The attacks in Paris and Beirut last week make one think of Barack Obama’s remarks in an interview with George Stephanopoulos in September 2013. Asked about American intentions in Syria, Mr Obama responded “the United States can’t get in the middle of somebody else’s civil war”.
The president may regret his words, because Syria is many things, but it certainly is no longer just “somebody else’s civil war”. Had Mr Obama been better advised, he would have realised that Syria is not a country easily pushed to the bottom of the pile. And with the Al Assad regime fighting for survival, this was even less likely after the uprising began in 2011.
However, this was no secret. In an influential book published in the 1960s called The Struggle for Syria, the British journalist Patrick Seale described how Syria was a centrepiece of the regional struggle for power between Gamal Abdel Nasser’s Egypt and the Hashemite regime in Iraq and its successors. Located at the nexus between the Gulf, Israel, North Africa and Turkey, Syria played a role far beyond its relative strength.
The former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger once remarked: “You can’t make war in the Middle East without Egypt and you can’t make peace without Syria.”
This was implicit recognition of the capacity of the Syrian regime to be a spoiler, given its geographical position and the many regional levers it controlled allowing it to protect its interests.
Mr Obama would have benefited from similar insight when the Syrian war started. Instead, the president’s advisors were entirely focused on avoiding another American military venture in the Middle East. They failed to grasp that the Syrian breakdown, and the chaos it engendered, would impose itself on America, as it has on the Arab world, Europe and Russia.
We may have the benefit of hindsight today, but there was plenty of evidence early on that Bashar Al Assad, in his brutal repression of dissent and his willingness to provoke a civil war to stay in power, was working according to a template adopted by other Arab dictators, notably Muammar Qaddafi.
Nor could American officials have been unfamiliar with a revealing incident that occurred in April 2007, when the United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, visited Damascus. At the time the UN was preparing to establish a tribunal, under Chapter VII authority, to try suspects in the assassination of the former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
Mr Assad, wary that this might uncover the Syrian regime’s involvement in the crime, issued an implicit threat. In an account leaked to Le Monde, he was quoted as saying that the tribunal “might easily cause a conflict that would degenerate into civil war, provoking divisions between Sunnis and Shiites from the Mediterranean to the Caspian Sea”.
This pattern of survival through destruction was always an essential reflex of Arab despots, and should have preoccupied the Obama administration. The Syrian regime’s initial strengthening of jihadist groups, by releasing extremists from prison, buying petroleum from ISIL or avoiding bombing jihadist targets was central to efforts to represent itself as a more acceptable alternative after the uprising began in 2011.
Within the past year the Obama administration has radically changed in its approach to ISIL. After the fall of Mosul, the Americans were largely fixated on Iraq not Syria. Today, the focus has shifted to Syria. It took a year for Washington to recognise what was evident to most observers then, namely that Syria was the source of regional instability and terrorism.
Mr Obama has finally come around to accepting that an impetus for ISIL recruitment is the continued presence of Mr Al Assad in power. That is why the United States today insists he must leave office. However, absent military intervention on the ground or a neutralisation of Russian efforts to target the only groups that stand against ISIL, Washington’s efforts will advance slowly.
Both actions are risky and almost certain not to be adopted. However, Mr Obama would do well to engage in a review of his administration’s decisions on Syria, indeed his own decisions. From the start there was a refusal of the administration to appreciate the dangers in allowing the war in Syria to spin out of control and adopting a minimalist approach toward it.
Beyond covert operations, a key role of the intelligence services is to analyse and forecast political events.
So why should the administration’s unwillingness to appreciate the risks in Syria be less of a scandal than flawed intelligence?
The answer is that the White House very likely rejected all information that might have made involvement in Syria more likely, at a time when its priority was to “pivot” away from the Middle East.
Syria will remain a cautionary tale for future American administrations. Ignoring some problems in the world only leads to greater problems. Mr Obama may be adapting, but it’s too late. The Syrian genie is out of the bottle and it will take a great deal of pain to put it back in.
Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star in Beirut
On Twitter: @BeirutCalling
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The specs: 2017 Dodge Viper SRT
Price, base / as tested Dh460,000
Engine 8.4L V10
Transmission Six-speed manual
Power 645hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 813Nm @ 5,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 16.8L / 100km
Results
2pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m; Winner: AF Al Baher, Bernardo Pinheiro (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
2.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 1,600m; Winner: Talento Puma, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer.
3pm: Handicap (TB) Dh90,000 1,950m; Winner: Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
3.30pm: Jebel Ali Stakes Listed (TB) Dh500,000 1,950m; Winner: Mark Of Approval, Patrick Cosgrave, Mahmood Hussain.
4pm: Conditions (TB) Dh125,000 1,400m; Winner: Dead-heat Raakez, Jim Crowley, Nicholas Bachalard/Attribution, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer.
4.30pm: Jebel Ali Sprint (TB) Dh500,000 1,000m; Winner: AlKaraama, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi.
5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 1,200m; Winner: Wafy, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
5.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh90,000 1,400m; Winner: Cachao, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
TOURNAMENT INFO
Women’s World Twenty20 Qualifier
Jul 3- 14, in the Netherlands
The top two teams will qualify to play at the World T20 in the West Indies in November
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (captain), Chamani Seneviratne, Subha Srinivasan, Neha Sharma, Kavisha Kumari, Judit Cleetus, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Heena Hotchandani, Namita D’Souza, Ishani Senevirathne, Esha Oza, Nisha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Name: Peter Dicce
Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics
Favourite sport: soccer
Favourite team: Bayern Munich
Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer
Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates
RACE CARD
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 – Group 1 (PA) $65,000 (Dirt) 2,000m
7.05pm: Handicap (TB) $65,000 (Turf) 1,800m
7.40pm: Meydan Classic – Listed (TB) $88,000 (T) 1,600m
8.15pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy – Group 3 (TB) $195,000 (T) 2,810m
8.50pm: Dubai Millennium Stakes – Group 3 (TB) $130,000 (T) 2,000m
9.25pm: Meydan Challenge – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (T) 1,400m
'Outclassed in Kuwait'
Taleb Alrefai,
HBKU Press
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Sheikh Zayed's poem
When it is unveiled at Abu Dhabi Art, the Standing Tall exhibition will appear as an interplay of poetry and art. The 100 scarves are 100 fragments surrounding five, figurative, female sculptures, and both sculptures and scarves are hand-embroidered by a group of refugee women artisans, who used the Palestinian cross-stitch embroidery art of tatreez. Fragments of Sheikh Zayed’s poem Your Love is Ruling My Heart, written in Arabic as a love poem to his nation, are embroidered onto both the sculptures and the scarves. Here is the English translation.
Your love is ruling over my heart
Your love is ruling over my heart, even a mountain can’t bear all of it
Woe for my heart of such a love, if it befell it and made it its home
You came on me like a gleaming sun, you are the cure for my soul of its sickness
Be lenient on me, oh tender one, and have mercy on who because of you is in ruins
You are like the Ajeed Al-reem [leader of the gazelle herd] for my country, the source of all of its knowledge
You waddle even when you stand still, with feet white like the blooming of the dates of the palm
Oh, who wishes to deprive me of sleep, the night has ended and I still have not seen you
You are the cure for my sickness and my support, you dried my throat up let me go and damp it
Help me, oh children of mine, for in his love my life will pass me by.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Off-roading in the UAE: How to checklist
