U.S. President Donald Trump has been engaging in a trade war with Chine for the past year. Bloomberg
U.S. President Donald Trump has been engaging in a trade war with Chine for the past year. Bloomberg

Retaliatory trade wars hurt the entire world



When US President Donald Trump unilaterally imposed increased tariffs on Chinese goods, nearly one year ago, many of his supporters saw the move as an effort to boost the American economy and put an end to unfair trade practices. Since then, matters have escalated rapidly, and the two world superpowers have been locked in an ongoing trade war. Part of the problem relates to the Chinese tech giant Huawei, which the US claims cannot be trusted to oversee the implementation of a new 5G network for security reasons. While it is important that these concerns are addressed properly, escalating tensions between the two countries have benefited no one.

In fact, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has found that, if things continue as they are, the dispute will cost the world economy almost $600 billion by 2021. Furthermore, US companies are suffering because of the row. For instance, Apple's stock fell by nearly 7 per cent last May, almost immediately after Mr Trump declared he would increase tariffs on China.

Not only does a decrease in free trade threaten the livelihoods of people in both countries, protectionism also bears considerable political risks for the US. In recent weeks, Mr Trump has turned on neighbouring countries. Washington has threatened to impose higher tariffs on Mexico, if it does not take further action to prevent migrants from crossing the border into the US. Similarly, the Trump administration has decided to end the Cuban detente initiated by Barack Obama, banning cruise ships and recreational vessels from operating between the two countries. Experts believe that this will have disastrous effects on Cuba's tourism-based economy. It is also likely to bolster the nation's support for Venezuela's controversial president Nicolas Maduro, who is no longer recognised by the US. On Friday, America also removed India's preferential trade status, which had allowed some goods from the country to enter the US free of duty. New Delhi has yet to retaliate, but none of this augurs well for future economic relations.

Many of these countries, with which the Trump administration could have cultivated close ties, are shifting their focus away from the US. Today, China’s President Xi Jinping met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Against a backdrop of growing US animosity, their talks were focused on making new trade deals and investment pledges. Instead of creating new partnerships, the US is only succeeding in bringing its rivals closer together and alienating those nearby. True to his promises, Mr Trump’s “America first” approach has, indeed, built walls – just not the kind he initially planned on. Instead, he has isolated his country from potential allies and damaged the global economy. Tariffs and tough economic measures may be popular with Mr Trump’s voter base, but in the long run, a trade war will be detrimental to us all.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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