It’s difficult to be optimistic in Lebanon today, but we are at a valuable new moment in the country’s history. After decades of feeding off of a rentier system, the country’s corrupt political forces realise they have killed the beast that fed them. It is “game over.” Their ability to recreate what they had before is nil.
If one dared be optimistic, it would be optimism that Lebanon has no alternative today but to rebuild everything from scratch. Even the promise of income from oil and gas was dealt a major blow recently, blocking the oligarchy’s sole way out of their financial dilemma. This interregnum creates an opening for Lebanese society partly to shape its own destiny against the political actors who impoverished them.
There are two paths open for Lebanon today. There is the path of going to the International Monetary Fund and accepting a reform plan that permits the institution to disburse funds to Lebanon. Or, barring that, there is the path of bankruptcy, state collapse, chaos, possibly famine, and mass emigration.
There is simply no third way. Certainly, the politicians or leading political parties have no sincere desire to embrace reform. Nor can they afford, however, an implosion of the state, which would undermine their domination and everything they have fought to preserve since public protests began last October 17.
An IMF bailout plan is the only available key to unlocking wider foreign aid to Lebanon – namely, from the World Bank and the countries that pledged money at the CEDRE conference of 2018. Without such funds, Lebanon will not be able to feed itself within a few months, nor will it be able to import fuel or medicine.
Gone is the rentier system that kept Lebanon afloat. The country was able to sustain its perennial deficits thanks to remittances from Lebanese abroad, including the Gulf countries. For a variety of reasons these started to decline in the past decade. The fact that most depositors are certain to lose a significant share of their money through a financial bail-in plan means that the willingness of Lebanese to send money home has evaporated, and this mood will endure.
Nor can the country hope to attract capital to its banking system as it once did. The lack of confidence in Lebanon and its political direction will remain a hindrance to aid from Arab countries.Both the global economic situation and the lack of confidence in the Lebanese system means that foreign support is unlikely to come. The old order is finished, and the only exit is through an organisation, the IMF, that will keep close tabs on what the government does in its reform programme, perhaps on a monthly basis.
To make matters worse for Lebanon’s oligarchy, its internal coherence is shattering amid rival accusations of corruption. Now, mendacious politicians are portraying themselves as paragons of rectitude. They are anticipating the violent public reaction to widespread destitution, years of economic struggle, children who will pay a heavy price in their education, the loss of social status and self-esteem and the overall misery that accompanies economic disintegration.
The IMF won’t reverse all that, but it is essential if Lebanon is to have any hope of doing so. The political actors finally grasp this.
Hezbollah, even if it is better prepared than others to survive the economic earthquake, needs a state with which to envelop itself. Or else it would not have worked so hard to bring a new government to office earlier this year. It must sense that a Lebanese state fragmented by economic ruin and dissension would make any Israeli attack much more likely and devastating. Nor would the party’s worth to Iran be quite as significant if all it controlled was a failed state.
Hezbollah’s ally Nabih Berri, the parliament speaker, is even more vulnerable. His supporters are mainly in the civil service, where salaries have been slashed by the depreciation of the Lebanese pound. Mr Berri’s inability to assist his followers today, and his unsavoury reputation, explain why he is so keen to arrive at a deal with the IMF.
The IMF won't reverse everything, but it is essential if Lebanon is to have any hope of doing so
Saad Hariri, the former prime minister, is of a similar frame of mind. He sees himself as the natural interlocutor with the international community and the Arab states on financial and economic matters. Unless Lebanon has an IMF deal in hand, Mr Hariri will have no role to play if he returns to office.
Finally, Gebran Bassil, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, also needs a deal. He pines for the presidency now held by his father-in-law Michel Aoun. But of what value is being president if Lebanon fails to agree with the IMF and is transformed into an economic basket case on par with Venezuela - only without the oil revenues?
The general view is that Lebanon’s political class is incapable of reforming, and therefore its acceptance of an IMF plan is impossible. The first part of the sentence is mostly true. But Lebanon’s political actors are also focused on their own survival, which means the second half of the sentence cannot be true.
There are two roads open for Lebanon today, one leading toward reform, the other toward devastation. The political parties will grind their teeth and scheme to get as much out of the IMF as they can, but they will have to broadly accept an agreement in the end. They’ve trapped themselves and have nowhere else to go.
Michael Young is editor of Diwan, the blog of the Carnegie Middle East programme, in Beirut
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
THE SPECS
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 275hp at 6,600rpm
Torque: 353Nm from 1,450-4,700rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Top speed: 250kph
Fuel consumption: 6.8L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: Dh146,999
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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A Long Way Home by Peter Carey
Faber & Faber
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Company%20profile
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War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
How to get there
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
'Shakuntala Devi'
Starring: Vidya Balan, Sanya Malhotra
Director: Anu Menon
Rating: Three out of five stars
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
FINAL LEADERBOARD
1. Jordan Spieth (USA) 65 69 65 69 - 12-under-par
2. Matt Kuchar (USA) 65 71 66 69 - 9-under
3. Li Haotong (CHN) 69 73 69 63 - 6-under
T4. Rory McIlroy (NIR) 71 68 69 67 - 5-under
T4. Rafael Cabrera-Bello (ESP) 67 73 67 68 - 5-under
T6. Marc Leishman (AUS) 69 76 66 65 - 4-under
T6. Matthew Southgate (ENG) 72 72 67 65 - 4-under
T6. Brooks Koepka (USA) 65 72 68 71 - 4-under
T6. Branden Grace (RSA) 70 74 62 70 - 4-under
T6. Alexander Noren (SWE) 68 72 69 67 - 4-under
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Padmaavat
Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali
Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh
3.5/5
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
The bio
Favourite book: Kane and Abel by Jeffrey Archer
Favourite quote: “The world makes way for the man who knows where he is going.” - Ralph Waldo Emerson, American essayist
Favourite Authors: Arab poet Abu At-Tayyib Al-Mutanabbi
Favourite Emirati food: Luqaimat, a deep-fried dough soaked in date syrup
Hobbies: Reading and drawing
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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