To avoid the next pandemic, you need to know the difference between a black swan and a grey rhino


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Despite a chorus of financiers, politicians and self-satisfied pundits claiming that the Covid-19 pandemic is an unforeseen and even unforeseeable black swan, this crisis is a different beast entirely.

It is an obvious grey rhino – that is, a high-impact scenario that was always highly likely to occur. The pandemic was sending clear signals that it was getting ready to charge, and too many people with the power to head it off ignored those warnings for too long.

Unlike the black swan that appears only in hindsight, grey rhino theory is forward-looking. It is about actively seeing what’s in front of us and challenging ourselves to act.

The coronavirus crisis is a catalyst for an urgently needed reset of our global mentality, reminding us to hold both governments and ourselves as citizens responsible for stepping up to the clear and present dangers that threaten our survival.

As we move past the initial shock of the pandemic, many of us are thinking about how best to emerge from this global public health, economic and human catastrophe. We don’t want to get “back to normal” because what we accepted as normal is what got us into this mess. Rather, we should want to create a new and better reality.

How could so many leaders across society have turned such a blind eye to giant, red warning flags for so long? Once we understand that, how can we use our knowledge to switch from a passive, fatalistic mode to an active, problem-solving frame?

The alarm bells rung by experts about how poorly prepared the world has been for the pandemics have been well documented. The situation was predicted by the World Health Organisation and even gamed out in a scenario-planning exercise in the US under the Trump administration. In a widely shared TED Talk in 2015, Bill Gates made the point before carefully proceeding to outline what the world needed to do.

Those in policy circles will give you all kinds of knowing reasons why pandemic warnings went ignored: politics, “the problem is too big and expensive and complicated”, entrenched bureaucracies and so on and so forth. They’ll rub their chins to look thoughtful, but have no real answers. They are there to tell you how things are, not how to change them.

Pleading ignorance was particularly fashionable in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, when leaders became too eager to call out, “Black swan! Nobody could have seen it coming!” even though many elements of that crisis were predictable, too.

Bill Gates, shown here in Berlin in 2015, warned the world that year of the dangers of a potential pandemic. AFP
Bill Gates, shown here in Berlin in 2015, warned the world that year of the dangers of a potential pandemic. AFP

Together, these attitudes have bred complacency and an accountability vacuum that have made it easy for everyone to dodge responsibility. But that is an explanation, not an excuse.

Instead of focusing mainly on why problems are not readily solvable, our priority needs to be on what it takes, from governments and civil society, to head off grey rhinos.

The solution begins with a reset of expectations. This requires building mutual trust between citizens and governments, beginning with two-way transparency involving governments sharing much more information and citizens consuming and using that information responsibly.

The uncomfortable truth is that governments often fail to make tough choices because citizens don't want them to. People don't want short-term pain even if it prevents something much worse down the road. They want to feel secure now. This toxic status quo encourages governments to drag their feet in the face of wicked problems, which in turn leads citizens to lower their expectations of what leaders expect them to do.

The coronavirus pandemic and its domino effect – the most wicked of wicked problems – has upended reality. It has exposed many other thorny and unaddressed challenges. Extreme inequality that puts the greatest burden on those who can least afford it. Deep financial fragilities, including dangerous levels of debt. Inadequate healthcare infrastructure.

When governments try to sweep problems under the rug for too long, they increase the chances of catastrophe when the dam finally breaks. That is why, as painful as it may be, it is better for governments to be open about challenges sooner rather than later.

We shouldn't want to get "back to normal" because what we accepted as normal is what got us into this mess.

The coronavirus also illustrates the power of regularly and publicly monitoring progress. Daily releases of epidemiological statistics provide a natural experiment in measuring how governments are doing in the fight to save lives. In every country, these figures are imprecise; because of test shortages, inconsistencies in counting and other technical challenges, they far understate the reality. But they give everyone a way to measure progress.

Contrary to the conclusions of some observers, differences in effectiveness are independent of whether a country’s political system is democratic or not. Rather, they depend upon how transparent and proactive governments are, and how much their populations both trust them to solve the problem and play their own roles in doing so.

Tracking focuses attention on issues while clarifying solutions and reassuring people that progress is possible. If a situation seems hopeless, citizens are less likely to do their part to help fix it or to approve of leaders expending resources to do so.

Hopelessness and a lack of information, moreover, leave the door open for citizens to make up their own, alternate realities. Social media has allowed everyone to become instant epidemiologists, market sages, economists and one-size-fits-all critics. Tribes assemble, picking and choosing the information that suits them.

Protesters in the US, for instance, have been endangering themselves and others by demanding that the government loosen stay-at-home orders. They see themselves as preserving their “liberty” to work and to be entertained.

