Last week, a surprising news story punctured the western media's silence on developments in Iraq. Newspapers quoted an anonymous US military source as saying that the Iraqi government was planning an offensive in April or May to retake the city of Mosul. Five army brigades would attack, while Kurdish forces would block off the city from the north and west.
The report was bizarre on several levels. Armies do not usually signal in advance when they are going to attack or the disposition of their forces. Such things are for the enemy’s military intelligence to find out.
Apart from this, the plan contradicts the guiding principle of the anti-ISIL coalition. This is that the new Iraqi government under Haider Al Abadi has only one shot at retaking Mosul, a city of one million people. The military action cannot be rushed but has to be part of a broad effort to reconstitute Iraq as a state for all its citizens, reversing the Shia Muslim hegemony put in place by the prime minister’s predecessor, Nouri Al Maliki.
If the operation to retake Mosul fails, or causes so much destruction that it alienates the Sunni Muslim population or is seen as a victory for Shia paramilitaries not the Iraqi army, then the whole enterprise will disintegrate. The idea that the Iraqi army, which so spectacularly collapsed in June, could be capable of retaking Mosul by April is not credible.
The Pentagon has dissociated itself from the briefing after complaints from Iraq that it gave the impression that the US military was back in charge of the operation, not merely supplying training and support.
Many have asked what US Central Command was thinking of in making such a briefing. From a military point of view, they have a story to tell: ISIL has lost its offensive capability in Iraq due to US-led air strikes and the efforts of Iraqi army, Shia militias and Kurdish fighters. Perhaps the military thought it was time to undermine ISIL’s morale.
Mr Al Abadi, the new prime minister, has provoked the US military, by complaining he was “frustrated” that Washington had not been acting fast enough to help Iraq turn the tide against ISIL. Earlier this month, he said Iraq was planning an offensive to retake Mosul, but he was careful not to raise hopes of an imminent victory, saying only that he hoped it would be before the end of the year.
The truth is that Mr Al Abadi is a man in a hurry, who feels he has only a brief window to retake Mosul before his rivals for power coalesce against him. His strongest ally is America, but he cannot fail to be aware that Washington’s appetite for long-term engagement in Iraq has its limits.
Waiting in the wings is Mr Al Maliki, the former prime minister, who is far from a spent force. Energetic and forceful, he was chosen by Washington in 2006 to be prime minister after three years of transitional governments. Having been a self-exiled political activist for the opposition Da’wa Party in Syria and Iran since 1979, he gradually learnt to apply the arts of Middle Eastern autocracy. He made the army “coup-proof”, but unfit for any military task, by filling senior ranks with his placemen or corrupt and incompetent officers. He became the champion of the Shia, a long oppressed majority, while curbing the influence of the Sunnis and stoking enmity among the Kurds.
Despite being removed as prime minister last year under US pressure after the Mosul debacle, he remains a vice president, and is polishing his relations with Iran and its allies, including Hizbollah in Lebanon. While the current prime minister, whose years of exile were spent running an engineering firm in Britain, cannot disguise his dependence on Washington, Mr Al Maliki is carving out an anti-American position.
He blames Washington for creating ISIL and says it was American reluctance to supply the necessary weapons to the Iraqi army (rather than the weakness he created in it) that caused it to run away from the ISIL attack. He blames the Kurds for provoking ISIL to attack Mosul so they could achieve their long-held goal of sharing oil revenues with Baghdad.
While Mr Al Maliki may publicly forswear any immediate plans to return as prime minister, he is a constant reminder of the way politics has been done for the past decade: whatever his failures, he remains the political champion of Shias. Mr Al Abadi is a man of goodwill with a rational plan that fits the requirement to hold Iraq together as a single state. But he is not the champion of any of Iraqi’s ethnic or religious communities. Unlike his predecessor, he needs success to survive.
There are good military reasons to suppose that Mr Al Abadi could succeed in dislodging ISIL from the city of Mosul. The jihadists are at war with two-thirds of the Iraqi population. They maintain control through the exercise of unimaginable brutality. No regional state army will come to support them. This is not a promising alignment of forces for ISIL. Politics, however, will probably be decisive. The Sunni populations who live under the ISIL yoke need to be convinced that their life would not be worse under the rule of Shia paramilitaries.
