Former US president Bill Clinton once observed “it’s just one small step from legacy to lame duck”. With the Republican party now firmly in control of the US Congress, the present incumbent of the White House will be mindful of the metaphorical tightrope he is walking as his current tour of East Asia reaches a climax this weekend.
After attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Beijing and the ninth East Asia Summit in Naypyitaw, Myanmar, president Barack Obama’s round of regional visits finishes in Brisbane, Australia, where he will join his fellow G20 leaders and give a major foreign policy speech. This address should give a clearer notion of what legacy he hopes to leave in the Asia-Pacific region despite his reduced status at home.
Mr Obama’s trip is intended to consolidate one of the signature themes of his approach to international affairs, namely the US “pivot” or “rebalance” away from Europe and the Middle East towards East Asia. The pivot, initiated in 2010, was intended to reassure regional allies such as Japan, Australia and the Philippines by reaffirming US commitments. The policy covers a broad range of issues, with the main focus being on security and trade. Through a renewed alliance structure, Washington has sought to both prevent China from bullying its neighbours and increase its own market access along the Asia-Pacific littoral.
Militarily, the pivot showed a degree of continuity with the Clinton and Bush administrations’ boosting of the US force deployments in the region. Even at the height of the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, the US continued strengthening military units in the Pacific and expanding its defence cooperation with local allies. Recent military agreements have included joint naval exercises with Japan, arms for the Philippines and defence cooperation agreements with Indonesia and New Zealand.
In terms of trade, the US is pushing its ambitious Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a deal that could potentially include 12 nations from the Asian and American continents producing a third of the world’s economic output. Among the Asian nations expected to join the TPP are Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam, though China has been excluded because it fails to meet free market and environmental standards. In furthering its own trading interests, Beijing is seeking to build the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific.
Washington and Beijing’s competing trade agendas reflect the geopolitical rivalry between the two countries. Chinese president Xi Jinping sees the TPP as a purposely designed rich man’s club and evidence that the US is bent on containing Chinese power. China has strongly resented the US taking sides with Vietnam and the Philippines over territorial disputes in the South China Sea, in particular the potentially oil-rich Spratly Islands. In addition, the Chinese are also suspicious of the blandishments of western “soft power” in the form of human-rights promotion, as was seen during the recent disturbances in Hong Kong when Beijing firmly told the US and its allies not to interfere in the affair.
Increasing tensions between the US and China have affected issues beyond East Asia, such as the Iranian nuclear programme and the Syrian civil war. Although China worked with its UN Security Council partners to build the international sanctions regime against the Iranian nuclear programme, China has been less cooperative of late. In response to further western efforts to tighten sanctions, China reached its own bilateral agreement with Tehran to purchase oil. Beijing has also used its UN Security Council seat to hold back western intervention in Syria and align Chinese policy with Russia’s backing of Bashar Al Assad’s regime.
Aside from China, Russian attendance at the current round of multilateral meetings reflects its great power status in Asia and beyond. With western sanctions and falling oil prices, Russia is staring at the likelihood of a damaging recession over the next few years. Nevertheless, Russian president Vladimir Putin’s presence at the G20 will be a tangible reminder that Mr Obama, like any other leader, has to engage hostile governments as well as needy allies within the institutional structures that frame international relations.
While the US president might have promoted the Asia pivot, he has to consider national interests in their totality and this means continued involvement in the problems of Europe and the Middle East. Inevitably, both international and domestic actors sense that power is draining away from the current Washington administration. Beijing and Moscow share the view that Mr Obama is a president prone to rhetorical flights of fancy about international cooperation that do not reflect the reality of the hard-nosed competition for power and influence between the major players on the international scene.
Nevertheless, even with the Republicans having swept the board in the US midterms, it is too early to write off Mr Obama as a lame duck. Freed from expectations in the domestic sphere, he retains the power to secure a genuine foreign policy triumph in the form of the TPP. Ironically, with the Republican Party now dominant in Washington, the proposed agreement will stand a greater chance of being approved by Congress. The president thus still has the power to leave a shining international legacy in Asia at least before he leaves office.
Stephen Blackwell is an international politics and security analyst
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Tuesday's fixtures
Kyrgyzstan v Qatar, 5.45pm
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Racecard
%3Cp%3E1.45pm%3A%20Bin%20Dasmal%20Contracting%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh50%2C000%20(Dirt)%201%2C200m%3Cbr%3E2.15pm%3A%20Al%20Shafar%20Investment%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh60%2C000%20(D)%201%2C200m%3Cbr%3E2.45pm%3A%202023%20Cup%20by%20Emirates%20sprint%20series%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh84%2C000%20(D)%201%2C200m%3Cbr%3E3.15pm%3A%20HIVE%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh68%2C000%20(D)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3E3.45pm%3A%20Jebel%20Ali%20Mile%20Prep%20by%20Shadwell%20%E2%80%93%20Conditions%20(TB)%20Dh100%2C000%20(D)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3E4.15pm%3A%20JARC%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh60%2C000%20(D)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3E4.45pm%3A%20Deira%20Cup%20by%20Emirates%20Sprint%20series%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh76%2C000%20(D)%201%2C950m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Three ways to limit your social media use
Clinical psychologist, Dr Saliha Afridi at The Lighthouse Arabia suggests three easy things you can do every day to cut back on the time you spend online.
