Whenever they appear, black swans are always unsettling. As defined by the Lebanese-American author Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans are unexpected, hard-to-predict events that don’t fit the understood flow of history. In just the last week, there have been three.
In Turkey, the first attempted military coup for two decades was crushed. In France, a young man not on the radar of the intelligence services drove a truck through a Bastille Day crowd. In Britain, a little-known prime minister strode into office 14 days after declaring she would stand and three weeks after Britons voted to leave the European Union.
Individually, these events are shocking and surprising. Taken together, they contribute to a sense that the established order is quaking, that the expected flow of history can no longer be expected. These are unusual, unsettling days in global politics.
Yet these events are all linked. They are not happening in isolation but as a result of political stresses. They are happening more frequently because long-term stresses are coming together at weak points. The reasons for them are not easy to resolve and will be with us for many years to come.
Start with the Turkey coup. Although the actual coup came out of internal issues, the political climate was affected by the wider context of the Syrian civil war and the Kurdish bid for autonomy.
That civil war was itself affected both by climate change and political events in the wider Middle East. Those political events, the Arab Spring, were themselves affected by the global financial crisis. None of these events occurred in isolation.
The same is true for what happened in Nice. There is a direct link with the rise of ISIL in Syria, of course, but that rise was facilitated by the collapse of two states, Syria and Iraq, and the rise of a transnational, virulent form of violent jihad.
In Britain, the effect of the 2008 financial crisis and the perception of a refugee crisis from Syria brought about a momentum that resulted in Britain taking its most serious and significant decision since the Second World War.
If it seems Syria is the only linchpin and that without the Syrian revolution none of these political stresses would have existed, well, that is only an illusion.
By an accident of geography and history, Syria was the state most vulnerable to a collapse. It wasn't more affected by climate change than others, nor was the political order more rigid or more likely to provoke an uprising, nor again were its people more susceptible to an insurgency. Rather, at that moment, it was the weak spot where many long-term events collided.
To see this more clearly, think of the analogy with coastal erosion. Long term stresses on all parts of the coastline – the effect of waves and weather, the stresses of traffic and development – come together at particular points and lead parts of the cliff to collapse. The collapse takes with it nearby parts of the cliff and weakens a much wider area. Before the collapse happens, however, it can be hard to see where the weak points are.
As true as that was for Syria – and history has given us the rare example of an experiment, because there were four other Arab Spring revolutions – it is also true for Turkey, France and Britain.
Yes, Turkey has been disproportionately stressed by the Syrian refugee crisis, but so has Lebanon. France has been disproportionately affected by ISIL attacks, but, while more French citizens have joined ISIL than elsewhere in Europe, it is not the largest contributor by population. Yes, the UK has always had an uneasy relationship with the European Union, but so has Greece.
The mistake would be to see these problems as discrete rather than interconnected. Politicians, in particular, seek to compartmentalise problems in their own countries, because it makes it easier to explain to an electorate and suggests a measure of control.
But these stresses are far more prevalent. Today it is Turkey, tomorrow it could be Greece or Lebanon. The effect of the Syrian civil war, to take just one example, is a real and powerful political stressor on all the countries of the Middle East and Europe. Its effect is incalculable, and will rear its head in unexpected ways, as it has in Turkey.
The way out is long. Political stresses on the scale of the Syrian civil war or transnational jihad or climate change can be overcome or their effects ameliorated. But doing so requires a recognition of the scale of the task and an awareness that in an interconnected world, events cannot be constrained by borders.
The shock waves from a collapsing Syria have reached every part of Europe and the Middle East. With judicious politics and diplomacy – and even the use of force – the war itself can be resolved. If not, then as with climate change, as with the financial crisis, as with the erosion of every piece of coast that faces an ocean, the consequences of the Syrian war cannot be contained.
falyafai@thenational.ae
On Twitter: @FaisalAlYafai
Premier League results
Saturday
Tottenham Hotspur 1 Arsenal 1
Bournemouth 0 Manchester City 1
Brighton & Hove Albion 1 Huddersfield Town 0
Burnley 1 Crystal Palace 3
Manchester United 3 Southampton 2
Wolverhampton Wanderers 2 Cardiff City 0
West Ham United 2 Newcastle United 0
Sunday
Watford 2 Leicester City 1
Fulham 1 Chelsea 2
Everton 0 Liverpool 0
What is the definition of an SME?
