If anyone had predicted in 1998 that Indonesia’s president Suharto, the former army general whose autocratic rule had begun 31 years before, would be succeeded by Prabowo Subianto, it would not have seemed wildly improbable. A son-in-law of the late dictator, Mr Prabowo was also a general. When Suharto stepped down that May after riots shook Jakarta, there was speculation that the trouble had been provoked so that either Prabowo or his rival, the head of the armed forces, General Wiranto, could insist on intervening to “save the nation”.
That, 16 years later, there is a good chance that Mr Prabowo will become his country’s next president via democratic means is a huge step forward. If, however, when the electoral commission finally releases the results on July 22 – votes were cast last week, but it takes a long time to tally them in a country of 250 million people and 17,000 islands – he is found to be the winner, what will that say about Indonesians’ attitude towards democracy and their dark decades of dictatorship? The question still applies whoever ultimately prevails in the tightly fought contest between Mr Prabowo and Jakarta governor Joko Widodo, given the former’s closeness to the prize.
Mr Prabowo’s proximity to Suharto is one thing – and it is worth remembering that he was accused of the deaths of up to 500,000 suspected Communists while in power. Suharto was also accused of genocide in East Timor, where more than a quarter of the population perished after his 1975 invasion of the former Portuguese colony; and he was branded the most corrupt world leader of all time by the NGO Transparency International, which estimated he stole up to $35 billion (Dh128bn) from state coffers.
But far from distancing himself from the authoritarian tendencies of his former father-in-law, Mr Prabowo has declared a need for Indonesia to return to the 1945 constitution (which concentrated power in the presidency) and said that direct elections are “not appropriate for us”, because they “do not suit our culture”.
Add to the above that Mr Prabowo has long been dogged by unproven accusations of human rights abuses from his time in the military, and one has to ask: have Indonesians forgotten the past, or has democracy proved so disappointing that they yearn for the certainties of the strongman – which was all they experienced under first Sukarno from 1945 onwards and then Suharto, until the advent of democracy in 1998?
The respected regional commentator Karim Raslan believes that Mr Prabowo has been counting on the latter. He “has hammered the notion that Indonesia needs tegas (or firm) stewardship and that he is the best – indeed the only – player who can provide this”, wrote Mr Karim in a recent column in The Jakarta Globe.
“His message is one that prioritises a stronger state, one that is active in the economy and assertive in foreign affairs. We cannot underestimate the appeal of this message to Indonesians weary of [incumbent president] Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s indecisiveness and the current political deadlock.”
Mr Karim also points out that fragmenting power, a feature of the post-Suharto era, has led to a lack of central control. Fadli Zon, a key Prabowo lieutenant, agreed when I met him in Jakarta. “Under Suharto, corruption was centralised. It was only Golkar [Suharto’s puppet party], Suharto’s family and the military. Now corruption has been decentralised – it’s everyone!” Mr Fadli also expressed doubts about how free and fair elections in Indonesia were. “There’s no democracy here,” he said, adding on seeing my expression of surprise: “Over half of all MPs are elected through buying votes.”
But democratic transitions do not follow an inevitable path towards pluralism and a rejection of past patterns of government. There are examples all over the world. In the Philippines, the wife, son and daughter of the late president Ferdinand Marcos (who came second on the list of most corrupt leaders of all time) have been repeatedly elected to office. Kenya’s president, Uhuru Kenyatta, is the son of the country’s former dictator, Jomo Kenyatta. In Europe, Hungary’s populace has elected a party that The Wall Street Journal described as being one of “goulash authoritarianism”.
Christian Caryl, editor of Democracy Lab, a partnership between the London-based Legatum Institute and Foreign Policy magazine, detects a pattern.
“In the course of the past year, demonstrators in Ukraine set out to dislodge the president they voted into office, while protesters in Thailand and Turkey have been taking to the streets against elected leaders who are accused of overstepping their bounds. The word ‘democracy’ means different things to different people. A touch of nostalgia for the old regime among voters in Indonesia suggests that there might be more ambivalence about the democratic transition there than we often realise.”
Ultimately, the question is: how do we react when a relatively new democracy expresses a partial rejection of its recently acquired freedoms and supports a candidate who harks back to some of the certainties of a dictatorial past?
If we believe the proper implementation of democracy is to recognise the will of the people as shown through the ballot box, then we must accept that it is their choice. They may democratically choose a candidate or party whom the liberal West deems overly authoritarian. But that is seeing through a particular prism.
