ISIL threat remains high

Like the multi-headed Hydra of Greek mythology, ISIL continues to re-emerge in more than one country, and in more than one way. In Libya, having been pushed out of its stronghold in the coastal city of Sirte in December, the group went to ground, only to re-emerge in other parts of the country.

Now the group, having lost its headquarters, is turning to hit-and-run attacks, focusing on oil and water infrastructure. In a country that has not yet managed to return to a measure of stability, such attacks can be both deadly and seriously disruptive, bleeding resources away and contributing to a feeling of uncertainty. Thus Libya, having removed the terror group from its control of territory, finds itself dealing with more conventional terrorism.

The same is true of other countries. In Iraq, Syria and Turkey, ISIL has conducted hit-and-run terror attacks, in addition to controlling territory in Iraq and Syria. ISIL therefore has a range of ways of spreading fear and, when the enclaves it controls in those two countries have been retaken, will still be able to conduct attacks. The retaking of territory is just the beginning.

All of this has led to some reconsideration of priorities in the region. Last week, American president Donald Trump spoke to Turkey’s president for the first time and they found common ground on the need to tackle extremists in Syria. The same week, Syria’s president Bashar Al Assad gave an interview in which he suggested he could cooperate with the United States to fight terrorism – even perhaps accepting US troops on the ground in Syria.

The sands therefore are shifting. This has both positive and negative aspects. The positive aspect is that a focus on removing ISIL goes hand-in-hand with removing the unstable conditions that allow the group to fester. For the Gulf, this particularly applies to Yemen, where the Houthi rebels have created such instability that ISIL have found a toehold.

The other side, however, is a concern that the Syria conflict will be sidelined in favour of defeating ISIL. Such a move must only be temporary. The conflict is itself a threat to stability in the region.