One of Donald Trump’s campaign promises was to build up the US navy to 350 ships, a big leap from its current strength of 274. He seems to be moving closer to putting that promise into action by pledging to raise the US defence budget by $54 billion, or 10 per cent.
At a time of budgetary austerity, this is a huge sum, as it is in terms of global defence spending. Just the planned increase is similar to the total defence budgets of each of Britain, Russia and India. But it may turn out to be peanuts when matched against Mr Trump’s stated goal to boost American security and, as he puts it, stop losing wars and start “winning” again.
On his shopping list are not just ships, tanks and aircraft but also an alarming idea to boost US nuclear weapons capacity and make it “top of the pack”, thus tearing up more than 40 years of arms control agreements with Russia. Apart from going against the advice of senior officers who say that the US nuclear deterrent is sufficient, the president’s ambitions would sink his plans to improve relations with Russia.
The naval plan is more concrete and, not surprisingly, is likely to be supported by naval officers. It is worth looking at what the number of ships might actually mean for US security.
First, the number afloat has long been a political football, and Republicans have complained that the size of the navy is “smaller than it has been since 1917”.
This is a fatuous comparison: a century ago ships just had guns and binoculars and they lost sight of the enemy in the fog. These days they go into battle with aircraft, cruise missiles and sophisticated electronics enabling them to extend their reach over large distances. They are also hugely expensive.
It is worth recalling that the US navy has not engaged in a battle at sea since 1988, when one of its ships was damaged by an Iranian mine and the navy responded by attacking oil platforms and sinking an Iranian frigate, the only time it has destroyed a combat vessel of a hostile power since the end of the Second World War.
The lack of major engagements for 70 years suggests that the predominance of the Americans has ended the era of naval battles. The US navy is probably more powerful that the next five navies combined, and no one dares to mess with it.
But if the navy is so far superior to all others – Russia has only one 30-year-old diesel-powered aircraft carrier while the US will soon have 11 – then why bother to spend more money? This is particularly true at a time when the US has a ballooning debt, which the Republicans, at least during the Obama years, made a fetish of seeking to reduce.
The funds can only come from cuts elsewhere – including a proposed 37 per cent reduction in the state department and foreign aid budget.
This has aroused protest from retired military officers who point out that these civilian agencies – perhaps 4 per cent of total spending, compared with up to 56 per cent which goes on the military – perform key tasks without which the military would find it harder to operate. One particular concern is that US funding for the United Nations (22 per cent of the total) and its peacekeeping operations (29 per cent of the total) may be cut.
One reason for Mr Trump’s promise is clear – he loves the military. He has appointed three generals to key positions. Despite whispers of a “junta” taking over, they have proved the most capable, public-spirited and educated of the team Mr Trump is building. One of the reasons he claims to admire the military is that, as a rebellious teenager, he was sent to a military boarding school, where he flourished in the competitive environment. He later successfully avoided the draft for the Vietnam War – though that has not stopped him claiming to know more of military affairs than the soldiers who have seen combat.
No one has ever said that the recent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were strategic defeats because of a lack of ships and planes. The reasons lie not in hardware, but rather in a combination of arrogant civilian leadership, that failed to understand the political realities on the ground, and an officer class too ready to salute for fear of losing their budgets if they said no.
The contrast with Russia’s intervention in Syria is instructive. The Russians turned the tide of war in favour of their ally, the Syrian regime, with no more than a few dozen aircraft and a handful of ships. What was important was the correct use of military, intelligence and diplomatic assets to achieve a clearly defined goal.
The most likely arena of conflict for the US navy is in the seas around China, particularly where Beijing has been reinforcing artificial islands to strengthen its claim to the South China Sea. America’s 10 aircraft carrier groups have not stopped this process because the stakes are too high to risk conflict. Would another 70 ships make a difference? Unlikely.
In 2015, Mr Obama’s defence secretary, Ash Carter, took a rare public stand against the naval lobby’s “more is better” thinking.
He wrote at the time: “The navy’s strategic future requires more focusing on posture, not only on presence, and more on new capabilities, not only on new ship numbers.”
In simple English, smarter weapons, not more ships to place around the globe.
The logic here is that managing the rise of China as a regional power is likely to be conducted more by electronic warfare than a naval battle on the high seas.
In fact, it may turn out that the Pacific Ocean is wide enough for both countries to share and keep an eye on the other. But that is not a prospect that gets the juices running in Washington.
Alan Philps is a commentator on global affairs.