Choosing one’s own reality is a way of asserting control over a situation when people feel they have none, and little in recent memory has made so many people feel so powerless as the coronavirus and the economic destruction it has wrought.

The key to confronting crises like coronavirus is for governments to communicate better with their citizens. EPA
The key to confronting crises like coronavirus is for governments to communicate better with their citizens. EPA

Governments ought to recognise the benefits of being upfront about the nature of the problems they face, involving citizens in building solutions and then tracking their progress. Citizens, of course, must do their part, too. They ought to heed information and consume it responsibly, differentiating between what they need to hear and what they simply want to.

The rise of open-data projects and participatory budgeting have allowed governments to invite input from citizens more directly than ever before. Through these platforms, policymakers communicate the problem and the steps they are taking to fix it, then solicit feedback from citizen stakeholders. This can change citizens’ expectations of what can and should be done, making tough decisions easier.

Governments also are benefiting from comparing their own progress to that of their peers. Performance-tracking tools like Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index and the Programme for International Student Assessment (better known as PISA) all have helped to shape government policies for the better.

Similarly, the Sustainable Development Goals provide a powerful road map for tracking initiatives to address many of the grey rhino risks the world still faces: inequality, hunger, climate and 14 other worthy efforts.

There is one final benefit to these tools that ought to appeal to anyone in a position of power: they make it easier to give credit to leaders who work toward solutions to pressing policy problems, and hold accountable those who kick the crisis down the road.

Michele Wucker is a Chicago-based strategist and author of international bestseller The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Dangers We Ignore

RACE CARD

5pm: Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,400m
5.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh70,000 1,000m
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 2,000m
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 2,000m
7pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
7.30pm: Al Ain Mile Group 3 (PA) Dh350,000 1,600m
8pm: Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
 
Amith's selections:
5pm: AF Sail
5.30pm: Dahawi
6pm: Taajer
6.30pm: Pharitz Oubai
7pm: Winked
7.30pm: Shahm
8pm: Raniah

How to apply for a drone permit
  • Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
  • Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
  • Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
  • Submit their request
What are the regulations?
  • Fly it within visual line of sight
  • Never over populated areas
  • Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
  • Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
  • Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
  • Should have a live feed of the drone flight
  • Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
THE SPECS

      

 

Engine: 1.5-litre

 

Transmission: 6-speed automatic

 

Power: 110 horsepower 

 

Torque: 147Nm 

 

Price: From Dh59,700 

 

On sale: now  

 
The%20specs
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Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
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While you're here
And%20Just%20Like%20That...
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Various%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sarah%20Jessica%20Parker%2C%20Cynthia%20Nixon%2C%20Kristin%20Davis%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What sanctions would be reimposed?

Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:

  • An arms embargo
  • A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
  • A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
  • A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
  • Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

Essentials

The flights

Emirates and Etihad fly direct from the UAE to Geneva from Dh2,845 return, including taxes. The flight takes 6 hours. 

The package

Clinique La Prairie offers a variety of programmes. A six-night Master Detox costs from 14,900 Swiss francs (Dh57,655), including all food, accommodation and a set schedule of medical consultations and spa treatments.

What is a black hole?

1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull

2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight

3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge

4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own

5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed

Results

2-15pm: Commercial Bank Of Dubai – Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (Dirt) 1,400m; Winner: Al Habash, Patrick Cosgrave (jockey), Bhupat Seemar (trainer)

2.45pm: Al Shafar Investment – Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Day Approach, Ray Dawson, Ahmad bin Harmash

3.15pm: Dubai Real estate Centre – Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Celtic Prince, Richard Mullen, Rashed Bouresly

3.45pm: Jebel Ali Sprint by ARM Holding – Listed (TB) Dh500,000 (D) 1,000m; Winner: Khuzaam, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson

4.15pm: Shadwell – Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Tenbury Wells, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer

4.45pm: Jebel Ali Stakes by ARM Holding – Listed (TB) Dh500,000 (D) 1,950m; Winner: Lost Eden, Andrea Atzeni, Doug Watson

5.15pm: Jebel Ali Racecourse – Handicap (TB) Dh76,000 (D) 1,950m; Winner: Rougher, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson

FOOTBALL TEST

Team X 1 Team Y 0

Scorers

Red card

Man of the Match

 

HOW%20TO%20ACTIVATE%20THE%20GEMINI%20SHORTCUT%20ON%20CHROME%20CANARY
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BABYLON
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Damien%20Chazelle%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStars%3A%20Brad%20Pitt%2C%20Margot%20Robbie%2C%20Jean%20Smart%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Winners

Ballon d’Or (Men’s)
Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain / France)

