By the end of September, Europe’s three most powerful countries will all have had elections: France, which begins next week, Germany in September, and now, with British prime minister Theresa May’s surprise announcement, the UK in June. Mrs May, at least, will be confident of a victory. But there are no guarantees and the results of these three elections will have a profound effect on the Middle East.
Britain’s will be the least momentous, if only because the result is expected. But the trade deals that Mrs May wanted to negotiate post-Brexit with the Middle East will be on pause until it is certain she will be prime minister. In January, the UK announced a Dh465 million deal with Turkey to build fighter jets. The prime minister has made no secret that she wants to conclude other deals with the Gulf states and India. But until she wins in June, those will have to wait.
In France, with the election still too close to call, the possibility of a victory for Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right party the National Front, will raise jitters across the Middle East. Although Ms Le Pen as president is unlikely, her anti-immigrant stance has already affected the way French Muslims, many of whom are Arabs, and Syrian refugees are perceived in the country.
But it is in Germany that the election will be most closely watched from the region. Germany is very much Europe’s powerhouse and its policy on issues like Syria’s refugees and its stance towards Turkey could have a profound effect on the situation on the ground. Angela Merkel is no longer as dominant as she was – her policy towards Syrian refugees has affected her standing in the country – and if she loses as chancellor, Germany will take a step into the unknown. Mrs Merkel has been leader for 12 years and is, more than any other European leader, a known quantity. Without her, Germany may decide to shut the door on refugees, or pursue a less stable relationship with Turkey – both of which could make the situation in Syria and the region more unstable.
When Mrs May fired the starting gun for a new election this week, she also provoked further uncertainty across the Middle East, which is watching where Europe goes next.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 247hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm from 1,500-3,500rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 7.8L/100km
Price: from Dh94,900
On sale: now
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Roll of honour
Who has won what so far in the West Asia Premiership season?
Western Clubs Champions League - Winners: Abu Dhabi Harlequins; Runners up: Bahrain
Dubai Rugby Sevens - Winners: Dubai Exiles; Runners up: Jebel Ali Dragons
West Asia Premiership - Winners: Jebel Ali Dragons; Runners up: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Premiership Cup - Winners: Abu Dhabi Harlequins; Runners up: Dubai Exiles
West Asia Cup - Winners: Bahrain; Runners up: Dubai Exiles
West Asia Trophy - Winners: Dubai Hurricanes; Runners up: DSC Eagles
Final West Asia Premiership standings - 1. Jebel Ali Dragons; 2. Abu Dhabi Harlequins; 3. Bahrain; 4. Dubai Exiles; 5. Dubai Hurricanes; 6. DSC Eagles; 7. Abu Dhabi Saracens
Fixture (UAE Premiership final) - Friday, April 13, Al Ain – Dubai Exiles v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
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On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
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NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The Gentlemen
Director: Guy Ritchie
Stars: Colin Farrell, Hugh Grant
Three out of five stars
Plastic tipping points
The specs
ABU%20DHABI'S%20KEY%20TOURISM%20GOALS%3A%20BY%20THE%20NUMBERS
Fines for littering
In Dubai:
Dh200 for littering or spitting in the Dubai Metro
Dh500 for throwing cigarette butts or chewing gum on the floor, or littering from a vehicle.
Dh1,000 for littering on a beach, spitting in public places, throwing a cigarette butt from a vehicle
In Sharjah and other emirates
Dh500 for littering - including cigarette butts and chewing gum - in public places and beaches in Sharjah
Dh2,000 for littering in Sharjah deserts
Dh500 for littering from a vehicle in Ras Al Khaimah
Dh1,000 for littering from a car in Abu Dhabi
Dh1,000 to Dh100,000 for dumping waste in residential or public areas in Al Ain
Dh10,000 for littering at Ajman's beaches
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
if you go
Getting there
Etihad (Etihad.com), Emirates (emirates.com) and Air France (www.airfrance.com) fly to Paris’ Charles de Gaulle Airport, from Abu Dhabi and Dubai respectively. Return flights cost from around Dh3,785. It takes about 40 minutes to get from Paris to Compiègne by train, with return tickets costing €19. The Glade of the Armistice is 6.6km east of the railway station.
Staying there
On a handsome, tree-lined street near the Chateau’s park, La Parenthèse du Rond Royal (laparenthesedurondroyal.com) offers spacious b&b accommodation with thoughtful design touches. Lots of natural woods, old fashioned travelling trunks as decoration and multi-nozzle showers are part of the look, while there are free bikes for those who want to cycle to the glade. Prices start at €120 a night.
More information: musee-armistice-14-18.fr ; compiegne-tourisme.fr; uk.france.fr
Results
5pm: UAE Martyrs Cup (TB) Conditions Dh90,000 2,200m
Winner: Mudaarab, Jim Crowley (jockey), Erwan Charpy (trainer).
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Handicap Dh70,000 1,400m
Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Richard Mullen, Hassan Al Hammadi.
6pm: UAE Matyrs Trophy (PA) Maiden Dh80,000 1,600m
Winner: Salima Al Reef, Jesus Rosales, Abdallah Al Hammadi.
6.30pm: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak (IFAHR) Apprentice Championship (PA) Prestige Dh100,000 1,600m
Winner: Bainoona, Ricardo Iacopini, Eric Lemartinel.
7pm: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak (IFAHR) Ladies World Championship (PA) Prestige Dh125,000 1,600m
Winner: Assyad, Victoria Larsen, Eric Lemartinel.
8pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan Jewel Crown (PA) Group 1 Dh5,000,000 1,600m
Winner: Mashhur Al Khalediah, Jean-Bernard Eyquem, Phillip Collington.
Premier Futsal 2017 Finals
Al Wasl Football Club; six teams, five-a-side
Delhi Dragons: Ronaldinho
Bengaluru Royals: Paul Scholes
Mumbai Warriors: Ryan Giggs
Chennai Ginghams: Hernan Crespo
Telugu Tigers: Deco
Kerala Cobras: Michel Salgado
THE SPECS
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 275hp at 6,600rpm
Torque: 353Nm from 1,450-4,700rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Top speed: 250kph
Fuel consumption: 6.8L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: Dh146,999