Indonesia is one example of “a foreign country: they do things differently there”. They do indeed; and that includes every state having the right to decide on the kind of democracy appropriate to their own culture. If that means Indonesians have voted for Mr Prabowo as president, so be it.
Sholto Byrnes is a Doha-based contributing editor of The New Statesman
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
World Cup warm up matches
May 24 Pakistan v Afghanistan, Bristol; Sri Lanka v South Africa, Cardiff
May 25 England v Australia, Southampton; India v New Zealand, The Oval
May 26 South Africa v West Indies, Bristol; Pakistan v Bangladesh, Cardiff
May 27 Australia v Sri Lanka, Southampton; England v Afghanistan, The Oval
May 28 West Indies v New Zealand, Bristol; Bangladesh v India, Cardiff
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The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
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GULF MEN'S LEAGUE
Pool A Dubai Hurricanes, Bahrain, Dubai Exiles, Dubai Tigers 2
Pool B Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Jebel Ali Dragons, Dubai Knights Eagles, Dubai Tigers
Opening fixtures
Thursday, December 5
6.40pm, Pitch 8, Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Dubai Knights Eagles
7pm, Pitch 2, Jebel Ali Dragons v Dubai Tigers
7pm, Pitch 4, Dubai Hurricanes v Dubai Exiles
7pm, Pitch 5, Bahrain v Dubai Eagles 2
Recent winners
2018 Dubai Hurricanes
2017 Dubai Exiles
2016 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
2015 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
2014 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The specs
Price, base / as tested Dh12 million
Engine 8.0-litre quad-turbo, W16
Gearbox seven-speed dual clutch auto
Power 1479 @ 6,700rpm
Torque 1600Nm @ 2,000rpm 0-100kph: 2.6 seconds 0-200kph: 6.1 seconds
Top speed 420 kph (governed)
Fuel economy, combined 35.2L / 100km (est)
More on Quran memorisation:
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NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
RESULTS
Lightweight (female)
Sara El Bakkali bt Anisha Kadka
Bantamweight
Mohammed Adil Al Debi bt Moaz Abdelgawad
Welterweight
Amir Boureslan bt Mahmoud Zanouny
Featherweight
Mohammed Al Katheeri bt Abrorbek Madaminbekov
Super featherweight
Ibrahem Bilal bt Emad Arafa
Middleweight
Ahmed Abdolaziz bt Imad Essassi
Bantamweight (female)
Ilham Bourakkadi bt Milena Martinou
Welterweight
Mohamed Mardi bt Noureddine El Agouti
Middleweight
Nabil Ouach bt Ymad Atrous
Welterweight
Nouredine Samir bt Marlon Ribeiro
Super welterweight
Brad Stanton bt Mohamed El Boukhari
MATCH INFO
Euro 2020 qualifier
Ukraine 2 (Yaremchuk 06', Yarmolenko 27')
Portugal 1 (Ronaldo 72' pen)
FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Saturday
Fiorentina v Torino (8pm)
Hellas Verona v Roma (10.45pm)
Sunday
Parma v Napoli (2.30pm)
Genoa v Crotone (5pm)
Sassuolo v Cagliari (8pm)
Juventus v Sampdoria (10.45pm)
Monday
AC Milan v Bologna (10.45om)
Playing September 30
Benevento v Inter Milan (8pm)
Udinese v Spezia (8pm)
Lazio v Atalanta (10.45pm)
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
Developer: Ubisoft Montreal / Ubisoft Toronto
Publisher: Ubisoft
Platforms: Playstation 4, Xbox One, Windows
Release Date: April 10
UAE rugby in numbers
5 - Year sponsorship deal between Hesco and Jebel Ali Dragons
700 - Dubai Hurricanes had more than 700 playing members last season between their mini and youth, men's and women's teams
Dh600,000 - Dubai Exiles' budget for pitch and court hire next season, for their rugby, netball and cricket teams
Dh1.8m - Dubai Hurricanes' overall budget for next season
Dh2.8m - Dubai Exiles’ overall budget for next season
Results
Stage seven
1. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates, in 3:20:24
2. Adam Yates (GBR) Ineos Grenadiers, at 1s
3. Pello Bilbao (ESP) Bahrain-Victorious, at 5s
General Classification
1. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates, in 25:38:16
2. Adam Yates (GBR) Ineos Grenadiers, at 22s
3. Pello Bilbao (ESP) Bahrain-Victorious, at 48s
