Since the killing of Abu Musab Al Zarqawi in 2006, the leaders of ISIL and of its previous incarnations have rarely made public appearances or statements. Throughout the past decade, only the current leader (though some say he was recently killed), Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi, has appeared in public. And he did so three years ago only because of the great necessity of being publicly known in order to claim the title of "caliph".
The last time he made an audio statement was in November, when he ordered members of his group to stand and fight in Mosul until the end, which they did before they were forced out of the symbolic stronghold after nearly nine months of brutal fighting. He did not do the same after the battle to liberate Raqqa, the second pillar of his so-called caliphate, began last month.
His silence today raises questions from his supporters and his enemies alike. ISIL has lost Mosul and is on its way to lose Raqqa. Al Baghdadi's silence surely adds to the confusion of the group’s supporters who are witnessing a crash from the highs of 2014. If there ever was an urgent time for Al Baghdadi to address his followers, one would think it is now.
His absence at such a critical moment has led to speculation about his death, his whereabouts and his relevance.
On Tuesday, General Stephen Townsend, the commander of Operation Inherent Resolve, touched on these themes in answer to a question about whether Al Baghdadi’s death matters. “It'd make me feel better to know that he was dead,” the general said. “I suppose it probably doesn't really matter.”
Gen Townsend is right. Al Baghdadi’s death may affect the morale of the group, and lift the morale of its enemies, but it would matter little. It would have minimal impact on the organisation. Indeed, his death before the full decline of the so-called caliphate he established might even turn him into a martyr in the eyes of his supporters.
ISIL has learned from past experience -- its own as well as that of other jihadist groups -- that leaders should be dispensable. Many armed groups in Syria, for example, weakened and died out slowly after the demise of their charismatic leaders. Since the elimination of Zarqawi in 2006 and later his successor, Abu Omar Al Baghdadi, alongside his deputy, Abu Ayyub Al Masri, in 2010, the group has sought to minimise the impact of such operations on the core of the organisation and its ability to survive.
The fate of ISIL does not depend on the survival of Al Baghdadi. In its own writings, the group suggested that a “charismatic” leadership could be manufactured to serve as the face of the organisation without the group depending on those leaders for its day-to-day operations.
After the death of Al Baghdadi, no successor needs to have the same religious and supposed family credentials -- as a PhD graduate in Islamic studies and purported descendant of Prophet Mohammad. For ISIL's supporters, Al Baghdadi established a caliphate and its legitimacy is forever tied to him, not on his successor. His lineage was cited to support the declaration of such a project, which could be continued under the leadership of any person as long as they can claim to be pious and capable leaders.
Thus, the death of Al Baghdadi before the complete collapse of the so-called caliphate could seal his legacy as a founder. He could be presented as the leader who brought the organisation back from the abyss in 2010, when it had been significantly weakened, to become a successful organisation that carved out one third of Iraq and half of Syria and arrogated to him the title of caliph.
If he dies after his group is completely defeated, that will damage his leadership and discredit his project. If he dies on that note, however, he could be just the ideal leader to present for future propaganda. Since its rise in 2014 and before, the group has focused on presenting its founders as visionaries and as capable leaders.
Al Baghdadi, with his religious credentials, is rare among jihadists. It will be difficult for ISIL to find a similar successor. His death would be regardless as another victory and a source of relief for the group’s enemies and victims. ISIL, however, could settle with less. It could replace him with someone with a lower profile, with minimal impact, if any, on its ability to function as an organisation.
For almost a year, the group has emphasised in its own publications that its new leaders have successfully taken over different roles in the organisation after the killing of many of its long-standing leaders since the US-led campaign began in the summer of 2014.
The takeover by new leaders, in the words of both ISIL and American officials, caused little disruption to the group’s ability to manage an expansive battlefield. Al Baghdadi’s demise will have a similarly negligible impact on ISIL.
Hassan Hassan is a senior fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy and co-author of ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
Notable Yas events in 2017/18
October 13-14 KartZone (complimentary trials)
December 14-16 The Gulf 12 Hours Endurance race
March 5 Yas Marina Circuit Karting Enduro event
March 8-9 UAE Rotax Max Challenge
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Zayed Sustainability Prize
FIXTURES
All kick-off times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday
Sevilla v Levante (midnight)
Saturday
Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad (7.15pm)
Eibar v Valencia (9.30pm)
Atletico Madrid v Alaves (11.45pm)
Sunday
Girona v Getafe (3pm)
Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7.15pm)
Las Palmas v Espanyol (9.30pm)
Barcelona v Deportivo la Coruna (11.45pm)
Monday
Malaga v Real Betis (midnight)
Read more about the coronavirus
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The view from The National
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl, 48V hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh289,000
New process leads to panic among jobseekers
As a UAE-based travel agent who processes tourist visas from the Philippines, Jennifer Pacia Gado is fielding a lot of calls from concerned travellers just now. And they are all asking the same question.
