Either this is a classic public relations exercise or the UK really is in for something horrible come this week’s budget.
If it’s the former, even by the standards of PR, the “two chancellors”, Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt, appear to be indulging in major forewarning and softening up. The traditional move is to signal bad stuff to come, then when it’s announced the detail does not appear that harsh. Cue sighs of relief all round, even some smiles and the generation of positive headlines.
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In less regulated times, the corporate spin doctor would suggest to the weekend media a figure for redundancies or branch closures, say. Then, on the Monday morning, when the official bulletin to the Stock Exchange dropped, the number would be less and the accompanying quotes not so doom-laden. Play your cards right and you could even get the shares to rise as a result.
Something similar might be occurring with Sunak and Hunt. The Prime Minister and former Chancellor and the current Chancellor have both gone out of their way to indicate that a tough period awaits, “difficult decisions” have been taken and Britain is facing a cavernous divide in its public finances.
So gloomy have been the predictions of what is to be unveiled, and the reasons for doing it, that you must suspect the chasm is huge. Indeed, they will look rather silly if it turns out not to be the case.
What’s troubling, however, is the total reliance on forecasting by the Office for Budget Responsibility or OBR. Such is the mythical status attached to this organisation and its calculations that we’re led to assume they must always be correct, when, in fact, they can often be wrong, and by a significant margin.
It was the absence of OBR back-up that did for Liz Truss and her Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng. The markets demanded the opinion of the OBR and there was none — they’d gone ahead without consulting the independent body. Now Sunak and Hunt are working closely with the OBR, co-operating fully with their unelected number-crunchers, bringing them into the government’s thinking.
But it’s possible to go back, to revisit and to compare OBR forecasts with what really happened — and they don’t make for pretty reading. The average size of an OBR forecast error concerning the budget deficit for a “current year” is 0.5 per cent of GDP, 1 per cent of GDP for “one year ahead” and 1.8 per cent of GDP for “two years ahead”.
In terms of the present GDP, that would be equivalent to £11bn, £21.5bn and £38.6bn, respectively. In other words, huge numbers — and significant too, when there is talk of a £50bn black hole in the public finances.
These are averages, don’t forget. Since the OBR’s creation in 2010, in three out of 23 cases the in-year forecast error was 0.75 per cent or larger, of GDP. In seven out of 21 cases the one year ahead forecast error was more than 0.75 per cent of GDP.
And in eight out of 20 cases, the two years ahead forecast error was more than 0.75 per cent of GDP. Even taking out the two worst forecasts owing to the unexpected downturn caused by the sudden arrival of a pandemic, that would leave six of 18 — one third — of the two years ahead forecasts over the last decade out by more than 0.75 per cent of GDP.
Small wonder that the economist, Dr Gerard Lyons, says: “We should be mindful of using such forecasts to force through austerity or tax hikes.”
Sunak and Hunt, therefore, find themselves applying measures that may plunge the country into recession, based on the conclusions of an arbiter which is itself frequently mistaken.
They are entitled to reflect ruefully that it wasn’t meant to be like this: the OBR was established by George Osborne, when he became Chancellor, to bring some credence to official forecasting, which for years had been subjected to manipulation by a Labour administration and its long-time financial controller, Gordon Brown.
The problem, though, is that in terms of status and reputation the OBR has become too successful and mighty
Osborne’s motives were honourable, although there was also political trickery at play on his part. The OBR and its objectivity gave him the authority he needed to not only drive though spending cuts but also conform to the Tory ideal of reducing the size of the state. And, come the election, it was a counter to Labour and their spending plans — the Tories were able to repeatedly call for Labour’s intentions to be authenticated by the OBR.
The problem, though, is that in terms of status and reputation the OBR has become too successful and mighty. Its rise coincided with a downturn among the public in their regard for politicians — almost as if a policy was not a policy until it received the OBR’s nod.
It wasn’t just the media and British people who grabbed at the notion of a politically neutral watchdog (the OBR’s growing importance came as its chief was Sir Robert Chote, himself a former journalist and press-smart). The international markets, too, came to want and to rely upon the word of the OBR.
So vital has the office become that it’s a moot point as to who is even running the country’s funding. If the OBR decrees taxes must rise and spending must reduce to keep government borrowing under check, then that is what must occur — to go against the finding or to not involve the OBR at all, which is what Truss and Kwarteng did, risks disaster.
