The crushing of ISIL in the Iraqi city of Mosul after nine months of intense fighting is a turning point, but history shows that it is dangerous to use the word victory. There have been many victories claimed by the United States in the Middle East that have turned out to be not the beginning of peace but the signal for the start of a new stage in the conflict.
At the end of the first Gulf War in 1991, when Iraqi troops were driven out of Kuwait, George H W Bush declared: “The war is over… It is a victory for the rule of law and for what is right”. In fact, the conflict over who rules Iraq merely moved through different phases, with regular outbursts of fighting ever since.
When the Iraqi prime minister, Haider Al Abadi, announced “total victory” in Mosul on Monday, it was an understandable response to the end of street-by-street combat against an enemy that was willing to shoot fleeing civilians in the back and send women and children to blow themselves up on the front line with Iraqi security forces.
But the question of what victory means hangs over the ruins of the city.
The good news is that the American military, once brimming with confidence about their power to create positive outcomes with armed force, has a new found wisdom. No posters proclaiming “mission accomplished” are being displayed by the Pentagon.
Instead, there is a downbeat assessment of the battle of Mosul’s likely effect on bringing peace and security to Iraq. Lt Gen Stephen Townsend, US commander of coalition forces in Iraq, called on all Iraqis not to allow the conditions that led to the rise of ISIL to recur. This victory, he said, will not eliminate ISIL “and there is still a tough fight ahead.”
These views come from the top. The bookish US defence secretary, Gen James Mattis, said in a rare interview this week: “I do not believe that military issues should lead in foreign policy. I think that’s where diplomats lead and the military then reinforces the diplomats.” America’s historic problem in fighting foreign wars was not lack of firepower but “figuring out what the political end state is.”
The desired end state for Iraq is clear: a state governed by the principle of “functioning federalism” under which provinces would have some control over the spending of the country’s oil wealth. For the Sunni Muslim minority, there is a demand for provincial-level National Guard units in western Iraq as a guarantee that ISIL fighters will not return. For many Iraqi Sunnis, ISIL is a champion against the Shia-dominated Iraqi security forces in case they return as sectarian death squads.
How likely is federalism to come about? Mr Al Abadi is a more consensual figure than his predecessor, Nouri Al Maliki, whose agenda was to entrench the Shia ascendancy. But he is not a powerful figure in himself, and unlikely to be able to push through the concessions to the Sunnis tribes that would give them a stake in modern Iraq, at a time when there is widespread suspicion that pro-ISIL sentiment is indelible in their ranks. If he had unlimited funds, he could do for Mosul what Vladimir Putin did for the city of Grozny, the Chechen capital flattened by the Russian armed forces. At a cost of billions of dollars, Mr Putin rebuilt it as a city of gleaming skyscrapers.
That is not going to happen in Iraq, which has signally failed to rebuild the other cities, such as Ramadi, from which ISIL has been driven out. And of course the extremists are still present in force in Tal Afar and many villages in western Iraq.
For Mr Al Abadi, the challenge is complicated by the fact that Iraq’s problems are not simply the Sunni-Shia divide. Apart from the many divisions inside the Sunni and Shia camps, there is the Kurdish question that is likely to flare up now that the uniting factor of the battle of Mosul has fallen away.
During the ISIL crisis the Kurdish forces took the contested oil city of Kirkuk. Inevitably Baghdad will want to regain control of it, a confrontation that would require a powerful outside force – such as the Americans -- to keep the two sides apart.
The Kurds, who already enjoy wide autonomy in northern Iraq, have raised the stakes by calling an independence referendum in September in defiance of strong opposition from the Baghdad government, Turkey and Iran. This vote may be no more than an attempt to create a false sense of unity among the rival Kurdish parties at a time of economic distress, but it contains the seeds of another war.
Will the US military want to stay and hold the ring between Arabs and Kurds? President Trump’s Iraq playbook focuses on counter-terrorism, rather than nation building so there must be a question mark. The US military would want to know that there is a realistic political end state before committing.
Ultimately Mr Al Abadi’s task is superhuman. He has to reverse the trend of radicalisation on both sides of the Sunni-Shia divide, where both camps feel a growing sense of victimhood and seek protection in the extremes, and moderate voices such as that of Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani, spiritual leader of Iraqi Shia, are drowned out.
When Mr Al Sistani called for a popular mobilisation against ISIL three years ago, he envisaged a nation in arms. He did not intend to endorse the rise of sectarian militias under Iranian control, but that is what took shape. These militias now believe they won the battle of Mosul and want to reap the political rewards.
History does not have to repeat itself but the least one can say is that the environment in Iraq and in the wider Middle East and the mood in Washington suggest that genuine victory is still some way off.
Essentials
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Delhi from about Dh950 return including taxes.
The hotels
Double rooms at Tijara Fort-Palace cost from 6,670 rupees (Dh377), including breakfast.
Doubles at Fort Bishangarh cost from 29,030 rupees (Dh1,641), including breakfast. Doubles at Narendra Bhawan cost from 15,360 rupees (Dh869). Doubles at Chanoud Garh cost from 19,840 rupees (Dh1,122), full board. Doubles at Fort Begu cost from 10,000 rupees (Dh565), including breakfast.
