Any announcement of military action usually brings out the armchair generals and the armchair pacifists. Both have made their appearances on television networks and social media since fighter jets began bombing Houthi targets in Yemen.
Criticism of the decision to assemble an anti-Houthi coalition has ranged from the suggestion that Saudi Arabia was interfering in the affairs of its neighbour, that the military attack would embroil Egypt in another prolonged conflict (memories of its 1963 war in Yemen all over again), to the rather outlandish argument that the Houthis represent a popular revolution.
But critics of the Gulf’s military action in Yemen have to answer one question: what was the outlook for Yemen’s future at one minute to midnight last Wednesday?
It is certainly true that, at midnight when Saudi Arabia’s fighter jets began bombing raids, the trajectory of Yemen’s post-revolution transition changed. Indeed, I suspect we will look back at that moment as the beginning of a new phase of Arab intervention.
But the question the critics have to answer is on what trajectory was the transition before?
Because the political outlook on Wednesday was certainly not positive. The GCC-backed transition, imperfect though it was, at least provided a road map. It certainly provided a more consensual approach than that offered by a militia from Yemen’s north. There was, let’s be clear, no Houthi prescription for Yemen’s people, only a power grab.
Military intervention is hard. Reshaping a political landscape with explosives always creates unintended consequences – and concealed behind the politician’s phrase “unintended consequences” is a reality of broken bodies and destroyed buildings.
Yet military action is sometimes necessary to stop something worse: the slow suffocation of a country leads to an inevitable consequence. The idea that military action is always and everywhere wrong is a dangerous fallacy.
In particular, in Yemen, it ignores the fact that the Houthi takeover was, in itself, a military intervention.
It may have taken longer, it may have been framed in terms of “popular legitimacy”, but the principle was the same. A small group was seeking to undermine the political framework of the transition, and doing so without any oversight or legitimacy.
With or without the Saudi intervention, the political transition of Yemen was being altered.
Remember that the Houthis entered Sanaa by force of arms – they were not carried there by the popular will of the people. It was not the Yemeni people who installed Mohammed Al Houthi in the republican palace in Sanaa in February – it was the guns of his militia.
The dissolution of parliament, the arrest of the president, the forming of a new ruling committee – none of these were done in consultation with anyone but the Houthis themselves.
It is right to question military action, but criticising the military action as changing the direction of Yemen is rather like beginning a football match commentary at half-time. The game was already in motion.
Critics of the intervention are only looking at the situation at the moment and ignoring the context of how we got here. In particular, they are ignoring the alternative trajectory – what would have happened had the Houthi advanced been allowed to continue.
Because the Houthi’s march to Sanaa, their takeover of the capital, and then their march south through Taez towards Aden was not to enforce the popular will of the Yemeni people, it was to pressure Abdrabbu Mansur Hadi into capitulating to their demands.
How, precisely, was the “popular will” of Yemen served by bombing Mr Hadi’s home in Aden? How would Yemen’s post-revolution transition be facilitated by Mr Hadi’s assassination?
Were the Gulf states meant to sit back and watch as a militia backed by a regional rival set about dismantling the transition plan they drafted?
Because that is what the situation in Yemen looked like at one minute to midnight on Wednesday. The choice in Riyadh was to either let that scenario play out, or seek to alter it to something better.
No one can predict the progression of a war. But Yemen’s transition was being choked last week. With planning, with political will, and with a lot of luck, it may just have a chance to breathe again.
falyafai@thenational.ae
On Twitter: @FaisalAlYafai
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
COMPANY%20PROFILE%3A
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
HAJJAN
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Abu%20Bakr%20Shawky%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3EStarring%3A%20Omar%20Alatawi%2C%20Tulin%20Essam%2C%20Ibrahim%20Al-Hasawi%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross
Price, base / as tested: Dh101,140 / Dh113,800
Engine: Turbocharged 1.5-litre four-cylinder
Power: 148hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 250Nm @ 2,000rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed CVT
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.0L / 100km
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
The Kingfisher Secret
Anonymous, Penguin Books
