Behind closed doors, one scenario is gaining popularity: a Sunni partitioning of Iraq and Syria. Under various proposals, the southern Syrian province of Daraa, Suwayda and Quneitrah would form a separate state, while mainly Sunni Anbar in west Iraq would be combined with Mosul to become an autonomous region. Iraqi Sunni tribesmen have been lobbying Washington for months.
Meanwhile, the Free Syrian Army’s southern forces have been acting independently for more than a year – answering only to the US and Saudi-run Military Operations Centre in Amman.
As their offensive against Damascus gains ground, FSA commanders have promised to maintain security along Syria’s borders with Jordan and Israel, and to lay the foundations for a democratic southern state. One cannot deny the allure of the pitch: modern, friendly Sunni states. New partners in trade and allies against ISIL.
But when faced with the facts, autonomous Sunni regions in Syria and Iraq are more fantasy than feasible, even if the idea of sovereign states in southern Syria and west Iraq do have their roots in history.
The area now comprising north-west Jordan, Daraa, Quneitrah and the Golan Heights was historically known as the Hauran, once an ancient city-state, later a province under the Ottomans. In the 1920s, large parts of the Hauran were combined to establish a Druze-controlled state under the French.
Sunni tribes and the western Iraqi desert plains were always administratively grouped with Baghdad under the Abbasid Caliphate and later the Ottomans, a province that stretched well past the Tigris and to the modern-day Iranian border.
The greatest obstacle to the formation of modern Sunni states lies in simple geography. The two states would be landlocked, without a port or functioning airport, connected to the outside world by a handful of roads devastated by air strikes.
Although blessed with some of the most fertile agricultural lands in the Middle East, an independent Hauran would lack access to the coast and key trade routes to Turkey.
A Hauran state would be forced to rely on the Jordanian market. Farmers would then have to compete with Jordanian produce, which enjoys generous subsidies.
The only other immediate trade partner would be west Iraq, itself still building its nascent economy.
A west Iraq Sunni state would fare no better. Western Iraq is known to have vast untapped oil and natural gas reserves – the Akkas gasfield, near the Syrian-Iraqi border, is reported to have the capacity to produce 100,000 barrels of oil and over 400 million cubic feet of natural gas per day. Yet Anbar is without any oil or natural gas infrastructure. A planned pipeline from Akkas was abandoned by a South Korean company after ISIL’s Anbar gains.
Should a future Iraqi Sunni region be at odds with the predominately Shiite east Iraq, it would have to rely on Jordan’s Aqaba port for export, requiring thousands of kilometres of pipeline and refinery infrastructure.
Even now, with a lifeline to Jordan open, Anbar remains heavily reliant on Baghdad. Fallujah and Ramadi rely on truckloads of humanitarian aid and food supplies let through Haditha, the last government outpost before ISIL territory.
Faced with these tough facts, proponents of Sunni partitioning offer up another scenario: a confederation with Jordan.
Due to the historic ties to Iraq and Syria, proponents say it would only be natural for Jordan to administratively form a union with southern Syria and Western Iraq, an official or informal “greater Sunni Arab state”. But all the speculation has no basis in reality.
Despite its support for Iraq’s Sunnis and moderate Syrian rebels, Jordan has no appetite for territorial expansion. After taking an influx of more than 1.4 million Syrians and 500,000 Iraqis, Jordan’s economy and infrastructure are still reeling.
In southern Syria and western Iraq, Jordan sees buffer zones, not future citizens.
Yet perhaps the greatest stumbling block to Sunni partitioning is political. There is no one dominant ideological identity uniting the denizens of southern Syria or western Iraq.
West Iraq, once a Baathist stronghold, now largely falls along tribal lines. If they cannot agree to unite, how can they agree on a state?
Southern Syria is even more fractured. Due to the growing number of militias, nearly every cluster of villages has become its own state.
