Lebanon's government has fallen: but will anything change?



“We have reached a dead end.” So said a shell-shocked Saad Hariri, standing before a portrait of his late father Rafik, as he announced the resignation of the entire Lebanese government. As crowds cheered in the street and waved flags, the sombre prime minister admitted: “No one is bigger than this country.”

The announcement follows an extraordinary fortnight in Lebanon. For 13 days, more than one million Lebanese people have taken to the streets, demanding the fall of the government and rising up against sectarian-based politics, widespread corruption, unemployment and poor access to basic services. That they have achieved their aim in such a short time might give them cause for celebration tonight but tomorrow, the sobering thought of who might replace the outgoing government will undoubtedly strike home. It is critical that those elements who already seek to sow divides among the Lebanese, such as Hezbollah, are not able to exploit this power vacuum. This is a precarious moment and it is vital whoever is responsible for taking the country forward seeks to establish stability and security quickly.

In truth, Mr Hariri was stuck between a rock and a hard place. Blamed for many of Lebanon’s failures, the clock was ticking on his time in power - but the fall of the government with him was an unexpected consequence of a great swelling of discontent over years of incompetence and inefficiency. Mr Hariri tried to quell public disquiet by announcing a host of sweeping government reforms eight days ago – but it was too little too late. A proposed cabinet shuffle also failed to stay the tide of resentment. The powerful Hezbollah and its Free Patriotic Movement ally refused to accept a change of leadership that might have de-escalated the situation. As a result, as many as half the Lebanese population took to the streets at the height of the demonstrations. Given these circumstances, Mr Hariri had little choice but to resign.

Now that he has quit, Lebanon is running out of time to find a consensus that will end the current crisis. If parliament cannot agree on a new prime minister, Mr Hariri might need to remain in power as head of a caretaker government. This could be a lengthy process taking years. For instance, before president Michel Aoun took up his role, the country was left without a head of state for two years. But even if parliament agrees on another prime minister, there is no guarantee that protesters will be satisfied with the new nominee.

Nor will the government's resignation solve the country’s woes. People on the streets are not rising up against one man, they are demanding the fall of an entire system based on corrupt sectarian politics. Mr Hariri was simply the face of this system, and he was not even one of its worst offenders. He is, in fact, one of the rare political leaders in the country without blood on his hands. Many of Lebanon’s top officials today are warlords turned politicians, including Mr Aoun and parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri.

However, Mr Hariri’s rise to power is indicative of many of the flaws of Lebanon’s political system. He was a businessman for most of his life and only became a political figure in 2005 when he took on the leadership of the Future Movement after the assassination of his father, who was prime minister at the time. He has since been Lebanon’s prime minister twice, leading two unity governments. This tradition of political dynasties is one of the causes of opprobrium from protesters but Mr Hariri’s case is in no way unique. Mr Aoun’s son-in-law Gebran Bassil, who is also foreign minister and leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, has been vying for the presidency for years. Meanwhile, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt announced two years ago that his son Taymour will be his political successor.

Besides political dynasties, Lebanese politicians have been criticised for aligning themselves with regional players. The Hariri family is no exception. They have a good relationship with Saudi Arabia, where the late Hariri used to live and work. This played to his advantage as he was able to negotiate aid packages from Gulf countries and help the Lebanese economy.

His son’s legacy will be one of a plethora of political impasses that propelled him into the position of mediator. Lebanon does not have a two-party system. It is instead governed by a number of parties, none of which have a majority in parliament on their own. The country’s political system relies instead on coalitions between these factions and sectarian-based groups to be able to function.

Despite these difficulties, Mr Hariri often managed to find compromises to get political leaders to resolve their differences.

One of his biggest challenges was Hezbollah’s rising influence in the country, which his party has been unable to counter. Backed into a corner, he has led a unity government since 2016 in which the terrorist group wielded far too much power and left little room for sensible voices to be heard.

With him gone, there is a chance that Hezbollah will take advantage and attempt to find a pro-Iranian replacement for Mr Hariri. This prospect is likely to anger protesters even more but the terror group has not shied away from using violence to intimidate those who oppose it and has already started targeting protesters. A government in which Hezbollah plays an even more powerful role must be avoided at all costs. Mr Hariri’s resignation might be a victory for the protest movement but for now, it is a cosmetic change only. A great mountain of tasks lies ahead of Lebanon’s future leader to put an end to the country’s problems.

How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
  • The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
  • The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
  • The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
  • The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
  • The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

SCHEDULE

Saturday, April 20: 11am to 7pm - Abu Dhabi World Jiu-Jitsu Festival and Para jiu-jitsu.

Sunday, April 21: 11am to 6pm - Abu Dhabi World Youth (female) Jiu-Jitsu Championship.

Monday, April 22: 11am to 6pm - Abu Dhabi World Youth (male) Jiu-Jitsu Championship.

Tuesday, April 23: 11am-6pm Abu Dhabi World Masters Jiu-Jitsu Championship.

Wednesday, April 24: 11am-6pm Abu Dhabi World Professional Jiu-Jitsu Championship.

Thursday, April 25: 11am-5pm Abu Dhabi World Professional Jiu-Jitsu Championship.

Friday, April 26: 3pm to 6pm Finals of the Abu Dhabi World Professional Jiu-Jitsu Championship.

Saturday, April 27: 4pm and 8pm awards ceremony.

Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
 
Started: 2021
 
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
 
Based: Tunisia 
 
Sector: Water technology 
 
Number of staff: 22 
 
Investment raised: $4 million 
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Power: 510hp at 9,000rpm
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Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
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Engine: Duel electric motors
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Emiratisation at work

Emiratisation was introduced in the UAE more than 10 years ago

It aims to boost the number of citizens in the workforce particularly in the private sector.

Growing the number of Emiratis in the workplace will help the UAE reduce dependence on overseas workers

The Cabinet in December last year, approved a national fund for Emirati jobseekers and guaranteed citizens working in the private sector a comparable pension

President Sheikh Khalifa has described Emiratisation as “a true measure for success”.

During the UAE’s 48th National Day, Sheikh Khalifa named education, entrepreneurship, Emiratisation and space travel among cornerstones of national development

More than 80 per cent of Emiratis work in the federal or local government as per 2017 statistics

The Emiratisation programme includes the creation of 20,000 new jobs for UAE citizens

UAE citizens will be given priority in managerial positions in the government sphere

The purpose is to raise the contribution of UAE nationals in the job market and create a diverse workforce of citizens

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe

Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010

Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille

Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm

Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year

Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”

Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners

TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013 

Real estate tokenisation project

Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.

Test

Director: S Sashikanth

Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan

Star rating: 2/5

The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont

Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950

Engine 3.6-litre V6

Gearbox Eight-speed automatic

Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm

Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm

Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km

At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances