Next month’s elections in Myanmar have already been receiving the world’s attention.
There have been plaudits: they “mark a historic step”, and will constitute “an election of many firsts”.
There have been warnings: “The conduct and results of these elections will fundamentally shape our engagement with the Burmese government in 2016 and beyond,” said US assistant secretary of state Daniel Russel.
And there are already observers: from the Carter Centre, the EU and Asean, who are on hand to ensure the November 8 polls are as free and fair as possible.
Unfortunately, the elections are also destined to disappoint.
To begin with, misinformation abounds. They are being referred to as the first genuinely democratic national polls Myanmar has experienced since 1960. That was two years before the military took over and led the country down the path of isolation and poverty from which it only began to retreat almost 50 years later, in 2010, when reforms began under a civilian president.
Wrong on two counts. Firstly, there were democratic elections in 1990, won by the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD).
This was not what the generals had expected, however, so they decided not to recognise the result and continued their rule for another 20 years.
Secondly, the fact that a quarter of seats in parliament are reserved for the military means that the election can only be considered partly democratic at best: it also means that for the NLD to win a majority, it would need to take 67 per cent of the seats.
Most observers think this would be impossible, as the military-aligned ruling USDP does have some support, while parties representing some of Myanmar’s 135 ethnic groups are predicted to win up to 30 per cent of the vote.
Moreover, even if the NLD won every single seat, it would still be short of the more than 75 per cent of parliamentarians needed to change the constitution and remove a clause written with Ms Suu Kyi expressly in mind, which bars anyone with children or spouses who have foreign passports from being president (her two sons are British).
So, two things need to be borne in mind. Whatever the result, even a landslide for the NLD, their Nobel Peace Prize-winning leader will not, and cannot, become president.
And as Bridget Welsh, professor at Ipek University in Turkey and senior research associate at Taiwan’s National University, puts it: “The outcome of these elections will change Myanmar politics – just not to the extent of democratic direction many expect.”
If predictions are lowered to this more realistic level, the Myanmar vote should certainly be welcomed. There are concerns over the integrity of voter lists, advance voting and intimidation, and there are areas where polls cannot take place because of localised conflict. But it will be a huge improvement on the 2010 elections, which many claimed were rigged and the NLD boycotted.
A genuine contest is progress and a step towards greater democracy – just as Myanmar has been taking steps towards greater freedom and openness, but hasn’t become a model of liberalism overnight – should be applauded.
Outsiders ought, moreover, to be wary of attempting to dictate the pace of change – especially given the catastrophes that have resulted from recent western efforts to force liberal democracy on other countries.
It seems all too likely, however, that anything less than an NLD victory, with Ms Suu Kyi as president in all but name, will be seized on as proof by her legion of well-placed and influential fans that the election was fixed.
She is encouraging this in a way that Prof Welsh says is reckless: “She has been ratcheting up expectations, saying that the NLD will win 90 per cent of the seats. It’s totally unrealistic.”
The NLD leader’s sometimes imperious ways have also caused trouble within her party. Nearly all the respected Generation 88 group of former student activists have been snubbed as candidates next month, while her biographer Peter Popham admits that she “has a powerful sense that she is entitled to rule”.
Indeed, “the lady” recently told an interviewer: “I’ve made it quite clear that if the NLD wins the elections and we form the government, I’m going to be the leader of that government whether or not I am president.”
Mr Popham – author of The Lady and the Peacock – may well be right when he says: “there is no doubt that she is the most popular politician in the country”.
But back seat driver is an office unknown under most constitutions, and having someone other than the official leader believing that they have the right to call the shots can potentially undermine the rule of law itself.
During her years of suffering for the cause of democracy in Myanmar, which included a decade and a half under house arrest and an assassination attempt, Ms Suu Kyi became almost as admired a figure internationally as Nelson Mandela.
The future of Myanmar is, however, about more than just her. There are other capable leaders, both in her own and other parties. The country’s problems are too complex for it to be imagined that an NLD victory and Ms Suu Kyi as president are all it would take to put the country on a course to peace and prosperity.