In Mr Al Abadi’s favour is the position of Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani, the most influential Shia cleric in Iraq, who intervened in the political process last year to call for the removal of Mr Al Maliki.
Balanced against this is the history of civil conflicts, where sectarian or ethnic identity trumps all other assets. Mr Al Abadi needs to show Iraqis that his plan is working and Iraq can be rebuilt as a functioning state. He does not have unlimited time, but the US military trying to hurry things along does not help.
Alan Philps is a commentator on global affairs
On Twitter @aphilps
WHAT IS GRAPHENE?
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were experimenting with sticky tape and graphite, the material used as lead in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But when they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics.
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
'Cheb%20Khaled'
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ENGLAND SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Jack Butland, Jordan Pickford, Nick Pope
Defenders: John Stones, Harry Maguire, Phil Jones, Kyle Walker, Kieran Trippier, Gary Cahill, Ashley Young, Danny Rose, Trent Alexander-Arnold
Midfielders: Eric Dier, Jordan Henderson, Dele Alli, Jesse Lingard, Raheem Sterling, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Fabian Delph
Forwards: Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy, Marcus Rashford, Danny Welbeck
The%20specs
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MATCH INFO
Barcelona 5 (Lenglet 2', Vidal 29', Messi 34', 75', Suarez 77')
Valladolid 1 (Kiko 15')
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Where to buy art books in the UAE
There are a number of speciality art bookshops in the UAE.
In Dubai, The Lighthouse at Dubai Design District has a wonderfully curated selection of art and design books. Alserkal Avenue runs a pop-up shop at their A4 space, and host the art-book fair Fully Booked during Art Week in March. The Third Line, also in Alserkal Avenue, has a strong book-publishing arm and sells copies at its gallery. Kinokuniya, at Dubai Mall, has some good offerings within its broad selection, and you never know what you will find at the House of Prose in Jumeirah. Finally, all of Gulf Photo Plus’s photo books are available for sale at their show.
In Abu Dhabi, Louvre Abu Dhabi has a beautiful selection of catalogues and art books, and Magrudy’s – across the Emirates, but particularly at their NYU Abu Dhabi site – has a great selection in art, fiction and cultural theory.
In Sharjah, the Sharjah Art Museum sells catalogues and art books at its museum shop, and the Sharjah Art Foundation has a bookshop that offers reads on art, theory and cultural history.
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MATCH INFO
Europa League final
Who: Marseille v Atletico Madrid
Where: Parc OL, Lyon, France
When: Wednesday, 10.45pm kick off (UAE)
TV: BeIN Sports
Champions League Last 16
Red Bull Salzburg (AUT) v Bayern Munich (GER)
Sporting Lisbon (POR) v Manchester City (ENG)
Benfica (POR) v Ajax (NED)
Chelsea (ENG) v Lille (FRA)
Atletico Madrid (ESP) v Manchester United (ENG)
Villarreal (ESP) v Juventus (ITA)
Inter Milan (ITA) v Liverpool (ENG)
Paris Saint-Germain v Real Madrid (ESP)
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Director: Paul Weitz
Stars: Kevin Hart
3/5 stars
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Moral education needed in a 'rapidly changing world'
Moral education lessons for young people is needed in a rapidly changing world, the head of the programme said.
Alanood Al Kaabi, head of programmes at the Education Affairs Office of the Crown Price Court - Abu Dhabi, said: "The Crown Price Court is fully behind this initiative and have already seen the curriculum succeed in empowering young people and providing them with the necessary tools to succeed in building the future of the nation at all levels.
"Moral education touches on every aspect and subject that children engage in.
"It is not just limited to science or maths but it is involved in all subjects and it is helping children to adapt to integral moral practises.
"The moral education programme has been designed to develop children holistically in a world being rapidly transformed by technology and globalisation."