The tours
Amar Grover travelled with Wild Frontiers. A tailor-made, nine-day itinerary via New Delhi, with one night in Tijara and two nights in each of the remaining properties, including car/driver, costs from £1,445 (Dh6,968) per person.
The biog
Birthday: February 22, 1956
Born: Madahha near Chittagong, Bangladesh
Arrived in UAE: 1978
Exercise: At least one hour a day on the Corniche, from 5.30-6am and 7pm to 8pm.
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi? “Everywhere. Wherever you go, you can relax.”
What is graphene?
Graphene is extracted from graphite and is made up of pure carbon.
It is 200 times more resistant than steel and five times lighter than aluminum.
It conducts electricity better than any other material at room temperature.
It is thought that graphene could boost the useful life of batteries by 10 per cent.
Graphene can also detect cancer cells in the early stages of the disease.
The material was first discovered when Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov were 'playing' with graphite at the University of Manchester in 2004.
Various Artists
Habibi Funk: An Eclectic Selection Of Music From The Arab World (Habibi Funk)
The%20Roundup
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Lee%20Sang-yong%3Cbr%3EStars%3A%20Ma%20Dong-seok%2C%20Sukku%20Son%2C%20Choi%20Gwi-hwa%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ODI FIXTURE SCHEDULE
First ODI, October 22
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Second ODI, October 25
Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Pune
Third ODI, October 29
Venue TBC
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
Fire and Fury
By Michael Wolff,
Henry Holt
Results
Men's finals
45kg:Duc Le Hoang (VIE) beat Zolfi Amirhossein (IRI) points 29-28. 48kg: Naruephon Chittra (THA) beat Joseph Vanlalhruaia (IND) TKO round 2.
51kg: Sakchai Chamchit (THA) beat Salam Al Suwaid (IRQ) TKO round 1. 54kg: Veerasak Senanue (THA) beat Huynh Hoang Phi (VIE) 30-25.
57kg: Almaz Sarsembekov (KAZ) beat Tak Chuen Suen (MAC) RSC round 3. 60kg: Yerkanat Ospan (KAZ) beat Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) 30-27.
63.5kg: Abil Galiyev (KAZ) beat Nouredine Samir (UAE) 29-28. 67kg: Narin Wonglakhon (THA) beat Mohammed Mardi (UAE) 29-28.
71kg: Amine El Moatassime (UAE) w/o Shaker Al Tekreeti (IRQ). 75kg: Youssef Abboud (LBN) w/o Ayoob Saki (IRI).
81kg: Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Khaled Tarraf (LBN) 29-28. 86kg: Ali Takaloo (IRI) beat Emil Umayev (KAZ) 30-27.
91kg: Hamid Reza Kordabadi (IRI) beat Mohamad Osaily (LBN) RSC round 1. 91-plus kg: Mohammadrezapoor Shirmohammad (IRI) beat Abdulla Hasan (IRQ) 30-27.
Women's finals
45kg: Somruethai Siripathum (THA) beat Ha Huu Huynh (VIE) 30-27. 48kg: Thanawan Thongduang (THA) beat Colleen Saddi (PHI) 30-27.
51kg: Wansawang Srila Or (THA) beat Thuy Phuong Trieu (VIE) 29-28. 54kg: Ruchira Wongsriwo (THA) beat Zeinab Khatoun (LBN) 30-26.
57kg: Sara Idriss (LBN) beat Zahra Nasiri Bargh (IRI) 30-27. 60kg: Kaewrudee Kamtakrapoom (THA) beat Sedigheh Hajivand (IRI) TKO round 2.
63.5kg: Nadiya Moghaddam (IRI) w/o Reem Al Issa (JOR).
No Shame
Lily Allen
(Parlophone)
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
Tuesday's fixtures
Kyrgyzstan v Qatar, 5.45pm
Simran
Director Hansal Mehta
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Soham Shah, Esha Tiwari Pandey
Three stars
Company: Instabug
Founded: 2013
Based: Egypt, Cairo
Sector: IT
Employees: 100
Stage: Series A
Investors: Flat6Labs, Accel, Y Combinator and angel investors
BRAZIL%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3EGoalkeepers%3A%20Alisson%2C%20Ederson%2C%20Weverton%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EDefenders%3A%20Dani%20Alves%2C%20Marquinhos%2C%20Thiago%20Silva%2C%20Eder%20Militao%20%2C%20Danilo%2C%20Alex%20Sandro%2C%20Alex%20Telles%2C%20Bremer.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EMidfielders%3A%20Casemiro%2C%20Fred%2C%20Fabinho%2C%20Bruno%20Guimaraes%2C%20Lucas%20Paqueta%2C%20Everton%20Ribeiro.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EForwards%3A%20Neymar%2C%20Vinicius%20Junior%2C%20Richarlison%2C%20Raphinha%2C%20Antony%2C%20Gabriel%20Jesus%2C%20Gabriel%20Martinelli%2C%20Pedro%2C%20Rodrygo%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
LUKA CHUPPI
Director: Laxman Utekar
Producer: Maddock Films, Jio Cinema
Cast: Kartik Aaryan, Kriti Sanon, Pankaj Tripathi, Vinay Pathak, Aparshakti Khurana
Rating: 3/5
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Switch%20Foods%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Edward%20Hamod%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Plant-based%20meat%20production%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2034%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%246.5%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20round%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Based%20in%20US%20and%20across%20Middle%20East%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
