geopolitics
Last Friday, Israeli bombers flew into Syria to attack a weapons store belonging to the Iranian-supplied Hizbollah militia near the desert town of Palmyra. At one level, this is nothing new – the Israelis have repeatedly bombed what they describe as convoys of arms such as rockets heading for Lebanon, which could change the balance of forces on the Lebanese border.
However, the reaction of the Syrian and Russian governments to this raid has been anything but routine, indicating that a new and more complex stage of the war has begun, one that may test the Kremlin’s diplomatic skills to the limit as it tries to create the conditions for a permanent ceasefire.
In this case, the Syrians responded to the attack by launching anti-aircraft missiles that strayed into Israeli territory, provoking a response from Israel’s anti-missile shield. Then the Israeli ambassador to Moscow was summoned to the Russian foreign ministry to explain the raid.
This is a bizarre diplomatic response since the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, have remained in close contact to avoid clashes between the two countries’ air forces and navies. What the Israelis have been doing to contain Hizbollah is certainly no secret to the Russians.
How then to explain this sudden tension between Russia and Israel? First, the launching of the anti-aircraft missiles is a clear sign of renewed confidence by the Syrian regime. (The missiles were apparently ancient SA-5s, not the far more sophisticated air defence system that Russia has installed in Syria to protect its own installations.)
Since the retaking of Aleppo in December, Bashar Al Assad seems to believe he is a victorious warrior statesman. Of course, it was Russia and Iran and its allied militias including Hizbollah that provided the air power and the foot soldiers to turn the tide of battle. Without them, the Al Assad family might already be in exile.
The second trend is that Iran, far from packing its bags and leaving Syria, seems to be settling in for the long haul. In recompense for the money and blood it has spent in the war, it wants a port on the Mediterranean, reviving memories of an imperial power play dating back to the ancient empire.
Of even greater concern to the Israelis is their fear that Hizbollah will be allowed to open a second front along the occupied Golan Heights, Syrian territory seized by Israel in 1967. This would turn Israel’s border with Syria, which the Assad family has kept quiet for more than three decades, into a war zone.
The decline in war fighting in Syria has changed the Israeli calculus. Hitherto Israel has been happy to watch Hizbollah losing men and credibility at home and in the wider Muslim world for engaging in an inter-Arab war rather than directing its firepower at Israel.
It is true that its halo is tarnished, but the result of the war may end up raising Hizbollah’s profile as the one force able to inflict damage on Israel.
These Israeli fears have led the defence minister, Avigdor Lieberman, to threaten to wipe out any Syria anti-aircraft battery that fires on intruding Israeli bombers. The same concerns are shared by Washington, which had made it clear that it sees the basis of a Syrian peace deal as the departure of Iran and its proxies from Syria. In the words of Nikki Haley, the United States ambassador to the United Nations, “We've got to make sure that, as we move forward, we're securing the borders for our allies as well.”
All this adds up to a diplomatic conundrum for Russia as it attempts to secure a permanent ceasefire in Syria. Neither Moscow, nor the Al Assad regime, has any interest in allowing Hizbollah to establish itself on the Golan border, not least because Iran’s tried and tested practice of manipulating its proxy militias will get in the way of the Russian policy of strengthening the Syrian state and its army, both of which came close to collapse.
But the Syrian regime, which has been dependent on Iran for money and oil as well as fighting men, is in no position to say no to Iranian demands. Nor can the Russians. Their profile in the Middle East may have risen to new heights as a result of US disinterest, but they know full well that they do not have the money or military capacity to take sole responsibility for remaking the region.
Russia is committed to Israeli security but the word coming out of Moscow is that Israeli concerns will not prevent the formation of a “united antiterrorism front” against ISIL, which still has its headquarters in the city of Raqqa, in north-east Syria. Such a “united front” would inevitably include Iran and the Shia Muslim militias it has assembled from Iraq and Afghanistan.
Moscow likes to accuse the Americans of hypocrisy in its concern over Iranian influence in Syria. Commentators point to the battle to drive out ISIL from the Iraqi city of Mosul, where the US military and air power are in open alliance with Iran and its militias.
Why is it right, they ask, for America to use Iran to crush ISIL in Iraq and wrong for Russia to do the same in Syria? Part of the answer is that America, for all its sins, is not propping up an unrepresentative, murderous government guilty of huge war crimes, while Russia is doing exactly that.
How Russia intends to resolve the issue of Iran in Syria is not yet known. What is clear is that Russia is feeling pressure over its alliance with Iran, and is not inclined to give in. In the words of the Russian commentator Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Centre, “it is totally unrealistic to hope that Russia will throw Iran under the bus for the sake of a rapprochement with the Trump administration or even better ties with Israel”.
Alan Philps is a commentator on global affairs
On Twitter: @aphilps
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The biog
Favourite hobby: taking his rescue dog, Sally, for long walks.
Favourite book: anything by Stephen King, although he said the films rarely match the quality of the books
Favourite film: The Shawshank Redemption stands out as his favourite movie, a classic King novella
Favourite music: “I have a wide and varied music taste, so it would be unfair to pick a single song from blues to rock as a favourite"
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The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
hall of shame
SUNDERLAND 2002-03
No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.
SUNDERLAND 2005-06
Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.
HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19
Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.
ASTON VILLA 2015-16
Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.
FULHAM 2018-19
Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.
LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.
BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
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