On Twitter @aphilps
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Company profile
Date started: January, 2014
Founders: Mike Dawson, Varuna Singh, and Benita Rowe
Based: Dubai
Sector: Education technology
Size: Five employees
Investment: $100,000 from the ExpoLive Innovation Grant programme in 2018 and an initial $30,000 pre-seed investment from the Turn8 Accelerator in 2014. Most of the projects are government funded.
Partners/incubators: Turn8 Accelerator; In5 Innovation Centre; Expo Live Innovation Impact Grant Programme; Dubai Future Accelerators; FHI 360; VSO and Consult and Coach for a Cause (C3)
Emiratisation at work
Emiratisation was introduced in the UAE more than 10 years ago
It aims to boost the number of citizens in the workforce particularly in the private sector.
Growing the number of Emiratis in the workplace will help the UAE reduce dependence on overseas workers
The Cabinet in December last year, approved a national fund for Emirati jobseekers and guaranteed citizens working in the private sector a comparable pension
President Sheikh Khalifa has described Emiratisation as “a true measure for success”.
During the UAE’s 48th National Day, Sheikh Khalifa named education, entrepreneurship, Emiratisation and space travel among cornerstones of national development
More than 80 per cent of Emiratis work in the federal or local government as per 2017 statistics
The Emiratisation programme includes the creation of 20,000 new jobs for UAE citizens
UAE citizens will be given priority in managerial positions in the government sphere
The purpose is to raise the contribution of UAE nationals in the job market and create a diverse workforce of citizens
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Company%20profile%20
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First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Pupils in Abu Dhabi are learning the importance of being active, eating well and leading a healthy lifestyle now and throughout adulthood, thanks to a newly launched programme 'Healthy Lifestyle'.
As part of the Healthy Lifestyle programme, specially trained coaches from City Football Schools, along with Healthpoint physicians have visited schools throughout Abu Dhabi to give fun and interactive lessons on working out regularly, making the right food choices, getting enough sleep and staying hydrated, just like their favourite footballers.
Organised by Manchester City FC and Healthpoint, Manchester City FC’s regional healthcare partner and part of Mubadala’s healthcare network, the ‘Healthy Lifestyle’ programme will visit 15 schools, meeting around 1,000 youngsters over the next five months.
Designed to give pupils all the information they need to improve their diet and fitness habits at home, at school and as they grow up, coaches from City Football Schools will work alongside teachers to lead the youngsters through a series of fun, creative and educational classes as well as activities, including playing football and other games.
Dr Mai Ahmed Al Jaber, head of public health at Healthpoint, said: “The programme has different aspects - diet, exercise, sleep and mental well-being. By having a focus on each of those and delivering information in a way that children can absorb easily it can help to address childhood obesity."
The%20Genius%20of%20Their%20Age
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20S%20Frederick%20Starr%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Oxford%20University%20Press%3Cbr%3EPages%3A%20290%3Cbr%3EAvailable%3A%20January%2024%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Film: Raid
Dir: Rajkumar Gupta
Starring: Ajay Devgn, Ileana D'cruz and Saurabh Shukla
Verdict: Three stars
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Financial considerations before buying a property
Buyers should try to pay as much in cash as possible for a property, limiting the mortgage value to as little as they can afford. This means they not only pay less in interest but their monthly costs are also reduced. Ideally, the monthly mortgage payment should not exceed 20 per cent of the purchaser’s total household income, says Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching.
“If it’s a rental property, plan for the property to have periods when it does not have a tenant. Ensure you have enough cash set aside to pay the mortgage and other costs during these periods, ideally at least six months,” she says.
Also, shop around for the best mortgage interest rate. Understand the terms and conditions, especially what happens after any introductory periods, Ms Glynn adds.
Using a good mortgage broker is worth the investment to obtain the best rate available for a buyer’s needs and circumstances. A good mortgage broker will help the buyer understand the terms and conditions of the mortgage and make the purchasing process efficient and easier.
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
2.0
Director: S Shankar
Producer: Lyca Productions; presented by Dharma Films
Cast: Rajnikanth, Akshay Kumar, Amy Jackson, Sudhanshu Pandey
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
THE SPECS
BMW X7 xDrive 50i
Engine: 4.4-litre V8
Transmission: Eight-speed Steptronic transmission
Power: 462hp
Torque: 650Nm
Price: Dh600,000
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
Vidaamuyarchi
Director: Magizh Thirumeni
Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra
Rating: 4/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
