Rouhani is out of step with ordinary Iranians

In the lead-up to Iran’s presidential election, on May 19, a poll shows that the Iranian people are not happy with either their economic situation or their government’s priorities and performance.

The Zogby Research Services (ZRS) poll was conducted in the last quarter of 2016 for the Sir Bani Yas Forum (SBY) and involved face-to-face interviews with over 1,000 Iranians nationwide. The results of the survey established growing dissatisfaction among Iranians and are in marked contrast to the findings of the 2014 and 2015 SBY surveys of public opinion in Iran.

After the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal with the P5+1 powers in April 2015, Iranians had high expectations their lives would improve. When ZRS polled Iranians in September that year, we found that they wanted a shift in their government’s priorities with more attention paid to improving their economic and political situation and their country’s relationships with the West and with their Arab neighbours. At least three-quarters said that investing in improving the economy and creating employment (81 per cent) and advancing democracy and protecting personal and civil rights (75 per cent) were the most important priorities.

Iranians also said that they wanted their government to focus on improving relations with Arab governments (60 per cent) and with the United States and the West (59 per cent). Way down on their list of priorities was support for their government’s continuing involvement in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.

When Iranians were asked in the 2016 survey to rate their satisfaction with the government's performance in each of these areas, their displeasure comes through quite clearly. Fifty-one per cent gave their government a passing grade for investing in improving the economy and creating employment – the only policy area to receive a passing grade. More than 70 per cent were dissatisfied with efforts to advance democracy and protect personal and civil rights. Hope for improvement in relations with the West and Arab neighbours also fared poorly, with 65 per cent of Iranians saying they were dissatisfied with the progress their government had made in improving relations with Arab governments and 85 per cent displeased with the efforts to improve ties with the US and the West.

The latest SBY poll also establishes that more than one half (53 per cent) of Iranians are dissatisfied that their government is still providing support for allies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Because we have been polling since 2014 on the importance Iranians attach to each of these foreign involvements, comparing responses over that time period reveals a sharp decline in support for all of them.

In 2015, 90 per cent of Iranians saw it as important for their government to be involved in Syria. That dropped to 73 per cent in 2015 and only 24 per cent this year. In other words, over three-quarters of Iranians do not believe that it is important for their government to continue to be involved in Syria. The same disenchantment can be seen with declining support for involvement in other foreign countries. For involvement in Iraq it was 87 per cent in 2014, 64 per cent in 2015 and 47 per cent in 2016; in Lebanon it went from 88 per cent in 2014 to 43 per cent in 2016; and, for Yemen, from 62 per cent to 29 per cent.

It appears that while Iranians once took pride in the government’s aggressive foreign policy, they have grown war-weary and want new priorities.

Last month, the problems facing the government of president Hassan Rouhani became even clearer as Iran's central bank released 2016 government revenue and expense data. It was not a pretty picture. Despite the lifting of some of the economic sanctions that followed the nuclear deal, the government’s projected rise in revenues did not materialise – owing in part to declining oil prices and a sluggish economy. At the same time, expenditures increased, making the 2016 deficit larger than the previous two years. Debt grew for both the government and the private sector making it more difficult for either to make needed increased investments in development and infrastructure.

All of this polling and economic data makes clear that Iran and Mr Rouhani have a problem. The policy priorities of the government are not in sync with those of the people.

The polls show that the public wants a better economy and more jobs, more political freedom and peaceful ties with their neighbours. What they’re getting instead is deeper engagement, more money spent and lives lost in foreign wars they want to end. And as the economic data show, the Rouhani government is facing the classic choice of “guns or butter” – and with finite resources, more guns simply means less butter. That is why the electorate that put him in office is now showing signs of deep discontent.

All of this should make the May election a referendum on Mr Rouhani’s performance and his government’s policy priorities.

Dr James Zogby is president of the Arab American Institute

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