Sunak and Hunt will present the budget as theirs, but in fact it’s the OBR that is dictating the contents. That would be fine if it was always right, but sadly and critically as far as this week’s budget and its likely tough steps are concerned, it’s not.
If you go
Flight connections to Ulaanbaatar are available through a variety of hubs, including Seoul and Beijing, with airlines including Mongolian Airlines and Korean Air. While some nationalities, such as Americans, don’t need a tourist visa for Mongolia, others, including UAE citizens, can obtain a visa on arrival, while others including UK citizens, need to obtain a visa in advance. Contact the Mongolian Embassy in the UAE for more information.
Nomadic Road offers expedition-style trips to Mongolia in January and August, and other destinations during most other months. Its nine-day August 2020 Mongolia trip will cost from $5,250 per person based on two sharing, including airport transfers, two nights’ hotel accommodation in Ulaanbaatar, vehicle rental, fuel, third party vehicle liability insurance, the services of a guide and support team, accommodation, food and entrance fees; nomadicroad.com
A fully guided three-day, two-night itinerary at Three Camel Lodge costs from $2,420 per person based on two sharing, including airport transfers, accommodation, meals and excursions including the Yol Valley and Flaming Cliffs. A return internal flight from Ulaanbaatar to Dalanzadgad costs $300 per person and the flight takes 90 minutes each way; threecamellodge.com
PROFILE OF SWVL
Started: April 2017
Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport
Size: 450 employees
Investment: approximately $80 million
Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani
The Birkin bag is made by Hermès.
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.
Read more about the coronavirus
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
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The biog
Name: Dhabia Khalifa AlQubaisi
Age: 23
How she spends spare time: Playing with cats at the clinic and feeding them
Inspiration: My father. He’s a hard working man who has been through a lot to provide us with everything we need
Favourite book: Attitude, emotions and the psychology of cats by Dr Nicholes Dodman
Favourit film: 101 Dalmatians - it remind me of my childhood and began my love of dogs
Word of advice: By being patient, good things will come and by staying positive you’ll have the will to continue to love what you're doing
Specs%20
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Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
'Will%20of%20the%20People'
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Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Barbie
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Pathaan
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The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
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High profile Al Shabab attacks
- 2010: A restaurant attack in Kampala Uganda kills 74 people watching a Fifa World Cup final football match.
- 2013: The Westgate shopping mall attack, 62 civilians, five Kenyan soldiers and four gunmen are killed.
- 2014: A series of bombings and shootings across Kenya sees scores of civilians killed.
- 2015: Four gunmen attack Garissa University College in northeastern Kenya and take over 700 students hostage, killing those who identified as Christian; 148 die and 79 more are injured.
- 2016: An attack on a Kenyan military base in El Adde Somalia kills 180 soldiers.
- 2017: A suicide truck bombing outside the Safari Hotel in Mogadishu kills 587 people and destroys several city blocks, making it the deadliest attack by the group and the worst in Somalia’s history.
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HOW TO WATCH
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Founders: Michele Ferrario, Nino Ulsamer and Freddy Lim
Started: established in 2016 and launched in July 2017
Based: Singapore, with offices in the UAE, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand
Sector: FinTech, wealth management
Initial investment: $500,000 in seed round 1 in 2016; $2.2m in seed round 2 in 2017; $5m in series A round in 2018; $12m in series B round in 2019; $16m in series C round in 2020 and $25m in series D round in 2021
Current staff: more than 160 employees
Stage: series D
Investors: EightRoads Ventures, Square Peg Capital, Sequoia Capital India
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
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THE%20SWIMMERS
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SPEC%20SHEET
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
PRISCILLA
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League last-16, second leg:
Real Madrid 1 (Asensio 70'), Ajax 4 (Ziyech 7', Neres 18', Tadic 62', Schone 72')
Ajax win 5-3 on aggregate
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
HOSTS
T20 WORLD CUP
2024: US and West Indies; 2026: India and Sri Lanka; 2028: Australia and New Zealand; 2030: England, Ireland and Scotland
ODI WORLD CUP
2027: South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia; 2031: India and
Bangladesh
CHAMPIONS TROPHY
2025: Pakistan; 2029: India