SMEs in the UAE are defined by the number of employees, annual turnover and sector. For example, a “small company” in the services industry has six to 50 employees with a turnover of more than Dh2 million up to Dh20m, while in the manufacturing industry the requirements are 10 to 100 employees with a turnover of more than Dh3m up to Dh50m, according to Dubai SME, an agency of the Department of Economic Development.
A “medium-sized company” can either have staff of 51 to 200 employees or 101 to 250 employees, and a turnover less than or equal to Dh200m or Dh250m, again depending on whether the business is in the trading, manufacturing or services sectors.
if you go
The flights
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
Four motivational quotes from Alicia's Dubai talk
“The only thing we need is to know that we have faith. Faith and hope in our own dreams. The belief that, when we keep going we’re going to find our way. That’s all we got.”
“Sometimes we try so hard to keep things inside. We try so hard to pretend it’s not really bothering us. In some ways, that hurts us more. You don’t realise how dishonest you are with yourself sometimes, but I realised that if I spoke it, I could let it go.”
“One good thing is to know you’re not the only one going through it. You’re not the only one trying to find your way, trying to find yourself, trying to find amazing energy, trying to find a light. Show all of yourself. Show every nuance. All of your magic. All of your colours. Be true to that. You can be unafraid.”
“It’s time to stop holding back. It’s time to do it on your terms. It’s time to shine in the most unbelievable way. It’s time to let go of negativity and find your tribe, find those people that lift you up, because everybody else is just in your way.”
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Results
1.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner Al Suhooj, Saif Al Balushi (jockey), Khalifa Al Neyadi (trainer)
2pm Handicap (TB) 68,000 (D) 1,950m
Winner Miracle Maker, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer
2.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Mazagran, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
3pm Handicap (TB) Dh84,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
3.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh76,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner Alla Mahlak, Adrie de Vries, Rashed Bouresly
4pm Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner Hurry Up, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
4.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh68,000 (D) 1,200m
Uefa Champions League play-off
First leg: Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Ajax v Dynamo Kiev
Second leg: Tuesday, August 28, 11pm (UAE)
Dynamo Kiev v Ajax
Teams in the EHL
White Bears, Al Ain Theebs, Dubai Mighty Camels, Abu Dhabi Storms, Abu Dhabi Scorpions and Vipers
England squad
Joe Root (captain), Alastair Cook, Keaton Jennings, Gary Ballance, Jonny Bairstow (wicketkeeper), Ben Stokes (vice-captain), Moeen Ali, Liam Dawson, Toby Roland-Jones, Stuart Broad, Mark Wood, James Anderson.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League last 16, first leg
Liverpool v Bayern Munich, midnight, Wednesday, BeIN Sports
Team Angel Wolf Beach Blast takes place every Wednesday between 4:30pm and 5:30pm
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
The specs: 2018 Mazda CX-5
Price, base / as tested: Dh89,000 / Dh130,000
Engine: 2.5-litre four-cylinder
Power: 188hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 251Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.1L / 100km
MAIN CARD
Bantamweight 56.4kg
Abrorbek Madiminbekov v Mehdi El Jamari
Super heavyweight 94 kg
Adnan Mohammad v Mohammed Ajaraam
Lightweight 60kg
Zakaria Eljamari v Faridoon Alik Zai
Light heavyweight 81.4kg
Mahmood Amin v Taha Marrouni
Light welterweight 64.5kg
