Strange how it’s taken a banker of all people to articulate what many are thinking – and global financial institutions are shying away from.
Jamie Dimon, the boss of JP Morgan, delivered it straight: “This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.”
A cynic might say, well it’s all right for him, presenting third quarter net profits for his giant bank of $13.15 billion. (A quarter, just in three months!) They were up from $9.737 billion for the same period last year – but down on the second quarter’s $14.5 billion.
Dimon, though, did not have to say anything at all. Plenty of his peers and yes, heads of the world’s monetary organisations, are keeping their counsel.
The bank chief warned there is a risk that inflation will stay high and that interest rates climb further.
The war in Ukraine, compounded by the Hamas attacks on Israel, said Dimon, “may have far-reaching impacts on energy and food markets, global trade and geopolitical relationships. This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades”.
As he spoke, the IMF and World Bank were holding their annual meetings in Marrakesh. Did they echo Dimon’s concern? No. Not when they had the opportunity and public platform to do so. Their declared view was that it’s too early to say what impact the war between Israel and Hamas will have on the global economy.
That’s true, of course, It implies, however, that everything was fine and dandy even before the Hamas onslaught, which it most definitely was not.
Dimon was clear in his assessment, choosing his description carefully, that the Hamas attacks “compounded” an already worrying situation.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict shows no sign of ending any time soon. If anything, a sense of torpor has set in, with some governments growing visibly bored of its longevity, and switching off. There seems to be little urgent, meaningful diplomatic activity taking place towards achieving a settlement – if it is, it is well below the radar (here's hoping).
Global inflation is proving stubbornly sticky to dislodge. Interest rates remain high. They’ve dipped slightly, but central bankers are not celebrating. Indeed, the IMF has said in its just published Outlook that 93 per cent of those countries which set a target for bringing inflation down would not meet them next year. That study was compiled before Hamas lit the fuse.
Recent analysis from UNCTAD (UN Conference on Trade and Development) finds that rising interest rates are driving inequality across the globe and promoting lower levels of investment. Again, the report was written ahead of Hamas striking.
Some nations, notably China, are still struggling with the aftermath of Covid. Poverty is on the increase around the world. Then there is climate change.
What’s concerning is the relative nonchalance where there should be none. All that was achieved in Morocco was that the new World Bank president, Ajay Banga, outlined his vision of a “bolder, bigger, better” World Bank, there was acceptance that the IMF should receive greater funding – oh, and Zambia received assistance towards debt relief.
That was about it. What there was not, along with the absence of alarm, was meaningful action, a sense that things cannot go on as they are.
Achim Steiner, administrator of the UN Development Programme, did spell out one aspect: 52 countries are already in financial distress or at the risk of distress; and nine of the 52, among them Argentina, Zambia and Sri Lanka, have already defaulted.
Far from rushing to assist, the developed nations are in retreat, dealing with their own economic problems and closing their minds to helping others, unless that will improve their tax base.
Cash continues to drain away from Africa in illicit financial flows, mostly to Europe, but the latter only displays an interest in curbing the stream of dirty money from corruption, organised crime and the siphoning of aid development if they can point to revenue gains at home.
Average temperatures are climbing and wildfires and heavy flooding are becoming commonplace, but Germany has reopened its coal plants and the UK has sanctioned a return to extracting fossil fuels. It’s their way of reacting to Ukraine and vulnerability over energy security. But for other developing nations, charged with focusing on renewables, it sticks in the craw.
New power blocs are forming that will not only take some getting used to but promise greater self-interest and destabilisation.
It’s striking that the UN has not been able to bring muscle to bear on the situation in Ukraine, and it’s seemingly unable to dampen the growing Middle East powder keg. From a UK perspective, the decision of the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, to miss the last UN General Assembly sent a dreadful signal as to what matters to him more – shoring up his faltering government or leading his country in international co-operation.
The world bodies require boosting and in short order. The trouble is, as the main powers see it, their interests are not best served by any move in that direction.
