Judging by recent statements I have heard from the United States, an American military surge in Afghanistan seems like a real possibility.
First, a few words on the nature of conflict. It is a war between Afghanis who style themselves as freedom fighters against what they view as foreign invaders assisting a government they have installed.
This will not be a war of pitched battles, but of skirmishes, raids and ambushes. But wars are fought to be won, so what would constitute victory for the US?
In modern military campaigns, commanders define their maximum and minimum aims to achieve victory. In my opinion, the maximum aim would be to return Afghanistan to the state of a stable, secure country; and the minimum aim would be to return it to a state sufficiently secure and stable that the government can govern and its own agencies can maintain law and order.
If that is so, how does the US get there? Since America’s military experience is on foreign soil, they are indifferent to the concept of “winning hearts and minds”. Thus the use of the obscene term “collateral damage” for the innocent people they kill or maim.
If they have to achieve just the minimum aim, this time they have to win the hearts and minds of most Afghans.
Since they have spent the past decade and a half alienating the locals, this is a daunting task. The upside is that it’s still not impossible. The downside is that to try to succeed in this daunting task will result in increasing American casualties.
Foremost here is the requirement of good governance. Since Kabul’s writ is confined to its immediate surroundings, this will require the use of force. But it will have to be temperate and selective.
The use of intelligence will need to be intensified. But the vastly superior electronic intelligence capabilities of the US are of limited value in identifying targets. To American eyes, all assemblies where Afghans are armed seem threatening and therefore suspicious. Sensible safety measures require offensive pre-emption of all such assemblies. If hearts and minds are to be won, this will have to change. If it is changed, there will be more US casualties.
Therefore there is a need for old-fashioned human intelligence which, over the years, the CIA has become less proficient at and has resorted to outsourcing. But this is also likely to fail. The few Afghans who will take the risk of becoming domestic pariahs are those already at the fringes of society. Others may be double agents.
In support of governance, it is essential to have an efficient system of justice. No central or even provincial justice system in Afghanistan has ever had an outreach beyond towns and cities. Over time, it has disappeared from these, too.
Consequently, the only thing that will work will be the restoration of the age-old tribal/village jirgas (assemblies), with some kind of semi-official recognition.
The catch here is to find a leader and members for jirgas that are acceptable to locals. This has been tried, at least in some areas of southern Afghanistan; but with disastrous results.
The reason is that Americans tend to pick the first volunteer. The only ones who will volunteer are those who are apprehensive of tribal reprisal and/or aware that they will never make it to this position by their own right.
The risk here is that, if you pick the wrong guy, you will either alienate the rest of the tribe or be arming potential enemies.
The sole way forward will be to bring the enemy into mainstream politics like the United Kingdom finally did with the IRA. To do this, there will need to be a loya jirga (grand assembly). But it has to be a real one.
The art of negotiation, even coercive negotiation, is to use the strengths of the opposition against it. The Pashtun are egalitarian.
Not only the member of each tribe is equal, but each tribe, irrespective of numbers or strength, is equal. Therefore, a loya jirga is functional only if it invites all stakeholders. It can be done, but will it?
Brig Shaukat Qadir is a retired Pakistani infantry officer
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Ticket prices
- Golden circle - Dh995
- Floor Standing - Dh495
- Lower Bowl Platinum - Dh95
- Lower Bowl premium - Dh795
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- Upper Bowl standard - Dh295
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The Orwell Prize for Political Writing
Twelve books were longlisted for The Orwell Prize for Political Writing. The non-fiction works cover various themes from education, gender bias, and the environment to surveillance and political power. Some of the books that made it to the non-fiction longlist include:
- Appeasing Hitler: Chamberlain, Churchill and the Road to War by Tim Bouverie
- Some Kids I Taught and What They Taught Me by Kate Clanchy
- Invisible Women: Exposing Data Bias in a World Designed for Men by Caroline Criado Perez
- Follow Me, Akhi: The Online World of British Muslims by Hussein Kesvani
- Guest House for Young Widows: Among the Women of ISIS by Azadeh Moaveni
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Famous left-handers
- Marie Curie
- Jimi Hendrix
- Leonardo Di Vinci
- David Bowie
- Paul McCartney
- Albert Einstein
- Jack the Ripper
- Barack Obama
- Helen Keller
- Joan of Arc
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Essentials
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Delhi from about Dh950 return including taxes.
The hotels
Double rooms at Tijara Fort-Palace cost from 6,670 rupees (Dh377), including breakfast.
Doubles at Fort Bishangarh cost from 29,030 rupees (Dh1,641), including breakfast. Doubles at Narendra Bhawan cost from 15,360 rupees (Dh869). Doubles at Chanoud Garh cost from 19,840 rupees (Dh1,122), full board. Doubles at Fort Begu cost from 10,000 rupees (Dh565), including breakfast.
The tours
Amar Grover travelled with Wild Frontiers. A tailor-made, nine-day itinerary via New Delhi, with one night in Tijara and two nights in each of the remaining properties, including car/driver, costs from £1,445 (Dh6,968) per person.
The Uefa Awards winners
Uefa Men's Player of the Year: Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Uefa Women's Player of the Year: Lucy Bronze (Lyon)
Best players of the 2018/19 Uefa Champions League
Goalkeeper: Alisson (Liverpool)
Defender: Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Midfielder: Frenkie de Jong (Ajax)
Forward: Lionel Messi (Barcelona)
Uefa President's Award: Eric Cantona
Name: Peter Dicce
Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics
Favourite sport: soccer
Favourite team: Bayern Munich
Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer
Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates
Martin Sabbagh profile
Job: CEO JCDecaux Middle East
In the role: Since January 2015
Lives: In the UAE
Background: M&A, investment banking
Studied: Corporate finance
Company Profile
Company name: OneOrder
Started: October 2021
Founders: Tamer Amer and Karim Maurice
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Industry: technology, logistics
Investors: A15 and self-funded