Siyovush Gulmamadov v Nouredine Samir
Light heavyweight 81.4kg
Ilyass Habibali v Haroun Baka
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
AWARDS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBest%20Male%20black%20belt%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELucas%20Protasio%20(BRA)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBest%20female%20black%20belt%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJulia%20Alves%20(BRA)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBest%20Masters%20black%20belt%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Igor%20Silva%20(BRA)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBest%20Asian%20Jiu-Jitsu%20Federation%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kazakhstan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBest%20Academy%20in%20UAE%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECommando%20Group%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBest%20International%20Academy%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Commando%20Group%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAfrican%20Player%20of%20the%20Year%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKatiuscia%20Yasmira%20Dias%20(GNB)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOceanian%20Player%20of%20the%20Year%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAnton%20Minenko%20(AUS)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EEuropean%20Player%20of%20the%20Year%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rose%20El%20Sharouni%20(NED)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENorth%20and%20Central%20American%20Player%20of%20the%20Year%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlexa%20Yanes%20(USA)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAsian%20Player%20of%20the%20Year%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EZayed%20Al%20Katheeri%20(UAE)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERookie%20of%20the%20Year%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rui%20Neto%20(BRA)Rui%20Neto%20(BRA)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ramy%3A%20Season%203%2C%20Episode%201
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreators%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAri%20Katcher%2C%20Ryan%20Welch%2C%20Ramy%20Youssef%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERamy%20Youssef%2C%20Amr%20Waked%2C%20Mohammed%20Amer%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
Day 1 results:
Open Men (bonus points in brackets)
New Zealand 125 (1) beat UAE 111 (3)
India 111 (4) beat Singapore 75 (0)
South Africa 66 (2) beat Sri Lanka 57 (2)
Australia 126 (4) beat Malaysia -16 (0)
Open Women
New Zealand 64 (2) beat South Africa 57 (2)
England 69 (3) beat UAE 63 (1)
Australia 124 (4) beat UAE 23 (0)
New Zealand 74 (2) beat England 55 (2)
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
TEAMS
US Team
Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth
Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger
Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler
Kevin Kisner, Patrick Reed
Matt Kuchar, Kevin Chappell
Charley Hoffman*, Phil Mickelson*
International Team
Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day
Adam Scott, Louis Oosthuizen
Marc Leishman, Charl Schwartzel
Branden Grace, Si Woo Kim
Jhonattan Vegas, Adam Hadwin
Emiliano Grillo*, Anirban Lahiri*
* denotes captain's picks
Grand Slam Los Angeles results
Men:
56kg – Jorge Nakamura
62kg – Joao Gabriel de Sousa
69kg – Gianni Grippo
77kg – Caio Soares
85kg – Manuel Ribamar
94kg – Gustavo Batista
110kg – Erberth Santos
Women:
49kg – Mayssa Bastos
55kg – Nathalie Ribeiro
62kg – Gabrielle McComb
70kg – Thamara Silva
90kg – Gabrieli Pessanha
TICKETS
Tickets start at Dh100 for adults, while children can enter free on the opening day. For more information, visit www.mubadalawtc.com.
