the potential to inherit and absorb an insurgency exists, and Al Qaeda is better positioned than ISIL to do so.
The mainstream Syrian opposition is heading towards defeat. Half of the country is controlled by ISIL or its US-backed enemies, and the other half is either held by the regime, increasingly being dominated Al Qaeda or in the process of being turned into de-escalation zones — with no clear political outcome. On the surface, the Syrian conflict appears poised for a settlement. Foreign backers of the opposition have abandoned previous objectives to oust the regime, and many of them are focused primarily on threats posed by extremists. Communities are also devastated.
Outside observers and foreign policy makers may look at the situation in Syria and see various pieces coming together. They see events are shifting towards a clear resolution, and a momentum for peace is slowly building. That foreign backers of the opposition have abandoned the rebels is sometimes cited as a reason to move ahead with reaching ceasefires without dealing with the essence of the Syrian conflict, namely the regime and its repressive security apparatus.
But that is a mistake that has been made in previous conflicts. Officials could present compelling data to demonstrate success in Iraq and Afghanistan, but the US continues to go back to fight another war within long wars.
The same mistake is being made in Syria. Hayat Tahrir Al Sham has become increasingly aggressive and forceful in its attempts to push aside any rebel competition and establish itself as the custodian of armed struggle against the regime.
In Idlib, it took a series of steps since the summer of last year to rebrand itself and dominate the northwestern province and its vicinity. This week, the group moved one step further in its hegemonic project when it publicised its intention to establish a "civil administration" for northern Syria. On Tuesday, it asked Idlib's civilian council to step aside as the group takes control of governance in the city.
Sources indicate that the group has also dispatched around three dozen leading members, such as the previous chief of its Deir Ezzor branch, Abu Mariyyah Al Qahtani, who is well-versed in tribal outreach, to southern Syria to expand itself and prepare for a potential return when ISIL is expelled from eastern Syria.
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With its rebranding, forceful acquisition and expansion, the group took a leaf out of the book of ISIL’s predecessor after 2005. Its current approach focuses on a combination of weakening and eliminating rivalry, steadily controlling local resources and presenting itself as the uncompromising force against the regime of Bashar Al Assad.
The group’s chances of echoing ISIL’s successes in recent years will depend on whether policy makers grasp the fact that the conflict in Syria, and in Iraq before it, cannot be ended with mere military gains and rosy data.
Hassan Hassan is a senior fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy
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Read more from Opinion:
> Editorial: Only unity will defeat ISIL in all its forms
> The question of reconstruction could determine Assad's political destiny
> Mosul has been reclaimed from ISIL, but the most important battle is yet to come
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Leap of Faith
Michael J Mazarr
Public Affairs
Dh67
Fifa Club World Cup quarter-final
Kashima Antlers 3 (Nagaki 49’, Serginho 69’, Abe 84’)
Guadalajara 2 (Zaldivar 03’, Pulido 90')
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESam%20Ottewill-Soulsby%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPrinceton%20University%20Press%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E392%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJuly%2011%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
About Proto21
Date started: May 2018
Founder: Pir Arkam
Based: Dubai
Sector: Additive manufacturing (aka, 3D printing)
Staff: 18
Funding: Invested, supported and partnered by Joseph Group
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Switch%20Foods%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Edward%20Hamod%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Plant-based%20meat%20production%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2034%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%246.5%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20round%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Based%20in%20US%20and%20across%20Middle%20East%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Details
Kabir Singh
Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series
Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga
Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa
Rating: 2.5/5
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
The biog
Hometown: Cairo
Age: 37
Favourite TV series: The Handmaid’s Tale, Black Mirror
Favourite anime series: Death Note, One Piece and Hellsing
Favourite book: Designing Brand Identity, Fifth Edition
HIV on the rise in the region
A 2019 United Nations special analysis on Aids reveals 37 per cent of new HIV infections in the Mena region are from people injecting drugs.
New HIV infections have also risen by 29 per cent in western Europe and Asia, and by 7 per cent in Latin America, but declined elsewhere.
Egypt has shown the highest increase in recorded cases of HIV since 2010, up by 196 per cent.
Access to HIV testing, treatment and care in the region is well below the global average.
Few statistics have been published on the number of cases in the UAE, although a UNAIDS report said 1.5 per cent of the prison population has the virus.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Essentials
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct from the UAE to Geneva from Dh2,845 return, including taxes. The flight takes 6 hours.
The package
Clinique La Prairie offers a variety of programmes. A six-night Master Detox costs from 14,900 Swiss francs (Dh57,655), including all food, accommodation and a set schedule of medical consultations and spa treatments.
Price, base / as tested From Dh173,775 (base model)
Engine 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo, AWD
Power 249hp at 5,500rpm
Torque 365Nm at 1,300-4,500rpm
Gearbox Nine-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined 7.9L/100km
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The specs: 2018 Mercedes-Benz E 300 Cabriolet
Price, base / as tested: Dh275,250 / Dh328,465
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder
Power: 245hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm @ 1,300rpm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.0L / 100km
THE%20SPECS
%3Cp%3EEngine%3A%204.4-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20653hp%20at%205%2C400rpm%0D%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20800Nm%20at%201%2C600-5%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3ETransmission%3A%208-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E0-100kph%20in%204.3sec%0D%3Cbr%3ETop%20speed%20250kph%0D%3Cbr%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20NA%0D%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20Q2%202023%0D%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh750%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Transmission: six-speed manual
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Speed: 0-100km/h 3.9 seconds
Price: Dh230,000
On sale: now
HOSTS
T20 WORLD CUP
2024: US and West Indies; 2026: India and Sri Lanka; 2028: Australia and New Zealand; 2030: England, Ireland and Scotland
ODI WORLD CUP
2027: South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia; 2031: India and
Bangladesh
CHAMPIONS TROPHY
2025: Pakistan; 2029: India
RESULTS
Light Flyweight (48kg): Alua Balkibekova (KAZ) beat Gulasal Sultonalieva (UZB) by points 4-1.
Flyweight (51kg): Nazym Kyzaibay (KAZ) beat Mary Kom (IND) 3-2.
Bantamweight (54kg): Dina Zholaman (KAZ) beat Sitora Shogdarova (UZB) 3-2.
Featherweight (57kg): Sitora Turdibekova (UZB) beat Vladislava Kukhta (KAZ) 5-0.
Lightweight (60kg): Rimma Volossenko (KAZ) beat Huswatun Hasanah (INA) KO round-1.
Light Welterweight (64kg): Milana Safronova (KAZ) beat Lalbuatsaihi (IND) 3-2.
Welterweight (69kg): Valentina Khalzova (KAZ) beat Navbakhor Khamidova (UZB) 5-0
Middleweight (75kg): Pooja Rani (IND) beat Mavluda Movlonova (UZB) 5-0.
Light Heavyweight (81kg): Farida Sholtay (KAZ) beat Ruzmetova Sokhiba (UZB) 5-0.
Heavyweight (81 kg): Lazzat Kungeibayeva (KAZ) beat Anupama (IND) 3-2.
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