Likewise, anyone searching for strong figures does so in vain, at least ones that can command universal respect. There’s a paucity of leadership. The international stage is crying out for strong voices – from politicians as well as institutions. There are no statesmen.
Donald Trump winning the US presidency would be deeply symbolic of how fragile the world order had become.
Why is that it takes the head of a multinational bank to express a collective fear? Our institutions, such as World Bank, IMF and UN, especially their leaders, need to be a bastion in these times.
FA Cup quarter-final draw
The matches will be played across the weekend of 21 and 22 March
Sheffield United v Arsenal
Newcastle v Manchester City
Norwich v Derby/Manchester United
Leicester City v Chelsea
Is it worth it? We put cheesecake frap to the test.
The verdict from the nutritionists is damning. But does a cheesecake frappuccino taste good enough to merit the indulgence?
My advice is to only go there if you have unusually sweet tooth. I like my puddings, but this was a bit much even for me. The first hit is a winner, but it's downhill, slowly, from there. Each sip is a little less satisfying than the last, and maybe it was just all that sugar, but it isn't long before the rush is replaced by a creeping remorse. And half of the thing is still left.
The caramel version is far superior to the blueberry, too. If someone put a full caramel cheesecake through a liquidiser and scooped out the contents, it would probably taste something like this. Blueberry, on the other hand, has more of an artificial taste. It's like someone has tried to invent this drink in a lab, and while early results were promising, they're still in the testing phase. It isn't terrible, but something isn't quite right either.
So if you want an experience, go for a small, and opt for the caramel. But if you want a cheesecake, it's probably more satisfying, and not quite as unhealthy, to just order the real thing.
Sunday's fixtures
- Bournemouth v Southampton, 5.30pm
- Manchester City v West Ham United, 8pm
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
A cryptocurrency primer for beginners
Cryptocurrency Investing for Dummies – by Kiana Danial
There are several primers for investing in cryptocurrencies available online, including e-books written by people whose credentials fall apart on the second page of your preferred search engine.
Ms Danial is a finance coach and former currency analyst who writes for Nasdaq. Her broad-strokes primer (2019) breaks down investing in cryptocurrency into baby steps, while explaining the terms and technologies involved.
Although cryptocurrencies are a fast evolving world, this book offers a good insight into the game as well as providing some basic tips, strategies and warning signs.
Begin your cryptocurrency journey here.
Available at Magrudy’s , Dh104
The lowdown
Bohemian Rhapsody
Director: Bryan Singer
Starring: Rami Malek, Lucy Boynton, Gwilym Lee
Rating: 3/5
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What is the FNC?
The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning.
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval.
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
How Sputnik V works
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The Facility’s Versatility
Between the start of the 2020 IPL on September 20, and the end of the Pakistan Super League this coming Thursday, the Zayed Cricket Stadium has had an unprecedented amount of traffic.
Never before has a ground in this country – or perhaps anywhere in the world – had such a volume of major-match cricket.
And yet scoring has remained high, and Abu Dhabi has seen some classic encounters in every format of the game.
October 18, IPL, Kolkata Knight Riders tied with Sunrisers Hyderabad
The two playoff-chasing sides put on 163 apiece, before Kolkata went on to win the Super Over
January 8, ODI, UAE beat Ireland by six wickets
A century by CP Rizwan underpinned one of UAE’s greatest ever wins, as they chased 270 to win with an over to spare
February 6, T10, Northern Warriors beat Delhi Bulls by eight wickets
The final of the T10 was chiefly memorable for a ferocious over of fast bowling from Fidel Edwards to Nicholas Pooran
March 14, Test, Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe by six wickets
Eleven wickets for Rashid Khan, 1,305 runs scored in five days, and a last session finish
June 17, PSL, Islamabad United beat Peshawar Zalmi by 15 runs
Usman Khawaja scored a hundred as Islamabad posted the highest score ever by a Pakistan team in T20 cricket