The biog
Favourite colour: Brown
Favourite Movie: Resident Evil
Hobbies: Painting, Cooking, Imitating Voices
Favourite food: Pizza
Trivia: Was the voice of three characters in the Emirati animation, Shaabiyat Al Cartoon
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Company Profile
Name: JustClean
Based: Kuwait with offices in other GCC countries
Launch year: 2016
Number of employees: 130
Sector: online laundry service
Funding: $12.9m from Kuwait-based Faith Capital Holding
The biog
Favourite book: Men are from Mars Women are from Venus
Favourite travel destination: Ooty, a hill station in South India
Hobbies: Cooking. Biryani, pepper crab are her signature dishes
Favourite place in UAE: Marjan Island
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
LIVERPOOL SQUAD
Alisson Becker, Virgil van Dijk, Georginio Wijnaldum, James Milner, Naby Keita, Roberto Firmino, Sadio Mane, Mohamed Salah, Joe Gomez, Adrian, Jordan Henderson, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Adam Lallana, Andy Lonergan, Xherdan Shaqiri, Andy Robertson, Divock Origi, Curtis Jones, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Neco Williams
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
FIXTURES
All kick-off times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Brackets denote aggregate score
Tuesday:
Roma (1) v Shakhtar Donetsk (2), 11.45pm
Manchester United (0) v Sevilla (0), 11.45pm
Wednesday:
Besiktas (0) v Bayern Munich (5), 9pm
Barcelona (1) v Chelsea (1), 11.45pm
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The bio
Job: Coder, website designer and chief executive, Trinet solutions
School: Year 8 pupil at Elite English School in Abu Hail, Deira
Role Models: Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk
Dream City: San Francisco
Hometown: Dubai
City of birth: Thiruvilla, Kerala
Abu Dhabi Card
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 80,000 1,400m
National selection: AF Mohanak
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 90,000 1,400m
National selection: Jayide Al Boraq
6pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 100,000 1,400m
National selection: Rocket Power
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Championship Listed (PA) Dh 180,000 1,600m
National selection: Ihtesham
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 1,600m
National selection: Noof KB
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 80,000 2.200m
National selection: EL Faust
Racecard
6pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 Group 1 (PA) $55,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
6.35pm: Oud Metha Stakes Rated Conditions (TB) $60,000 (D) 1,200m
7.10pm: Jumeirah Classic Listed (TB) $150,000 (Turf) 1,600m
7.45pm: Firebreak Stakes Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,600m
8.20pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 Group 2 (TB) $350,000 (D) 1,900m
8.55pm: Al Bastakiya Trial Conditions (TB) $60,000 (D) 1,900m
9.30pm: Balanchine Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,800m
RESULTS
1.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,200m
Winner: Lady Parma, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
2.15pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,200m
Winner: Tabernas, Connor Beasley, Ahmed bin Harmash.
2.45pm: Handicap Dh95,000 1,200m
Winner: Night Castle, Connor Beasley, Satish Seemar.
3.15pm: Handicap Dh120,000 1,400m
Winner: Mystique Moon, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson.
3.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Mutawakked, Szczepan Mazur, Musabah Al Muhairi.
4.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,800m
Winner: Tafaakhor, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
4.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,950m
Winner: Cranesbill, Fabrice Veron, Erwan Charpy.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
GULF MEN'S LEAGUE
Pool A Dubai Hurricanes, Bahrain, Dubai Exiles, Dubai Tigers 2
Pool B Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Jebel Ali Dragons, Dubai Knights Eagles, Dubai Tigers
Opening fixtures
Thursday, December 5
6.40pm, Pitch 8, Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Dubai Knights Eagles
7pm, Pitch 2, Jebel Ali Dragons v Dubai Tigers
7pm, Pitch 4, Dubai Hurricanes v Dubai Exiles
7pm, Pitch 5, Bahrain v Dubai Eagles 2
Recent winners
2018 Dubai Hurricanes
2017 Dubai Exiles
2016 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
2015 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
2014 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
RACE CARD
5pm: Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan Racing Festival Purebred Arabian Cup Conditions (PA); Dh 200,000 (Turf) 1,600m
5.30pm: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak Cup Conditions (PA); Dh 200,000 (T) 1,600m
6pm: Sheikh Sultan bin Zayed Al Nahyan National Day Cup Listed (TB); Dh 380,000 (T) 1,600m
6.30pm: Sheikh Sultan bin Zayed Al Nahyan National Day Group 3 (PA); Dh 500,000 (T) 1,600m
7pm: Sheikh Sultan bin Zayed Al Nahyan National Day Jewel Crown Group 1 (PA); Dh 5,000,000 (T) 2,200m
7.30pm: Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan Racing Festival Handicap (PA); Dh 150,000 (T) 1,400m
8pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 100,000 (T); 1,400m
The biog
Favourite book: You Are the Placebo – Making your mind matter, by Dr Joe Dispenza
Hobby: Running and watching Welsh rugby
Travel destination: Cyprus in the summer
Life goals: To be an aspirational and passionate University educator, enjoy life, be healthy and be the best dad possible.