When the results come in, we should remember this. Myanmar has come a long way in five short years. We should wish its people well on their journey towards a more open society – not carp and castigate just because it hasn’t reached the end of that road yet.
Sholto Byrnes is a senior fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies, Malaysia
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Bournemouth 0
Manchester United 2
Smalling (28'), Lukaku (70')
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.4-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%20with%2048V%20mild%20hybrid%20system%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E544hp%20at%205%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E750Nm%20at%201%2C800-5%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh700%2C000%20(estimate)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Elate%20November%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
if you go
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Seoul from Dh3,775 return, including taxes
The package
Ski Safari offers a seven-night ski package to Korea, including five nights at the Dragon Valley Hotel in Yongpyong and two nights at Seoul CenterMark hotel, from £720 (Dh3,488) per person, including transfers, based on two travelling in January
The info
Visit www.gokorea.co.uk
The specs
Engine: 0.8-litre four cylinder
Power: 70bhp
Torque: 66Nm
Transmission: four-speed manual
Price: $1,075 new in 1967, now valued at $40,000
On sale: Models from 1966 to 1970
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The biog
From: Upper Egypt
Age: 78
Family: a daughter in Egypt; a son in Dubai and his wife, Nabila
Favourite Abu Dhabi activity: walking near to Emirates Palace
Favourite building in Abu Dhabi: Emirates Palace
How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
- The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
- The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
- The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
- The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
- The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
Company name: Play:Date
Launched: March 2017 on UAE Mother’s Day
Founder: Shamim Kassibawi
Based: Dubai with operations in the UAE and US
Sector: Tech
Size: 20 employees
Stage of funding: Seed
Investors: Three founders (two silent co-founders) and one venture capital fund
The specs: 2018 Range Rover Velar R-Dynamic HSE
Price, base / as tested: Dh263,235 / Dh420,000
Engine: 3.0-litre supercharged V6
Power 375hp @ 6,500rpm
Torque: 450Nm @ 3,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 9.4L / 100kms
What are the GCSE grade equivalents?
- Grade 9 = above an A*
- Grade 8 = between grades A* and A
- Grade 7 = grade A
- Grade 6 = just above a grade B
- Grade 5 = between grades B and C
- Grade 4 = grade C
- Grade 3 = between grades D and E
- Grade 2 = between grades E and F
- Grade 1 = between grades F and G
Barbie
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Greta%20Gerwig%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Margot%20Robbie%2C%20Ryan%20Gosling%2C%20Will%20Ferrell%2C%20America%20Ferrera%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tips to avoid getting scammed
1) Beware of cheques presented late on Thursday
2) Visit an RTA centre to change registration only after receiving payment
3) Be aware of people asking to test drive the car alone
4) Try not to close the sale at night
5) Don't be rushed into a sale
6) Call 901 if you see any suspicious behaviour
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Du Plessis plans his retirement
South Africa captain Faf du Plessis said on Friday the Twenty20 World Cup in Australia in two years' time will be his last.
Du Plessis, 34, who has led his country in two World T20 campaigns, in 2014 and 2016, is keen to play a third but will then step aside.
"The T20 World Cup in 2020 is something I'm really looking forward to. I think right now that will probably be the last tournament for me," he said in Brisbane ahead of a one-off T20 against Australia on Saturday.
SPIDER-MAN%3A%20ACROSS%20THE%20SPIDER-VERSE
%3Cp%3EDirectors%3A%20Joaquim%20Dos%20Santos%2C%20Kemp%20Powers%2C%20Justin%20K.%20Thompson%3Cbr%3EStars%3A%20Shameik%20Moore%2C%20Hailee%20Steinfeld%2C%20Oscar%20Isaac%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More on animal trafficking
The specs
Engine: 2.2-litre, turbodiesel
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Power: 160hp
Torque: 385Nm
Price: Dh116,900
On sale: now
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
