On January 30, the late Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto’s son Bilawal found himself in an unexpected position. He was unwitting proof of the new United States administration’s claims that its brand new travel restrictions on the citizens of seven, mainly Muslim, countries were not a blanket “Muslim ban”. For Bilawal Bhutto Zardari was sitting in Washington 48 hours after the travel ban had been introduced. He had not been denied entry to the US even though he is a politician from Pakistan, a country with “problems” as Donald Trump’s senior aides have repeatedly pointed out in the days since the ban. “Perhaps we need to take it further,” Mr Trump’s chief of staff Reince Priebus ominously told America and the world, mentioning Pakistan by name and indicating that the list of visa-proscribed countries may grow longer.
Many, not least Pakistan and its regional rival India, interpreted the remarks differently, each according to its needs. Amid growing domestic concern that Pakistan would be added to the shame list currently comprising Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen, Pakistan’s interior minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan warned that the whole idea of a travel ban “will harm the international alliance and consensus against terrorism”. But senior Indian diplomats made a snarky dig at Pakistan, saying “countries that have exported terror are not on the list”.
And from his vantage point in Washington, DC, where he was visiting the US Institute of Peace think tank and scheduled to meet new administration officials, Mr Bhutto Zardari darkly foresaw “a whole host of hostilities” from the ban. Especially, he said, if Pakistan joins the list.
Could it? Will the vague threat held out by the new US government be enough to keep Pakistan in line? What is the line anyway?
Unlike the 1990s, when it was deeply reliant on the US, Pakistan is now visibly closer to China, especially through the massive $46 billion (Dh168bn) joint venture known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
But the new US administration may want more active engagement, thereby ending the benign neglect of the Obama years.
The known knowns of Mr Trump’s view of Pakistan can best be summed up in the eight words he tweeted back in December 2011: “Get it straight: Pakistan is not our friend.” Seven months later, he was tweeting again in a vengeful sulk: “When will Pakistan apologise to us for providing safe sanctuary to Osama bin Laden for 6 years?! Some ‘ally’."
The unknown knowns, however, are Mr Trump’s allegedly effusive praise for Pakistan’s prime minister Nawaz Sharif, his country and his people, within weeks of winning the US election. According to a Pakistani account of the telephone discussion with Mr Sharif, Mr Trump is supposed to have raved about his “very good reputation” and “amazing country”, along with a promise to visit, something no American president has done since 2006.
Add to that the unknown unknowns of whether Mr Trump will follow through on his campaign trail promise to secure the release from prison of Pakistani doctor Shakeel Afridi, who helped the CIA hunt down bin Laden. “We give a lot of money to Pakistan … they take advantage,” he said, sounding aggrieved.
The imponderables, however, don’t obscure two basic facts. First, the Trump administration is more hardline than previous ones about the terrorist threat. It is decidedly more heedless about apportioning blame to Muslims and Muslim countries. And it is less willing to employ diplomatic niceties and tactics.
Mr Trump, who has already filed the paperwork to stand for re-election in 2020, is very conscious of his core voters’ fear of terrorist attacks on American soil. One of the more horrific of such attacks was in San Bernardino, California in December 2015, which was perpetrated by an American of Pakistani ethnicity and his Pakistani wife. Days after that, Mr Trump made his infamous and popular vow to the American people, which called for “a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on”.
Second, Mr Trump’s new defence secretary Gen James Mattis told the US Senate armed services committee just weeks ago that he would work with Islamabad to “focus on Pakistan's need to expel or neutralise externally-focused militant groups that operate within its borders”. And he used a more emollient tone to reprise his boss’s previously tweeted grievances: “We have long faced a lack of trust within the Pakistani military and government about our goals in the region.”
It stands to reason then that Washington will use every trick – and tweet – possible to secure Islamabad’s compliance. Pakistan knows this and in a nimble move, it detained cleric Hafiz Saeed, who is accused of links to the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks, within days of the travel ban list.
But that will not be enough – for Mr Trump and for his voters – and it is unclear if the new US administration will have the patience and the tact to persuade nuclear-armed Pakistan to cooperate. Back when Mr Trump was merely a candidate for president, Pakistan’s interior minister had scolded him for his high-handedness, declaring that “Pakistan is not a colony of the United States of America. He should learn to treat sovereign nations with respect.”
Perhaps realpolitik is the most respect anyone can hope for and even that may not last.
Rashmee Roshan Lall is a writer on world affairs
On Twitter: @rashmeerl
The%20specs
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Mia Man’s tips for fermentation
- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut
- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.
- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.
- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.
'Peninsula'
Stars: Gang Dong-won, Lee Jung-hyun, Lee Ra
Director: Yeon Sang-ho
Rating: 2/5
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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UAE SQUAD FOR ASIAN JIU-JITSU CHAMPIONSHIP
Men’s squad: Faisal Al Ketbi, Omar Al Fadhli, Zayed Al Kathiri, Thiab Al Nuaimi, Khaled Al Shehhi, Mohamed Ali Al Suwaidi, Farraj Khaled Al Awlaqi, Muhammad Al Ameri, Mahdi Al Awlaqi, Saeed Al Qubaisi, Abdullah Al Qubaisi and Hazaa Farhan
Women's squad: Hamda Al Shekheili, Shouq Al Dhanhani, Balqis Abdullah, Sharifa Al Namani, Asma Al Hosani, Maitha Sultan, Bashayer Al Matrooshi, Maha Al Hanaei, Shamma Al Kalbani, Haya Al Jahuri, Mahra Mahfouz, Marwa Al Hosani, Tasneem Al Jahoori and Maryam Al Amri
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
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- info goes here
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'My Son'
Director: Christian Carion
Starring: James McAvoy, Claire Foy, Tom Cullen, Gary Lewis
Rating: 2/5
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
MATCH INFO
Quarter-finals
Saturday (all times UAE)
England v Australia, 11.15am
New Zealand v Ireland, 2.15pm
Sunday
Wales v France, 11.15am
Japan v South Africa, 2.15pm
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
