Three Kuwaiti refugees head toward Kuwait City from the Iraqi border in March 1991. The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait – 25 years ago next week - created conditions that ISIL capitalised on, writes Faisal Al Yafai (AP Photo/David Longstreath)
Three Kuwaiti refugees head toward Kuwait City from the Iraqi border in March 1991. The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait – 25 years ago next week - created conditions that ISIL capitalised on, writes Faisal AShow more

How Saddam's Iraq laid the foundations for ISIL



Four days before US troops invaded Iraq for the first time, on January 13, 1991, Saddam Hussein issued a small but vital law.

It concerned the flag of Iraq, a red, white and black tricolour with three green stars. The new law changed the flag, adding the Arabic words "God is great" between the stars.

A small law issued in the midst of a gathering storm. But 25 years on from the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait that triggered the first Gulf War, it is apparent that this law, and particularly the political philosophy behind it, began a process that created the conditions for ISIL's success.

The road map that leads from the centralised Iraqi state of the 1990s to the disintegrating Iraq of today, starts in the 1980s, when Saddam Hussein's regime began to stutter.

The astonishing development of the 1970s began to slow under pressure from Saddam's ill-conceived war against Iran.

Saddam was particularly concerned about religious challenges to his rule during this period. Aside from the war against Iran, launched at least in part because of the fear of a new revolutionary Iran, the Muslim Brotherhood was also gaining support in Iraq, as it was in other Arab countries.

Saddam's response was to seek to co-opt religion for his own political purposes. By engaging with Salafism, a more austere version of Islam, Saddam believed he could find a way to control a revivalist Islam and exploit it for his own aims.

______________________________________________________________

Read more about the aftermath of the 2003 invasion:

Why Iraqi sectarianism is a persistent lie

America already tried imperialism in the Middle East – and it failed

______________________________________________________________

By the time of the first Gulf War, this idea rapidly became a means of survival for the regime. Having invaded Kuwait and finding himself opposed by most Arab countries, Saddam lost his (self-declared) role as a defender of the Arabs and heir to the mantle of Arab nationalism. He turned, instead, to religion as a justification for his rule.

In the aftermath of the 1991 war, Saddam launched his hamla imaniyya, a faith campaign that sought to entrench Islam across the Baath party and Iraqi society. Religious instruction became mandatory, and the ostensibly secular society he took over in 1979 morphed into a society with religion – or at least the outward signs of devotion – at the heart of it.

What does all of this have to do with ISIL?

To understand that, we have to look at a former Iraqi intelligence officer called Samir Al Khlifawi.

In documents uncovered in Aleppo by the German magazine Der Spiegel, it became clear that Al Khlifawi, going by the pseudonym Haji Bakr, had set up a meticulous plan for ISIL's growth and success, based in significant part on his experience as part of the Iraqi regime.

Perhaps the most telling part of the plans as outlined in the documents was a re-run of Saddam's exploitation of religion.

Al Khlifawi, Der Spiegel claimed, wanted to put a religious face on the militant group, and used Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi. Whether or not that specific element of the story is true, the composition of the ranks of ISIL undoubtedly follows the Khlifawi playbook.

By recruiting under the banner of religion, ISIL has swelled its numbers with foreigners – Tunisians, Britons, Uzbeks and other Asians. The group may be led and directed by Iraqis, but very few of the recruits are from either Syria or Iraq.

This solves one of the most critical issues that Saddam faced in his attempt to "Islamise" his regime: the possibility that his followers might recognise a difference between religious rhetoric and his actions.

Any attempt to justify political action with religious teachings faces a barrier: what to do about those actions you wish to carry out but are expressly forbidden by the religion?

Saddam faced this problem early. During the 1991 war, Saddam sought to attack Saudi Arabia as a way of drawing the war more widely and getting the US to stretch their forces.

But the immediate justification for attacking Saudi Arabia was problematic: not only was Saudi an Arab country, it was also the seat of the two holiest places in Islam.

Seeking a justification, Saddam argued that, by relying on US troops to defend Mecca and Medina, Saudi Arabia's rulers had violated their role as leaders of the Muslim world. (Some might recognise this argument: Osama bin Laden made it in his first "declaration of war" 15 years later.)

In essence, Saddam sought to do to an entire country what ISIL would later do to entire communities: excommunicate them from Islam and therefore make them "legitimate" targets, a practice known as takfirism.

ISIL has adopted this practice enthusiastically, excommunicating entire sects (such as Shia Muslims). But by drawing their recruits mainly from non-Arabs, they sidestep the possibility that some of those recruits might point to the Quran and ask where, precisely, such death and destruction is sanctioned.

The 25 years since the invasion of Kuwait have seen numerous changes, in Iraq and across the Middle East. ISIL was not created in a day, but from the ashes of specific political decisions – decisions taken at the beginning of the 2003 invasion and over many years since.

But the co-option of religion for political purposes remains at the heart of their system of control, and it grew out of a peculiarly Iraqi soil, out of a specific political context that existed in Iraq.

When Saddam Hussein was hanged, ISIL did not exist. But Saddam had already sown the seeds that, in the right conditions, could flourish into the militant monster of today.

falyafai@thenational.ae

On Twitter: @FaisalAlYafai

In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe

Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010

Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille

Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm

Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year

Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”

Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners

TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013 

Electoral College Victory

Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate. 

 

Popular Vote Tally

The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”