“My clients are mostly Filipinos, and they [all want to know] about good conduct certificates,” says the 34-year-old Filipina, who has lived in the UAE for five years.
Ms Gado contacted the Philippines Embassy to get more information on the certificate so she can share it with her clients. She says many are worried about the process and associated costs – which could be as high as Dh500 to obtain and attest a good conduct certificate from the Philippines for jobseekers already living in the UAE.
“They are worried about this because when they arrive here without the NBI [National Bureau of Investigation] clearance, it is a hassle because it takes time,” she says.
“They need to go first to the embassy to apply for the application of the NBI clearance. After that they have go to the police station [in the UAE] for the fingerprints. And then they will apply for the special power of attorney so that someone can finish the process in the Philippines. So it is a long process and more expensive if you are doing it from here.”
Off-roading in the UAE: How to checklist
ATP RANKINGS (NOVEMBER 4)
1. Rafael Nadal (ESP) 9,585 pts ( 1)
2. Novak Djokovic (SRB) 8,945 (-1)
3. Roger Federer (SUI) 6,190
4. Daniil Medvedev (RUS) 5,705
5. Dominic Thiem (AUT) 5,025
6. Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) 4,000 ( 1)
7. Alexander Zverev (GER) 2,945 (-1)
8. Matteo Berrettini (ITA) 2,670 ( 1)
9. Roberto Bautista (ESP) 2,540 ( 1)
10. Gaël Monfils (FRA) 2,530 ( 3)
11. David Goffin (BEL) 2,335 ( 3)
12. Fabio Fognini (ITA) 2,290
13. Kei Nishikori (JPN) 2,180 (-2)
14. Diego Schwartzman (ARG) 2,125 ( 1)
15. Denis Shapovalov (CAN) 2,050 ( 13)
16. Stan Wawrinka (SUI) 2,000
17. Karen Khachanov (RUS) 1,840 (-9)
18. Alex De Minaur (AUS) 1,775
19. John Isner (USA) 1,770 (-2)
20. Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) 1,747 ( 7)
Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
- September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
- October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
- October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
- November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
- December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
- February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Pieces of Her
Stars: Toni Collette, Bella Heathcote, David Wenham, Omari Hardwick
Director: Minkie Spiro
Rating:2/5
Film: In Syria
Dir: Philippe Van Leeuw
Starring: Hiam Abbass, Diamand Bo Abboud, Mohsen Abbas and Juliette Navis
Verdict: Four stars
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Springtime in a Broken Mirror,
Mario Benedetti, Penguin Modern Classics
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 650hp at 6,750rpm
Torque: 800Nm from 2,500-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 11.12L/100km
Price: From Dh796,600
On sale: now
Everton 1 Stoke City 0
Everton (Rooney 45 1')
Man of the Match Phil Jagielka (Everton)
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
Managing the separation process
- Choose your nursery carefully in the first place
- Relax – and hopefully your child will follow suit
- Inform the staff in advance of your child’s likes and dislikes.
- If you need some extra time to talk to the teachers, make an appointment a few days in advance, rather than attempting to chat on your child’s first day
- The longer you stay, the more upset your child will become. As difficult as it is, walk away. Say a proper goodbye and reassure your child that you will be back
- Be patient. Your child might love it one day and hate it the next
- Stick at it. Don’t give up after the first day or week. It takes time for children to settle into a new routine.And, finally, don’t feel guilty.
India squads
Test squad against Afghanistan: Rahane (c), Dhawan, Vijay, Rahul, Pujara, Karun, Saha, Ashwin, Jadeja, Kuldeep, Umesh, Shami, Pandya, Ishant, Thakur.
T20 squad against Ireland and England: Kohli (c), Dhawan, Rohit, Rahul, Raina, Pandey, Dhoni, Karthik, Chahal, Kuldeep, Sundar, Bhuvneshwar, Bumrah, Pandya, Kaul, Umesh.
ODI squad against England: Kohli (c), Dhawan, Rohit, Rahul, Shreyas, Rayudu, Dhoni, Karthik, Chahal, Kuldeep, Sundar, Bhuvneshwar, Bumrah, Pandya, Kaul, Umesh
IPL 2018 FINAL
Sunrisers Hyderabad 178-6 (20 ovs)
Chennai Super Kings 181-2 (18.3 ovs)
Chennai win by eight wickets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Blonde
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ELECTION%20RESULTS
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Ponti
Sharlene Teo, Pan Macmillan
Kandahar%20
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Result
Tottenhan Hotspur 2 Roma 3
Tottenham: Winks 87', Janssen 90 1'
Roma 3
D Perotti 13' (pen), C Under 70', M Tumminello 90 2"
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The%20specs%20
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Poacher
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The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