Should the West and its Arab allies pursue a partition of Syria and Iraq, it will yield only one result: cantonisation.
Rather than unified states or autonomous regions, all signs show that southern Syria and west Iraq would break down into city-states and villages ruled by tribesmen and warlords.
Without a unified economy, army, police force or governance, the two regions would be paralysed by a power vacuum, with various militias’ territories expanding and contracting through endless infighting.
Such failed would-be-states would be unable to fight ISIL and would be perfect prey for the caliphate’s expansion.
The West and its Arab allies are probably exploring several scenarios as they re-examine their ISIL strategy. Syrian and Iraqi Sunni states should be crossed off the list.
Taylor Luck is a political analyst and journalist in Amman
MATCH INFO
Chelsea 3 (Abraham 11', 17', 74')
Luton Town 1 (Clark 30')
Man of the match Abraham (Chelsea)
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Cinco in numbers
Dh3.7 million
The estimated cost of Victoria Swarovski’s gem-encrusted Michael Cinco wedding gown
46
The number, in kilograms, that Swarovski’s wedding gown weighed.
1,000
The hours it took to create Cinco’s vermillion petal gown, as seen in his atelier [note, is the one he’s playing with in the corner of a room]
50
How many looks Cinco has created in a new collection to celebrate Ballet Philippines’ 50th birthday
3,000
The hours needed to create the butterfly gown worn by Aishwarya Rai to the 2018 Cannes Film Festival.
1.1 million
The number of followers that Michael Cinco’s Instagram account has garnered.
Ramy%3A%20Season%203%2C%20Episode%201
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreators%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAri%20Katcher%2C%20Ryan%20Welch%2C%20Ramy%20Youssef%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERamy%20Youssef%2C%20Amr%20Waked%2C%20Mohammed%20Amer%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
West Asia Premiership
Dubai Hurricanes 58-10 Dubai Knights Eagles
Dubai Tigers 5-39 Bahrain
Jebel Ali Dragons 16-56 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
WORLD RECORD FEES FOR GOALKEEPERS
1) Kepa Arrizabalaga, Athletic Bilbao to Chelsea (£72m)
2) Alisson, Roma to Liverpool (£67m)
3) Ederson, Benfica to Manchester City (£35m)
4) Gianluigi Buffon, Parma to Juventus (£33m)
5) Angelo Peruzzi, Inter Milan to Lazio (£15.7m
The specs
Engine: 8.0-litre, quad-turbo 16-cylinder
Transmission: 7-speed auto
0-100kmh 2.3 seconds
0-200kmh 5.5 seconds
0-300kmh 11.6 seconds
Power: 1500hp
Torque: 1600Nm
Price: Dh13,400,000
On sale: now
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Tips to stay safe during hot weather
- Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
- Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
- Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
- Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
- Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
- Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
- Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
Mia Man’s tips for fermentation
- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut
- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.
- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.
- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.
UAE SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Ali Khaseif, Fahad Al Dhanhani, Mohammed Al Shamsi, Adel Al Hosani
Defenders: Bandar Al Ahbabi, Shaheen Abdulrahman, Walid Abbas, Mahmoud Khamis, Mohammed Barghash, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Hassan Al Mahrami, Yousef Jaber, Salem Rashid, Mohammed Al Attas, Alhassan Saleh
Midfielders: Ali Salmeen, Abdullah Ramadan, Abdullah Al Naqbi, Majed Hassan, Yahya Nader, Ahmed Barman, Abdullah Hamad, Khalfan Mubarak, Khalil Al Hammadi, Tahnoun Al Zaabi, Harib Abdallah, Mohammed Jumah, Yahya Al Ghassani
Forwards: Fabio De Lima, Caio Canedo, Ali Saleh, Ali Mabkhout, Sebastian Tagliabue, Zayed Al Ameri
MATCH INFO
Burnley 0
Man City 3
Raheem Sterling 35', 49'
Ferran Torres 65'