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday (UAE kick-off times)
Cologne v Hoffenheim (11.30pm)
Saturday
Hertha Berlin v RB Leipzig (6.30pm)
Schalke v Fortuna Dusseldof (6.30pm)
Mainz v Union Berlin (6.30pm)
Paderborn v Augsburg (6.30pm)
Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund (9.30pm)
Sunday
Borussia Monchengladbach v Werder Bremen (4.30pm)
Wolfsburg v Bayer Leverkusen (6.30pm)
SC Freiburg v Eintracht Frankfurt (9on)
Asian Cup 2019
Quarter-final
UAE v Australia, Friday, 8pm, Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
Villains
Queens of the Stone Age
Matador
Schedule:
Sept 15: Bangladesh v Sri Lanka (Dubai)
Sept 16: Pakistan v Qualifier (Dubai)
Sept 17: Sri Lanka v Afghanistan (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 18: India v Qualifier (Dubai)
Sept 19: India v Pakistan (Dubai)
Sept 20: Bangladesh v Afghanistan (Abu Dhabi) Super Four
Sept 21: Group A Winner v Group B Runner-up (Dubai)
Sept 21: Group B Winner v Group A Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 23: Group A Winner v Group A Runner-up (Dubai)
Sept 23: Group B Winner v Group B Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 25: Group A Winner v Group B Winner (Dubai)
Sept 26: Group A Runner-up v Group B Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 28: Final (Dubai)
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RESULTS FOR STAGE 4
Stage 4 Dubai to Hatta, 197 km, Road race.
Overall leader Primoz Roglic SLO (Team Jumbo - Visma)
Stage winners: 1. Caleb Ewan AUS (Lotto - Soudal) 2. Matteo Moschetti ITA (Trek - Segafredo) 3. Primoz Roglic SLO (Team Jumbo - Visma)
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2a)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.7%E2%80%9D%20flexible%20Amoled%2C%202412%20x%201080%2C%20394ppi%2C%20120Hz%2C%20Corning%20Gorilla%20Glass%205%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MediaTek%20Dimensity%207200%20Pro%2C%204nm%2C%20octa-core%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%2F12GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20128%2F256GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Android%2014%2C%20Nothing%20OS%202.5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%2050MP%20main%2C%20f%2F1.88%20%2B%2050MP%20ultra-wide%2C%20f%2F2.2%3B%20OIS%2C%20EIS%2C%20auto-focus%2C%20ultra%20XDR%2C%20night%20mode%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%20video%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%20%40%2030fps%2C%20full-HD%20%40%2060fps%3B%20slo-mo%20full-HD%20at%20120fps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2032MP%20wide%2C%20f%2F2.2%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205000mAh%3B%2050%25%20in%2030%20mins%20w%2F%2045w%20charger%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Google%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBiometrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fingerprint%2C%20face%20unlock%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20USB-C%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP54%2C%20limited%20protection%20from%20water%2Fdust%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual-nano%20SIM%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Black%2C%20milk%2C%20white%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nothing%20Phone%20(2a)%2C%20USB-C-to-USB-C%20cable%2C%20pre-applied%20screen%20protector%2C%20SIM%20tray%20ejector%20tool%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%20(UAE)%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dh1%2C199%20(8GB%2F128GB)%20%2F%20Dh1%2C399%20(12GB%2F256GB)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What is an ETF?
An exchange traded fund is a type of investment fund that can be traded quickly and easily, just like stocks and shares. They come with no upfront costs aside from your brokerage's dealing charges and annual fees, which are far lower than on traditional mutual investment funds. Charges are as low as 0.03 per cent on one of the very cheapest (and most popular), Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, with the maximum around 0.75 per cent.
There is no fund manager deciding which stocks and other assets to invest in, instead they passively track their chosen index, country, region or commodity, regardless of whether it goes up or down.
The first ETF was launched as recently as 1993, but the sector boasted $5.78 billion in assets under management at the end of September as inflows hit record highs, according to the latest figures from ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five largest providers BlackRock’s iShares, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisers, Deutsche Bank X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
While the best-known track major indices such as MSCI World, the S&P 500 and FTSE 100, you can also invest in specific countries or regions, large, medium or small companies, government bonds, gold, crude oil, cocoa, water, carbon, cattle, corn futures, currency shifts or even a stock market crash.
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