1. Put the social media app in a folder on the second or third screen of your phone so it has to remain a conscious decision to open, rather than something your fingers gravitate towards without consideration.
2. Schedule a time to use social media instead of consistently throughout the day. I recommend setting aside certain times of the day or week when you upload pictures or share information.
3. Take a mental snapshot rather than a photo on your phone. Instead of sharing it with your social world, try to absorb the moment, connect with your feeling, experience the moment with all five of your senses. You will have a memory of that moment more vividly and for far longer than if you take a picture of it.
Which products are to be taxed?
To be taxed:
Flavoured water, long-life fruit juice concentrates, pre-packaged sweetened coffee drinks fall under the ‘sweetened drink’ category
Not taxed
Freshly squeezed fruit juices, ground coffee beans, tea leaves and pre-prepared flavoured milkshakes do not come under the ‘sweetened drink’ band.
Products excluded from the ‘sweetened drink’ category would contain at least 75 per cent milk in a ready-to-drink form or as a milk substitute, baby formula, follow-up formula or baby food, beverages consumed for medicinal use and special dietary needs determined as per GCC Standardisation Organisation rules
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Results
- Brock Lesnar retained the WWE Universal title against Roman Reigns
- Braun Strowman and Nicolas won the Raw Tag Team titles against Sheamus and Cesaro
- AJ Styles retained the WWE World Heavyweight title against Shinsuke Nakamura
- Nia Jax won the Raw Women’s title against Alexa Bliss
- Daniel Bryan and Shane McMahon beat Kevin Owens and Sami Zayn
- The Undertaker beat John Cena
- The Bludgeon Brothers won the SmackDown Tag Team titles against the Usos and New Day
- Ronda Rousey and Kurt Angle beat Triple H and Stephanie McMahon
- Jinder Mahal won the United States title against Randy Orton, Rusev and Bobby Roode
- Charlotte retained the SmackDown Women’s title against Asuka
- Seth Rollins won the Intercontinental title against The Miz and Finn Balor
- Naomi won the first WrestleMania Women’s Battle Royal
- Cedric Alexander won the vacant Cruiserweight title against Mustafa Ali
- Matt Hardy won the Andre the Giant Battle Royal
TOURNAMENT INFO
Women’s World Twenty20 Qualifier
Jul 3- 14, in the Netherlands
The top two teams will qualify to play at the World T20 in the West Indies in November
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (captain), Chamani Seneviratne, Subha Srinivasan, Neha Sharma, Kavisha Kumari, Judit Cleetus, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Heena Hotchandani, Namita D’Souza, Ishani Senevirathne, Esha Oza, Nisha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Diriyah%20project%20at%20a%20glance
%3Cp%3E-%20Diriyah%E2%80%99s%201.9km%20King%20Salman%20Boulevard%2C%20a%20Parisian%20Champs-Elysees-inspired%20avenue%2C%20is%20scheduled%20for%20completion%20in%202028%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20The%20Royal%20Diriyah%20Opera%20House%20is%20expected%20to%20be%20completed%20in%20four%20years%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20Diriyah%E2%80%99s%20first%20of%2042%20hotels%2C%20the%20Bab%20Samhan%20hotel%2C%20will%20open%20in%20the%20first%20quarter%20of%202024%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20On%20completion%20in%202030%2C%20the%20Diriyah%20project%20is%20forecast%20to%20accommodate%20more%20than%20100%2C000%20people%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20The%20%2463.2%20billion%20Diriyah%20project%20will%20contribute%20%247.2%20billion%20to%20the%20kingdom%E2%80%99s%20GDP%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20It%20will%20create%20more%20than%20178%2C000%20jobs%20and%20aims%20to%20attract%20more%20than%2050%20million%20visits%20a%20year%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20About%202%2C000%20people%20work%20for%20the%20Diriyah%20Company%2C%20with%20more%20than%2086%20per%20cent%20being%20Saudi%20citizens%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More coverage from the Future Forum
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Turning%20waste%20into%20fuel
%3Cp%3EAverage%20amount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20at%20DIC%20factory%20every%20month%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EApproximately%20106%2C000%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAmount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20from%201%20litre%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%20%3Cstrong%3E920ml%20(92%25)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETime%20required%20for%20one%20full%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%20used%20cooking%20oil%20to%20biofuel%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EOne%20day%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EEnergy%20requirements%20for%20one%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%201%2C000%20litres%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%96%AA%20Electricity%20-%201.1904%20units%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Water-%2031%20litres%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Diesel%20%E2%80%93%2026.275%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Lewis Hamilton in 2018
Australia 2nd; Bahrain 3rd; China 4th; Azerbaijan 1st; Spain 1st; Monaco 3rd; Canada 5th; France 1st; Austria DNF; Britain 2nd; Germany 1st; Hungary 1st; Belgium 2nd; Italy 1st; Singapore 1st; Russia 1st; Japan 1st; United States 3rd; Mexico 4th
Zayed Sustainability Prize
UAE players with central contracts
Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Adnan Mufti, Mohammed Usman, Ghulam Shabbir, Ahmed Raza, Qadeer Ahmed, Amir Hayat, Mohammed Naveed and Imran Haider.
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
