Following Washington’s recognition of the opposition leader Juan Guaido’s claim to the interim presidency of Venezuela, I was asked for my analytical position on the embattled president Nicolas Maduro and the nation’s deepening political crisis. The “hot take” I provided was simply this: I don’t have a stance on a country that I haven’t spent substantial time in, and Spanish, which Venezuelans speak, is a language I don’t understand. I think that was a wholly appropriate response. Commentary without in-depth knowledge is, frankly, not something that should be encouraged. Alas, it is common in analysis of the Arab world and the wider Middle Eastern region.
Take Senator Rand Paul’s tweet on the Syrian conflict, which suggested that America should withdraw all its troops from the country. Mr Paul is of course entitled to advocate a non-interventionist approach for US forces – he is an American politician, after all. But the reasoning behind his conclusion was intellectually bankrupt. He proclaimed that Shiites and Sunnis had been “killing each other” since the Battle of Karbala in 680AD.
That comment contains errors that no serious first-year student of Islamic history could make. There was no reified version of the Sunni and Shiite communities of Muslims at Karbala – the split had not solidified into different groups. Moreover, both Sunni and Shiite historians describe the victims of the Karbala massacre as heroic martyrs – the vast majority of neither would ever place themselves in the position of defending the ruler of the time, whose forces carried out the massacre. As such, Mr Paul’s message offered a policy recommendation based on a complete misreading and misunderstanding of history.
This phenomenon is, unfortunately, pervasive when it comes to international affairs. The Iraq War of 2003, for example, was underpinned by analysis that misled politicians and opinion-formers, often issued by people who had spent no time in Iraq, nor spoke any of its languages. How, then, could they really understand much about the country, let alone the effects of an invasion of it? Had policy-makers listened only to those who did know the country, the invasion would likely not have taken place.
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Read more from HA Hellyer:
Why British imams don't always speak the same language as their followers
Religion is a force for moral good – we just need to be careful who we follow
Generation Identity: how far-right groups are tapping into a need to belong
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Many other such examples abound in our recent history and discussions of the Arab world. Talk of an “Islamic reformation” is just one. Many people to this day pontificate about the necessity for such an event – usually those who are virtually illiterate in the history of the European reformation, which was punctuated by great violence. Moreover, such analysis ignores that something similar to a reformation has already taken place in the Muslim community, and the result of it was the establishment of the Wahhabi movement. It is doubtful that they are urging the replication of such an effort – but if their recommendations were taken forward, that is the type of outcome that has historical precedent.
Years ago, I was at a conference at a well-known think tank in Washington DC. A presentation was given on Arab media and messaging by an American analyst. I walked up to him afterwards, and asked if he knew Arabic. He replied, “shwaya shwaya” – “little, little” – and yet, he felt empowered to offer opinions, in great detail, about a media ecosystem that depends on that language. Needless to say, his ideas were deeply flawed.
It should be clearly stated that in-depth knowledge is not a guarantee against bad choices. Today, there are many who know the language of the Arab world, who may even be from it, and yet lend their support to dictatorship and autocracy. Their reasoning is simple: that the people of the region are incapable and unworthy of anything akin to accountable and just government, and thus strongmen are the best option for stability. It is a pseudo-Orientalist argument, which denies the agency of Arabs, that was once deployed in support of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and is now heard from those who back Bashar Al Assad in present-day Syria. In both instances, it has led to untold suffering.
Yet, there can still be no comparison between those commentators who learn about the culture and language of a place, and those who do not. The former put vast amounts of time and resources into becoming intimately acquainted with the nuances of a country, a people and a religion. The latter are like drive-by shooters – aiming indiscriminately and scurrying away before the consequences of their actions can be seen.
My own country, the United Kingdom, is now undergoing its own crisis: the aftermath of the Brexit referendum. It would be troubling to rely on analysis of it by people who did not understand English, or had spent little to no time in the UK. Such figures would probably be – rightfully – ridiculed or ignored.
It is a curious and deeply disturbing reality that people of similar incompetence are frequently presented as experts on the Middle East. It should be pointed out, again and again that their ill-informed “hot takes” have real-life consequences that are seldom, if ever, beneficial for the people of this region.
Dr HA Hellyer is senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and the Atlantic Council
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
'Cheb%20Khaled'
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At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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PROFILE BOX:
Company/date started: 2015
Founder/CEO: Rami Salman, Rishav Jalan, Ayush Chordia
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Technology, Sales, Voice, Artificial Intelligence
Size: (employees/revenue) 10/ 100,000 downloads
Stage: 1 ($800,000)
Investors: Eight first-round investors including, Beco Capital, 500 Startups, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Hala Fadel, Odin Financial Services, Dubai Angel Investors, Womena, Arzan VC
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Other promotions
- Deliveroo will team up with Pineapple Express to offer customers near JLT a special treat: free banana caramel dessert with all orders on January 26
- Jones the Grocer will have their limited edition Australia Day menu available until the end of the month (January 31)
- Australian Vet in Abu Dhabi (with locations in Khalifa City A and Reem Island) will have a 15 per cent off all store items (excluding medications)
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Race card
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 (PA) US$100,000 (Dirt) 2,000m
7.05pm: Meydan Classic Listed (TB) $175,000 (Turf) 1,600m
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (D) 1,600m
8.50pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy Group 2 (TB) $300,000 (T) 2,810m
9.25pm: Curlin Stakes Listed (TB) $175,000 (D) 2,000m
10pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m
10.35pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m
The National selections
6.30pm: Shahm, 7.05pm: Well Of Wisdom, 7.40pm: Lucius Tiberius, 8.15pm: Captain Von Trapp, 8.50pm: Secret Advisor, 9.25pm: George Villiers, 10pm: American Graffiti, 10.35pm: On The Warpath
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Most F1 world titles
7 — Michael Schumacher (1994, ’95, 2000, ’01 ’02, ’03, ’04)
7 — Lewis Hamilton (2008, ’14,’15, ’17, ’18, ’19, ’20)
5 — Juan Manuel Fangio (1951, ’54, ’55, ’56, ’57)
4 — Alain Prost (1985, ’86, ’89, ’93)
4 — Sebastian Vettel (2010, ’11, ’12, ’13)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Company%20profile
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How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