Ballon d’Or Féminin (Women’s)
Aitana Bonmatí (Barcelona / Spain)

Kopa Trophy (Best player under 21 – Men’s)
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona / Spain)

Best Young Women’s Player
Vicky López (Barcelona / Spain)

Yashin Trophy (Best Goalkeeper – Men’s)
Gianluigi Donnarumma (Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City / Italy)

Best Women’s Goalkeeper
Hannah Hampton (England / Aston Villa and Chelsea)

Men’s Coach of the Year
Luis Enrique (Paris Saint-Germain)

Women’s Coach of the Year
Sarina Wiegman (England)

PLAY-OFF%20DRAW
%3Cp%3EBarcelona%20%20v%20Manchester%20United%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EJuventus%20v%20Nantes%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ESporting%20Lisbon%20v%20Midtjylland%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EShakhtar%20Donetsk%20v%20Rennes%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EAjax%20v%20Union%20Berlin%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EBayer%20Leverkusen%20v%20Monaco%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ESevilla%20v%20PSV%20Eindhoven%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ESalzburg%20v%20Roma%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULTS

6.30pm Handicap (TB) $68,000 (Dirt) 1,200m

Winner Canvassed, Par Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer)

7.05pm Meydan Cup – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (Turf) 2,810m

Winner Dubai Future, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor

7.40pm UAE 2000 Guineas – Group 3 (TB) $125,000 (D) 1,600m

Winner Mouheeb, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard

8.15pm Firebreak Stakes – Group 3 (TB) $130,000 (D) 1,600m

Winner Secret Ambition, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar

9.50pm Meydan Classic – Conditions (TB) $$50,000 (T) 1,400m

Winner Topper Bill, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar

9.25pm Dubai Sprint – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (T) 1,200m

Winner Man Of Promise, William Buick, Charlie Appleby

SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20Z%20FOLD5
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Huroob Ezterari

Director: Ahmed Moussa

Starring: Ahmed El Sakka, Amir Karara, Ghada Adel and Moustafa Mohammed

Three stars

Company%20profile
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Dolittle

Director: Stephen Gaghan

Stars: Robert Downey Jr, Michael Sheen

One-and-a-half out of five stars

The currency conundrum

Russ Mould, investment director at online trading platform AJ Bell, says almost every major currency has challenges right now. “The US has a huge budget deficit, the euro faces political friction and poor growth, sterling is bogged down by Brexit, China’s renminbi is hit by debt fears while slowing Chinese growth is hurting commodity exporters like Australia and Canada.”

Most countries now actively want a weak currency to make their exports more competitive. “China seems happy to let the renminbi drift lower, the Swiss are still running quantitative easing at full tilt and central bankers everywhere are actively talking down their currencies or offering only limited support," says Mr Mould.

This is a race to the bottom, and everybody wants to be a winner.

GAC GS8 Specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh149,900

Labour dispute

The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.


- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law 

Pharaoh's curse

British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.

VEZEETA PROFILE

Date started: 2012

Founder: Amir Barsoum

Based: Dubai, UAE

Sector: HealthTech / MedTech

Size: 300 employees

Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)

Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC

The five pillars of Islam

The British in India: Three Centuries of Ambition and Experience

by David Gilmour

Allen Lane

MATCH INFO

Qalandars 112-4 (10 ovs)

Banton 53 no

Northern Warriors 46 all out (9 ovs)

Kumara 3-10, Garton 3-10, Jordan 2-2, Prasanna 2-7

Qalandars win by six wickets

Graduated from the American University of Sharjah

She is the eldest of three brothers and two sisters

Has helped solve 15 cases of electric shocks

Enjoys travelling, reading and horse riding

 

if you go

The flights

Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes. 

The hotels

Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes. 

When to visit

March-May and September-November

Visas

Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.

COMPANY PROFILE

Name: Lamsa

Founder: Badr Ward

Launched: 2014

Employees: 60

Based: Abu Dhabi

Sector: EdTech

Funding to date: $15 million

Fixtures

Tuesday - 5.15pm: Team Lebanon v Alger Corsaires; 8.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Pharaohs

Wednesday - 5.15pm: Pharaohs v Carthage Eagles; 8.30pm: Alger Corsaires v Abu Dhabi Storms

Thursday - 4.30pm: Team Lebanon v Pharaohs; 7.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Carthage Eagles

Friday - 4.30pm: Pharaohs v Alger Corsaires; 7.30pm: Carthage Eagles v Team Lebanon

Saturday - 4.30pm: Carthage Eagles v Alger Corsaires; 7.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Team Lebanon

Jetour T1 specs

Engine: 2-litre turbocharged

Power: 254hp

Torque: 390Nm

Price: From Dh126,000

Available: Now

Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.