The “art of diplomacy” involves the promotion and defence of core national interests within the flux of events. This imperative of managing both principle and pragmatism is evident in the complex relationship between the United States and Iran. The decades-old antagonism between the two has not prevented cooperation when both parties have identified mutual benefits. Although Barack Obama’s call in March 2009 for a “new beginning” in bilateral relations was overtaken by a deepening international dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme, more recent events have revived speculation about a potential strategic accord – or “grand bargain” – between the two countries.
US and Iranian interests have aligned, at least temporarily, over the rise of the Islamic State. This threat has led to covert cooperation between the two powers to contain the extremists who currently hold sway over large areas of Iraq and Syria. While the US has launched air strikes against Islamic State forces, Tehran has been willing to play a constructive role in propping up the Baghdad government. Washington has been quietly gratified by Iranian pressure on the former Iraqi prime minister, Nouri Al Maliki, to stand aside in order to allow a new central government to attempt to heal the sectarian divisions threatening the Iraqi state.
Any “partnership” over Iraq between the two countries is likely to be a discreet affair owing to the risk of domestic criticism by pro-Israeli Congressmen in Washington and hardliners close to Ali Hosseini Khamanei in Tehran. Some recent instances of limited cooperation were scuppered by the persistence of ideological hostility. After the 9/11 attacks, Tehran’s tentative offers to assist the US in Afghanistan did not prevent then-president George W Bush from denouncing Iran as a member of the “axis of evil”. Washington also condemned the Islamic Republic for sponsoring terrorism, suppressing domestic opposition and seeking weapons of mass destruction. The Iranian government retaliated through strident anti-US rhetoric, enhanced support for Iranian proxies in Iraq and Lebanon, and further nuclear energy research and development.
In the aftermath of the unrest seen in a number of Arab countries in 2011, the growth of regional instability and Iran’s economic isolation due to sanctions has resulted in a change of tone in US-Iran relations. To a great extent this reflects a less confrontational approach in Washington. Although Mr Obama appreciates the value of “soft power”, he is notoriously reticent in terms of portraying US values as unique and worthy of emulation. Unlike Mr Bush he does not evoke the pursuit of “freedom” and “democracy” as a foreign policy goal. Mr Obama does not seek to export values, but has instead sought to be pragmatic in dealing with the Middle East. The election of Hassan Rouhani as Iran’s president in June 2013 inaugurated a moderation of the previous hostility towards the US due to Mr Rouhani’s focus on alleviating Iran’s economic difficulties through the lifting of sanctions.
Nevertheless, despite the tentative improvement in US-Iranian relations, there are plenty of potential difficulties ahead. Even if the jihadists are defeated in Iraq, the insurgency cannot be totally subdued unless it is also neutralised in Syria. Confronting the Islamic State in Syria will test the tactical accord between Washington and Tehran. While Iran remains firmly supportive of Bashar Al Assad, the US has made it clear that it will have nothing to do with the current Syrian regime. In addition, Iran will continue supporting Hizbollah as a key ally in Lebanon and Syria regardless of western attitudes.
Beyond the problematic regional issues, another uncertainty is the outcome of the current talks on Iran’s nuclear programme. Although this issue has been “internationalised” through United Nations involvement and the cooperation between the P5+1 powers (US, UK, France, Russia, China plus Germany), any eventual solution will be dependent on whether or not direct discussions between US and Iranian negotiators can succeed. Although Mr Rouhani has placed great emphasis on a successful conclusion to these talks, the deep mistrust of the US felt by Mr Khamenei and his allies in Tehran could still lead them to veto any deal.
From Mr Khamenei’s perspective, a genuine rapprochement with the US could pose an existential threat to the Iranian regime. Antagonism towards the US is fundamental to the Islamic Republic’s revolutionary philosophy. Iran’s leadership distrusts Mr Obama’s attempts at engagement as much as they did his predecessor’s bellicosity. Whether through propaganda, economic sanctions or military power, Iranian hardliners fear that their old antagonist is set on destroying the Islamic Republic. Mr Khamanei suspects that the US will continue to undermine the Islamic Republic through a “cultural invasion”, as well as political and economic pressure.
The relationship between the US and Iran is too complex to be reduced to a “zero-sum” equation, which assumes that the relationship can only evolve on the basis of either total hostility or a comprehensive resolution of all issues in dispute. The persistence of mistrust between Washington and Tehran will limit the scope for any “grand bargain”. While a convergence of interests over Iraq will encourage both the US and Iran to moderate their mutually antagonistic propaganda, it is worth remembering the observation of Zhou Enlai, the former Premier of the People’s Republic of China, that “all diplomacy is a continuation of war by other means”.
Stephen Blackwell is an international politics and security analyst
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
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2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
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