Following the Kremlin’s announcement last Tuesday that Russia had fulfilled the objectives of its intervention in Syria, Moscow is claiming a decisive success that could pave the way for a political solution to the on-going civil war.
With John Kerry, US secretary of state, having invested significant time and effort in enlisting Russia’s help for the peace process that recommenced this week in Geneva, Washington appears ready to work with Moscow in order to bolster the current fragile ceasefire and ease the humanitarian situation.
Questions persist, however, over what precisely Vladimir Putin has achieved through military intervention against Syria’s anti-regime forces.
Though the Obama administration has striven to avoid being drawn into the Syrian conflict, attitudes among senior US politicians and military leaders towards Russia are hardening and very likely to influence the next incumbent of the White House when he or she takes office next January.
At last month’s Munich security conference, US Senator John McCain observed that “the only thing that has changed about Mr Putin’s ambitions is that his appetite is growing with the eating”.
In addition, the likelihood of an agreement between the major Syrian factions at the current Geneva meeting seems remote. Bashar Al Assad insists that he will not step down, while the opposition are adamant that his complicity in the deaths of more than 250,000 Syrians make his remaining inconceivable.
A Geneva talks collapse may not cause undue concern for the Kremlin, given that they have effectively secured a statelet for Mr Al Assad’s regime across western Syria that can be easily maintained if a low-intensity conflict persists.
Mr Putin may be content to offer the same kind of support to Damascus as he has previously extended to Ukrainian separatists and allow the US and its allies to maintain the burden of tackling ISIL.
At the same time, though the Damascus regime is grateful to Russia for having saved its skin for the foreseeable future, they have also been left in no doubt of the limits on the extent to which Mr Putin can be relied upon.
It is rumoured that the Kremlin sought to put pressure on Mr Al Assad to step down late last year in order to pave the way for a political move to complement its military action.
The Syrian leader’s insistence that he is staying signifies that he will increasingly depend on Iran rather than Russia as his ultimate guarantor. To this end Iran is willing to invest far more in securing a regime that helps Tehran maintain its links with Hizbollah and ability to project power as far as Lebanon and the Israeli border.
The Kremlin may decide to play a positive role in the Geneva talks in order to build enough leverage to request the easing of western sanctions against Russia.
Even so, there is no immediate prospect of the US and the European Union agreeing to relax the measures that Mr Putin admits have taken a serious toll on the Russian economy.
Though some European leaders have grumbled about lost business opportunities, German chancellor Angela Merkel has worked hard to keep the EU states aligned against what she sees as the Kremlin’s recklessness and adventurism in undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty and intervening in Syria’s civil war.
Russia’s economic prospects remain grim given that oil prices show little sign of rising above $40 a barrel.
With the economy having shrunk by 3.7 per cent in 2015, the Moscow government has in recent weeks been mulling over a proposal to cut the $50 billion defence budget by 5 per cent.
The mooted cuts illustrate the stark choices faced by the Kremlin given that Mr Putin has prioritised spending to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars on the Russian armed forces over the past five years.
In mitigation, Mr Putin claims that the West is now taking Russia seriously again. Moscow’s carefully orchestrated celebrations of the country’s military prowess following the withdrawal from Syria included videos of Sukhoi fighter jets flying home to be greeted by enthusiastically patriotic crowds.
Though the pageantry was aimed at stoking up nationalist pride, the Kremlin no doubt also wishes to impress on the international community that Russia is back in business as a major power and capable of decisive action to defend its interests and protect its allies.
Perhaps a more accurate assessment is that the Kremlin’s decision to curb air strikes in Syria has all the appearances of a clever tactical move in the service of a strategy riddled with contradictions, uncertainty and opportunism.
Mr McCain is not alone in awaiting the Russian leader’s next surprise with trepidation. The risk is that Mr Putin might become intoxicated on his own propaganda to the extent that he will seek a new adventure in Russia’s “near neighbourhood” to distract his domestic audience from the increasing hardship they are facing.
Stephen Blackwell is an international politics and security analyst
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Torque: 620Nm
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Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
The Good Liar
Starring: Helen Mirren, Ian McKellen
Directed by: Bill Condon
Three out of five stars
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
1971: The Year The Music Changed Everything
Director: Asif Kapadia
4/5
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
More on animal trafficking
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
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Company Profile
Name: JustClean
Based: Kuwait with offices in other GCC countries
Launch year: 2016
Number of employees: 130
Sector: online laundry service
Funding: $12.9m from Kuwait-based Faith Capital Holding
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Pakistan squad
Sarfraz (c), Zaman, Imam, Masood, Azam, Malik, Asif, Sohail, Shadab, Nawaz, Ashraf, Hasan, Amir, Junaid, Shinwari and Afridi
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
EPL's youngest
- Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal)
15 years, 181 days old
- Max Dowman (Arsenal)
15 years, 235 days old
- Jeremy Monga (Leicester)
15 years, 271 days old
- Harvey Elliott (Fulham)
16 years, 30 days old
- Matthew Briggs (Fulham)
16 years, 68 days old
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Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
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Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Other key dates
-
Finals draw: December 2
-
Finals (including semi-finals and third-placed game): June 5–9, 2019
-
Euro 2020 play-off draw: November 22, 2019
-
Euro 2020 play-offs: March 26–31, 2020
